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2021-06-28

All 23 US Banks Easily Pass Fed's Stress Test, Setting Stage For Billions In Buybacks<blockquote>所有 23 家美国银行都轻松通过了美联储的压力测试，为数十亿美元的回购奠定了基础</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":127681816,"tweetId":"127681816","gmtCreate":1624846152635,"gmtModify":1633948051178,"author":{"id":3583800505467680,"idStr":"3583800505467680","authorId":3583800505467680,"authorIdStr":"3583800505467680","name":"nailclipper","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd7f7188273b9053103027e7b842d3d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>wa</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>wa</body></html>","text":"wa","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127681816","repostId":1108214079,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108214079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624607367,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108214079?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"All 23 US Banks Easily Pass Fed's Stress Test, Setting Stage For Billions In Buybacks<blockquote>所有 23 家美国银行都轻松通过了美联储的压力测试，为数十亿美元的回购奠定了基础</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108214079","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As wepreviewed earlier, today the Fed would release the latest bank Stress Test results, and as we a","content":"As wepreviewed earlier, today the Fed would release the latest bank Stress Test results, and as we also cynically expected, every bank would pass and sure enough moments ago theFederal Reserve announced that all banks easily clearedtheir annual bill of health, acing their annual stress test which found that banks could suffer almost $500 billion in losses and still comfortably meet capital requirements, setting the scene for hundreds of billions in stock buybacks and dividends.<blockquote>正如我们之前预览的，今天美联储将发布最新的银行压力测试结果，正如我们愤世嫉俗地预期的那样，每家银行都将通过，当然，就在不久前，美联储宣布所有银行都轻松清除了年度健康账单，通过了年度压力测试，发现银行可能遭受近 5000 亿美元的损失，但仍能轻松满足资本要求，为数千亿美元的股票回购和股息创造了条件。</blockquote> The \"test\" showed the country’s biggest banks could withstand $474 billion in losses from loans and other positions, and still emerge with more than double the required high-quality common equity tier one, or CET1, capital relative to their risk-weighted assets.<blockquote>“测试 ”显示，美国最大的银行可以承受 4740 亿美元的贷款和其他头寸损失，但相对于其风险加权资产，其所需的优质普通股一级（CET1）资本仍是所需的两倍多。</blockquote> In a statement published by the Federal Reserve Board, the Fed said that the results of the annual bank stress test showed that large banks \"continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession.\"<blockquote>美联储在美联储发布的一份声明中表示，年度银行压力测试结果显示，大型银行“继续拥有强劲的资本水平，可以在严重衰退期间继续向家庭和企业放贷”。</blockquote> \"Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has run three stress tests with several different hypothetical recessions and all have confirmed that the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery,\" said Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles.<blockquote>监管副主席兰德尔·K·夸尔斯 (Randal K. Quarles) 表示：“在过去的一年里，美联储对几种不同的假设经济衰退进行了三次压力测试，所有测试都证实银行体系有能力支持正在进行的复苏。”</blockquote> All 23 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements,and as laid out previously by the Board, the additional restrictions put in place during the COVID event will end. As a result, all large banks will be subject to the normal restrictions of the Board's stress capital buffer, or SCB, framework.<blockquote>所有接受测试的23家大型银行都远高于基于风险的最低资本要求，正如董事会之前所规定的，COVID事件期间实施的额外限制将结束。因此，所有大型银行都将受到董事会压力资本缓冲（SCB）框架的正常限制。</blockquote> The SCB framework was finalized last year and maintains strong capital requirements in the aggregate for large banks with an increase in requirements for the largest and most complex banks. It sets capital requirements via the stress tests, and as a result, banks are required to hold enough capital to survive a severe recession. If a bank does not stay above its capital requirements, which include the SCB, it is subject to automatic restrictions on capital distributions and discretionary bonus payments.<blockquote>SCB框架于去年最终确定，对大型银行的总体资本要求仍然很高，对最大和最复杂的银行的要求有所增加。它通过压力测试设定资本要求，因此，银行需要持有足够的资本来度过严重的衰退。如果一家银行未能达到其资本要求（包括渣打银行），它将受到资本分配和酌情奖金支付的自动限制。</blockquote> Naturally this is great news,and it means that banks no longer need the Fed's $120BN in monthly QE right?<blockquote>这当然是个好消息，这意味着银行不再需要美联储每月1200亿美元的量化宽松，对吗？</blockquote> Joking aside, having aced their tests the six largest US banks - a group that also includes Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs - will now pay out approximately $142 billion in capital to shareholders, paving the way for them to double total shareholder payouts in the next four quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on estimates provided by analysts at Barclays Plc.<blockquote>玩笑归玩笑，美国六大银行——还包括花旗集团、富国银行、摩根士丹利和高盛——在通过测试后，现在将向股东支付约 1,420 亿美元的资本，为它们在未来四个季度将股东派息总额翻一番铺平道路彭博社根据巴克莱银行分析师提供的估计编制的数据。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0f4f744baea705298a632057a1089d\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> For those wondering just what the Fed \"tested\" for,this year's hypothetical scenarioincludes a \"severe\" global recession with substantial stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets:<blockquote>对于那些想知道美联储“测试”了什么的人来说，今年的假设情景包括“严重”全球衰退，商业房地产和公司债务市场面临巨大压力：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The unemployment rate rises by 4 percentage points to a peak of 10-3/4 percent.</li> <li>Gross domestic product falls 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2022.</li> <li>And asset prices decline sharply, with a 55 percent decline in equity prices (unclear how many trillions the Fed would have to inject in this scenario to stabilize stonks).</li> </ul> Under that scenario, the Fed calculated thatthe 23 large banks would collectively lose more than $470 billion, with nearly $160 billion losses from commercial real estate and corporate loans.<blockquote><ul><li>失业率上升了4个百分点，达到10-3/4%的峰值。</li><li>从2020年第四季度到2022年第三季度，国内生产总值下降了4%。</li><li>资产价格大幅下跌，股票价格下跌了55%（目前尚不清楚在这种情况下，美联储需要注入多少万亿美元来稳定股市）。</li></ul>在这种情况下，美联储计算出23家大型银行将总共损失超过4700亿美元，其中商业房地产和企业贷款损失近1600亿美元。</blockquote> Of banks headquartered in the US, investment banking groups Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suffered the biggest hits to their capital ratios in the stress tests, with declines of 5.9 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. This compared to an average decline of 2.4% points for the 23 banks that underwent the tests, which included the American subsidiaries of foreign banks with significant US operations.<blockquote>在总部位于美国的银行中，投资银行集团高盛和摩根士丹利的资本比率在压力测试中受到的打击最大，分别下降了5.9个和4.7个百分点。相比之下，接受测试的 23 家银行平均下降了 2.4 个百分点，其中包括在美国拥有大量业务的外国银行的美国子公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf2f5302333e2e68ae4bf1a48962627\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Even in a worst case scenario capital ratios would decline to only 10.6%, still more than double their minimum requirements.<blockquote>即使在最坏的情况下，资本比率也会下降到仅10.6%，仍然是最低要求的两倍多。</blockquote> Consumer debt accounted for a smaller portion of overall losses than previous years since most retail customers spent the past year paying down credit cards and other loans during the Covid-19 pandemic. But an increase in expected losses in commercial and industrial loans more than offset that decline. Nearly $160bn of the losses came from commercial real estate and corporate loans.<blockquote>消费者债务在整体损失中所占的比例低于前几年，因为大多数零售客户在过去一年中都在偿还 Covid-19 大流行期间的信用卡和其他贷款。但商业和工业贷款预期损失的增加足以抵消这一下降。近1600亿美元的损失来自商业房地产和企业贷款。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602b5d94c01e097ef93f83f6b70ade10\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> A summary of how the various bank capital ratios would be impact under the Fed's stress scenarios is shown below.<blockquote>下面总结了在美联储压力情景下各种银行资本比率将如何受到影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8a6aa543d4ad0e3d044e4397a77ad2c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"961\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Fed also said that, as expected, it would lift pandemic restrictions on bank share buybacks and dividends on June 30th after banks clear stress tests.<blockquote>美联储还表示，正如预期的那样，在银行通过压力测试后，将于6月30日取消对银行股票回购和股息的疫情限制。</blockquote> The next step is on Monday, June 28: the Fed expects banks to wait until then to analyze the results of the stress tests before announcing any plans for new shareholder payouts, according to senior Fed officials. Then, after the market close, banks can unveil their capital distribution plans. From the tests, the Fed will also prescribe for each bank how much CET1 capital in excess of regulatory minimums they need to keep through a so-called stress capital buffer. The CET1 ratio measured against risk-weighted assets is a crucial benchmark of financial stability.<blockquote>下一步是6月28日星期一：美联储高级官员表示，美联储预计银行将等到那时分析压力测试结果，然后再宣布任何新的股东派息计划。然后，在市场收盘后，银行可以公布他们的资本分配计划。根据测试，美联储还将为每家银行规定超过监管最低限额的 CET1 资本，他们需要通过所谓的压力资本缓冲来保持多少。以风险加权资产衡量的CET1比率是金融稳定的重要基准。</blockquote> Barclays analysts estimate the median bank out of the 20 relevant institutions it covers will return over 100 per cent of its earnings to shareholders over the next year, with capital returned to investors approaching $200bn.<blockquote>巴克莱分析师估计，其覆盖的 20 家相关机构中的中位数银行明年将向股东返还超过 100% 的收益，返还给投资者的资本接近 2000 亿美元。</blockquote> In immediate response, the market - which knew the outcome of the test well in advance - bid up bank stocks which rose in postmarket trading, with Bank of America leading the rally among big banks, rising 1.6%; Morgan Stanley +1%, Citigroup +0.9% and Wells Fargo +0.8%, JPMorgan +0.7%, Goldman Sachs +0.6%.<blockquote>市场立即做出反应，提前知道测试结果的市场推高了盘后交易中上涨的银行股，其中美国银行在大银行中领涨，上涨 1.6%；摩根士丹利+1%，花旗集团+0.9%，富国银行+0.8%，摩根大通+0.7%，高盛+0.6%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c7c394ce7aae8679dfe85b5e987060\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a670e03c93a58825a2398a12f3756c6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> And while all of the above was exactly as expected, overnight Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Poszar warned of a potentially troubling twist.<blockquote>尽管上述所有情况完全符合预期，但隔夜瑞士信贷回购大师佐尔坦·波萨尔 (Zoltan Poszar) 警告称，可能会出现令人不安的转折。</blockquote> In his latest Global Money Dispatch, Pozsar notes that among other things, today's stress test results will determine the stress capital buffers (SCB) large banks will have to hold in 2022, which will affect their CET1 minimums. Naturally,lower SCBs allow the largest U.S. banks to run with higher G-SIB surcharges, and this trade-off is particularly important for J.P. Morgan.According to Pozsar,&nbsp; the bank will be more willing to let its G-SIB surcharge climb to 5% this year from 4% last year if its SCB comes in around 2.5%, down from 3.3% currently. As a result, today's release may have \"a big impact on the pricing of the year-end turn in FX swaps: if J.P. Morgan’s SCB drops a lot, year-end premia might shrink a lot from here.\"<blockquote>波萨尔在最新的《全球货币快报》中指出，除其他外，今天的压力测试结果将决定大型银行在 2022 年必须持有的压力资本缓冲 (SCB)，这将影响其 CET1 最低限额。自然，较低的 SCB 允许美国最大的银行以较高的 G-SIB 附加费运营，这种权衡对摩根大通来说尤为重要。Pozsar 表示，如果其 SCB 从目前的 3.3% 降至 2.5% 左右，那么该银行将更愿意让其 G-SIB 附加费从去年的 4% 攀升至今年的 5%。因此，今天的发布可能会有“这将对外汇掉期年终转折的定价产生重大影响： 如果摩根大通的渣打银行大幅下跌，年终溢价可能会从这里大幅缩水。”</blockquote> There's more: looking ahead to the June 30 expiration of stock buyback limitations, the Hungarian repo guru writes thatthe upcoming wave of buybacks \"destroy balance sheet capacity in the banking system\" as banks that return capital to shareholders have less capital to leverage up.<blockquote>还有更多：展望股票回购限制将于 6 月 30 日到期，匈牙利回购大师写道即将到来的回购浪潮“摧毁了银行体系的资产负债表能力”，因为向股东返还资本的银行可以杠杆化的资本较少。</blockquote> Here's the math:with a 5% Supplemental Liquidity Ratio minimum at the holdco level,banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10 billion in stock buybacks means $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits.<blockquote>数学如下：控股公司级别的最低补充流动性比率为 5%，银行的杠杆率是银行的 20 倍，这意味着 100 亿美元的股票回购意味着银行对准备金、国债、MBS 和存款的需求减少了 2000 亿美元。</blockquote> This means that as banks rush to handout cash to shareholders, they will be forced to park even more reserves elsewhere... like for example the Fed's reverse repo facility. This “push” by banks to shed capacity and potentially some deposits will meet the “sucking sound” of the RRP facility in coming weeks. It comes as usage of the Fed's reverse repo facility has been rising by tens of billions daily and on Wednesday just hit a record $813.6 billion.<blockquote>这意味着，随着银行急于向股东发放现金，它们将被迫将更多准备金存放在其他地方……比如美联储的逆回购工具。未来几周，银行 “推动 ”产能和潜在的部分存款，这将满足 RRP 设施的 “吮吸声 ”。与此同时，美联储逆回购工具的使用量每天增加数百亿美元，周三刚刚达到创纪录的 8,136 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391bdb2316b81ed40abaf3e0280d35a1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Now imagine what will happen to the RRP facility if banks indeed proceed to repurchase $142BN in stock; applying Pozsar's 20x leverage multiple, this means that bank balance sheets will shrink by just under $3 trillion, including trillions in reserves which will have to be parked at the Fed, which also means that in the coming weeks usage on the Fed's reserve facility is set to explode to unprecedented levels. This in turn will only accelerate the next funding crisis (now that the banking system has shifted from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market) thanks to the Fed's IOER/RRP rate hike), as we described in \"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis.\"<blockquote>现在想象一下，如果银行确实开始回购 1,420 亿美元的股票，RRP 便利会发生什么；应用波萨尔的 20 倍杠杆倍数，这意味着银行资产负债表将缩水近 3 万亿美元，其中包括必须存放在美联储的数万亿美元储备，这也意味着未来几周美联储的使用量将激增至前所未有的水平。这反过来只会加速下一次融资危机（现在银行体系已从资产受限（存款涌入，但除了美联储之外无处借贷）转变为负债受限（存款正在溜走，除了货币市场）由于美联储的 IOER/RRP 加息），正如我们在“鲍威尔刚刚发射了 2 万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释了美联储如何开始下一次回购危机。”</blockquote> One final technical consideration from Zoltan is that the flattening of the yield curve in recent days hit bank stocks,so banks may start buybacks on July 1st, which means banks might choose to stay liquid around quarter-end.This will be an extra factor to consider in pricing the June quarter-end turn.<blockquote>Zoltan 的最后一个技术考虑是，最近几天收益率曲线的扁平化打击了银行股，因此，银行可能会在 7 月 1 日开始回购，这意味着银行可能会选择在季度末左右保持流动性。这将是六月季度末定价时需要考虑的额外因素。</blockquote> As Pozsar concludes,\"ample liquidity is ample only if banks are willing to trade it, and trading liquidity means giving it up, which large banks might not want to do when the “pull” of the o/n RRP facility can complicate re-starting buybacks as early as July 1st.\"<blockquote>波萨尔总结道，“只有银行愿意交易流动性，充足的流动性才是充足的，而交易流动性就意味着放弃流动性，而当 o/n RRP 便利的‘拉力’可能会使最早在 7 月 1 日重新启动回购变得复杂时，大型银行可能不想这样做。\"</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll 23 US Banks Easily Pass Fed's Stress Test, Setting Stage For Billions In Buybacks<blockquote>所有 23 家美国银行都轻松通过了美联储的压力测试，为数十亿美元的回购奠定了基础</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-25 15:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs wepreviewed earlier, today the Fed would release the latest bank Stress Test results, and as we also cynically expected, every bank would pass and sure enough moments ago theFederal Reserve announced that all banks easily clearedtheir annual bill of health, acing their annual stress test which found that banks could suffer almost $500 billion in losses and still comfortably meet capital requirements, setting the scene for hundreds of billions in stock buybacks and dividends.<blockquote>正如我们之前预览的，今天美联储将发布最新的银行压力测试结果，正如我们愤世嫉俗地预期的那样，每家银行都将通过，当然，就在不久前，美联储宣布所有银行都轻松清除了年度健康账单，通过了年度压力测试，发现银行可能遭受近 5000 亿美元的损失，但仍能轻松满足资本要求，为数千亿美元的股票回购和股息创造了条件。</blockquote> The \"test\" showed the country’s biggest banks could withstand $474 billion in losses from loans and other positions, and still emerge with more than double the required high-quality common equity tier one, or CET1, capital relative to their risk-weighted assets.<blockquote>“测试 ”显示，美国最大的银行可以承受 4740 亿美元的贷款和其他头寸损失，但相对于其风险加权资产，其所需的优质普通股一级（CET1）资本仍是所需的两倍多。</blockquote> In a statement published by the Federal Reserve Board, the Fed said that the results of the annual bank stress test showed that large banks \"continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession.\"<blockquote>美联储在美联储发布的一份声明中表示，年度银行压力测试结果显示，大型银行“继续拥有强劲的资本水平，可以在严重衰退期间继续向家庭和企业放贷”。</blockquote> \"Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has run three stress tests with several different hypothetical recessions and all have confirmed that the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery,\" said Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles.<blockquote>监管副主席兰德尔·K·夸尔斯 (Randal K. Quarles) 表示：“在过去的一年里，美联储对几种不同的假设经济衰退进行了三次压力测试，所有测试都证实银行体系有能力支持正在进行的复苏。”</blockquote> All 23 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements,and as laid out previously by the Board, the additional restrictions put in place during the COVID event will end. As a result, all large banks will be subject to the normal restrictions of the Board's stress capital buffer, or SCB, framework.<blockquote>所有接受测试的23家大型银行都远高于基于风险的最低资本要求，正如董事会之前所规定的，COVID事件期间实施的额外限制将结束。因此，所有大型银行都将受到董事会压力资本缓冲（SCB）框架的正常限制。</blockquote> The SCB framework was finalized last year and maintains strong capital requirements in the aggregate for large banks with an increase in requirements for the largest and most complex banks. It sets capital requirements via the stress tests, and as a result, banks are required to hold enough capital to survive a severe recession. If a bank does not stay above its capital requirements, which include the SCB, it is subject to automatic restrictions on capital distributions and discretionary bonus payments.<blockquote>SCB框架于去年最终确定，对大型银行的总体资本要求仍然很高，对最大和最复杂的银行的要求有所增加。它通过压力测试设定资本要求，因此，银行需要持有足够的资本来度过严重的衰退。如果一家银行未能达到其资本要求（包括渣打银行），它将受到资本分配和酌情奖金支付的自动限制。</blockquote> Naturally this is great news,and it means that banks no longer need the Fed's $120BN in monthly QE right?<blockquote>这当然是个好消息，这意味着银行不再需要美联储每月1200亿美元的量化宽松，对吗？</blockquote> Joking aside, having aced their tests the six largest US banks - a group that also includes Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs - will now pay out approximately $142 billion in capital to shareholders, paving the way for them to double total shareholder payouts in the next four quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on estimates provided by analysts at Barclays Plc.<blockquote>玩笑归玩笑，美国六大银行——还包括花旗集团、富国银行、摩根士丹利和高盛——在通过测试后，现在将向股东支付约 1,420 亿美元的资本，为它们在未来四个季度将股东派息总额翻一番铺平道路彭博社根据巴克莱银行分析师提供的估计编制的数据。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0f4f744baea705298a632057a1089d\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> For those wondering just what the Fed \"tested\" for,this year's hypothetical scenarioincludes a \"severe\" global recession with substantial stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets:<blockquote>对于那些想知道美联储“测试”了什么的人来说，今年的假设情景包括“严重”全球衰退，商业房地产和公司债务市场面临巨大压力：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The unemployment rate rises by 4 percentage points to a peak of 10-3/4 percent.</li> <li>Gross domestic product falls 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2022.</li> <li>And asset prices decline sharply, with a 55 percent decline in equity prices (unclear how many trillions the Fed would have to inject in this scenario to stabilize stonks).</li> </ul> Under that scenario, the Fed calculated thatthe 23 large banks would collectively lose more than $470 billion, with nearly $160 billion losses from commercial real estate and corporate loans.<blockquote><ul><li>失业率上升了4个百分点，达到10-3/4%的峰值。</li><li>从2020年第四季度到2022年第三季度，国内生产总值下降了4%。</li><li>资产价格大幅下跌，股票价格下跌了55%（目前尚不清楚在这种情况下，美联储需要注入多少万亿美元来稳定股市）。</li></ul>在这种情况下，美联储计算出23家大型银行将总共损失超过4700亿美元，其中商业房地产和企业贷款损失近1600亿美元。</blockquote> Of banks headquartered in the US, investment banking groups Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suffered the biggest hits to their capital ratios in the stress tests, with declines of 5.9 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. This compared to an average decline of 2.4% points for the 23 banks that underwent the tests, which included the American subsidiaries of foreign banks with significant US operations.<blockquote>在总部位于美国的银行中，投资银行集团高盛和摩根士丹利的资本比率在压力测试中受到的打击最大，分别下降了5.9个和4.7个百分点。相比之下，接受测试的 23 家银行平均下降了 2.4 个百分点，其中包括在美国拥有大量业务的外国银行的美国子公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf2f5302333e2e68ae4bf1a48962627\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Even in a worst case scenario capital ratios would decline to only 10.6%, still more than double their minimum requirements.<blockquote>即使在最坏的情况下，资本比率也会下降到仅10.6%，仍然是最低要求的两倍多。</blockquote> Consumer debt accounted for a smaller portion of overall losses than previous years since most retail customers spent the past year paying down credit cards and other loans during the Covid-19 pandemic. But an increase in expected losses in commercial and industrial loans more than offset that decline. Nearly $160bn of the losses came from commercial real estate and corporate loans.<blockquote>消费者债务在整体损失中所占的比例低于前几年，因为大多数零售客户在过去一年中都在偿还 Covid-19 大流行期间的信用卡和其他贷款。但商业和工业贷款预期损失的增加足以抵消这一下降。近1600亿美元的损失来自商业房地产和企业贷款。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602b5d94c01e097ef93f83f6b70ade10\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> A summary of how the various bank capital ratios would be impact under the Fed's stress scenarios is shown below.<blockquote>下面总结了在美联储压力情景下各种银行资本比率将如何受到影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8a6aa543d4ad0e3d044e4397a77ad2c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"961\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Fed also said that, as expected, it would lift pandemic restrictions on bank share buybacks and dividends on June 30th after banks clear stress tests.<blockquote>美联储还表示，正如预期的那样，在银行通过压力测试后，将于6月30日取消对银行股票回购和股息的疫情限制。</blockquote> The next step is on Monday, June 28: the Fed expects banks to wait until then to analyze the results of the stress tests before announcing any plans for new shareholder payouts, according to senior Fed officials. Then, after the market close, banks can unveil their capital distribution plans. From the tests, the Fed will also prescribe for each bank how much CET1 capital in excess of regulatory minimums they need to keep through a so-called stress capital buffer. The CET1 ratio measured against risk-weighted assets is a crucial benchmark of financial stability.<blockquote>下一步是6月28日星期一：美联储高级官员表示，美联储预计银行将等到那时分析压力测试结果，然后再宣布任何新的股东派息计划。然后，在市场收盘后，银行可以公布他们的资本分配计划。根据测试，美联储还将为每家银行规定超过监管最低限额的 CET1 资本，他们需要通过所谓的压力资本缓冲来保持多少。以风险加权资产衡量的CET1比率是金融稳定的重要基准。</blockquote> Barclays analysts estimate the median bank out of the 20 relevant institutions it covers will return over 100 per cent of its earnings to shareholders over the next year, with capital returned to investors approaching $200bn.<blockquote>巴克莱分析师估计，其覆盖的 20 家相关机构中的中位数银行明年将向股东返还超过 100% 的收益，返还给投资者的资本接近 2000 亿美元。</blockquote> In immediate response, the market - which knew the outcome of the test well in advance - bid up bank stocks which rose in postmarket trading, with Bank of America leading the rally among big banks, rising 1.6%; Morgan Stanley +1%, Citigroup +0.9% and Wells Fargo +0.8%, JPMorgan +0.7%, Goldman Sachs +0.6%.<blockquote>市场立即做出反应，提前知道测试结果的市场推高了盘后交易中上涨的银行股，其中美国银行在大银行中领涨，上涨 1.6%；摩根士丹利+1%，花旗集团+0.9%，富国银行+0.8%，摩根大通+0.7%，高盛+0.6%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c7c394ce7aae8679dfe85b5e987060\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a670e03c93a58825a2398a12f3756c6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> And while all of the above was exactly as expected, overnight Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Poszar warned of a potentially troubling twist.<blockquote>尽管上述所有情况完全符合预期，但隔夜瑞士信贷回购大师佐尔坦·波萨尔 (Zoltan Poszar) 警告称，可能会出现令人不安的转折。</blockquote> In his latest Global Money Dispatch, Pozsar notes that among other things, today's stress test results will determine the stress capital buffers (SCB) large banks will have to hold in 2022, which will affect their CET1 minimums. Naturally,lower SCBs allow the largest U.S. banks to run with higher G-SIB surcharges, and this trade-off is particularly important for J.P. Morgan.According to Pozsar,&nbsp; the bank will be more willing to let its G-SIB surcharge climb to 5% this year from 4% last year if its SCB comes in around 2.5%, down from 3.3% currently. As a result, today's release may have \"a big impact on the pricing of the year-end turn in FX swaps: if J.P. Morgan’s SCB drops a lot, year-end premia might shrink a lot from here.\"<blockquote>波萨尔在最新的《全球货币快报》中指出，除其他外，今天的压力测试结果将决定大型银行在 2022 年必须持有的压力资本缓冲 (SCB)，这将影响其 CET1 最低限额。自然，较低的 SCB 允许美国最大的银行以较高的 G-SIB 附加费运营，这种权衡对摩根大通来说尤为重要。Pozsar 表示，如果其 SCB 从目前的 3.3% 降至 2.5% 左右，那么该银行将更愿意让其 G-SIB 附加费从去年的 4% 攀升至今年的 5%。因此，今天的发布可能会有“这将对外汇掉期年终转折的定价产生重大影响： 如果摩根大通的渣打银行大幅下跌，年终溢价可能会从这里大幅缩水。”</blockquote> There's more: looking ahead to the June 30 expiration of stock buyback limitations, the Hungarian repo guru writes thatthe upcoming wave of buybacks \"destroy balance sheet capacity in the banking system\" as banks that return capital to shareholders have less capital to leverage up.<blockquote>还有更多：展望股票回购限制将于 6 月 30 日到期，匈牙利回购大师写道即将到来的回购浪潮“摧毁了银行体系的资产负债表能力”，因为向股东返还资本的银行可以杠杆化的资本较少。</blockquote> Here's the math:with a 5% Supplemental Liquidity Ratio minimum at the holdco level,banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10 billion in stock buybacks means $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits.<blockquote>数学如下：控股公司级别的最低补充流动性比率为 5%，银行的杠杆率是银行的 20 倍，这意味着 100 亿美元的股票回购意味着银行对准备金、国债、MBS 和存款的需求减少了 2000 亿美元。</blockquote> This means that as banks rush to handout cash to shareholders, they will be forced to park even more reserves elsewhere... like for example the Fed's reverse repo facility. This “push” by banks to shed capacity and potentially some deposits will meet the “sucking sound” of the RRP facility in coming weeks. It comes as usage of the Fed's reverse repo facility has been rising by tens of billions daily and on Wednesday just hit a record $813.6 billion.<blockquote>这意味着，随着银行急于向股东发放现金，它们将被迫将更多准备金存放在其他地方……比如美联储的逆回购工具。未来几周，银行 “推动 ”产能和潜在的部分存款，这将满足 RRP 设施的 “吮吸声 ”。与此同时，美联储逆回购工具的使用量每天增加数百亿美元，周三刚刚达到创纪录的 8,136 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391bdb2316b81ed40abaf3e0280d35a1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Now imagine what will happen to the RRP facility if banks indeed proceed to repurchase $142BN in stock; applying Pozsar's 20x leverage multiple, this means that bank balance sheets will shrink by just under $3 trillion, including trillions in reserves which will have to be parked at the Fed, which also means that in the coming weeks usage on the Fed's reserve facility is set to explode to unprecedented levels. This in turn will only accelerate the next funding crisis (now that the banking system has shifted from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market) thanks to the Fed's IOER/RRP rate hike), as we described in \"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis.\"<blockquote>现在想象一下，如果银行确实开始回购 1,420 亿美元的股票，RRP 便利会发生什么；应用波萨尔的 20 倍杠杆倍数，这意味着银行资产负债表将缩水近 3 万亿美元，其中包括必须存放在美联储的数万亿美元储备，这也意味着未来几周美联储的使用量将激增至前所未有的水平。这反过来只会加速下一次融资危机（现在银行体系已从资产受限（存款涌入，但除了美联储之外无处借贷）转变为负债受限（存款正在溜走，除了货币市场）由于美联储的 IOER/RRP 加息），正如我们在“鲍威尔刚刚发射了 2 万亿美元的“寻热导弹”：佐尔坦解释了美联储如何开始下一次回购危机。”</blockquote> One final technical consideration from Zoltan is that the flattening of the yield curve in recent days hit bank stocks,so banks may start buybacks on July 1st, which means banks might choose to stay liquid around quarter-end.This will be an extra factor to consider in pricing the June quarter-end turn.<blockquote>Zoltan 的最后一个技术考虑是，最近几天收益率曲线的扁平化打击了银行股，因此，银行可能会在 7 月 1 日开始回购，这意味着银行可能会选择在季度末左右保持流动性。这将是六月季度末定价时需要考虑的额外因素。</blockquote> As Pozsar concludes,\"ample liquidity is ample only if banks are willing to trade it, and trading liquidity means giving it up, which large banks might not want to do when the “pull” of the o/n RRP facility can complicate re-starting buybacks as early as July 1st.\"<blockquote>波萨尔总结道，“只有银行愿意交易流动性，充足的流动性才是充足的，而交易流动性就意味着放弃流动性，而当 o/n RRP 便利的‘拉力’可能会使最早在 7 月 1 日重新启动回购变得复杂时，大型银行可能不想这样做。\"</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-23-us-banks-easily-pass-feds-stress-test-setting-stage-billions-buybacks\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","C":"花旗","BAC":"美国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-23-us-banks-easily-pass-feds-stress-test-setting-stage-billions-buybacks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108214079","content_text":"As wepreviewed earlier, today the Fed would release the latest bank Stress Test results, and as we also cynically expected, every bank would pass and sure enough moments ago theFederal Reserve announced that all banks easily clearedtheir annual bill of health, acing their annual stress test which found that banks could suffer almost $500 billion in losses and still comfortably meet capital requirements, setting the scene for hundreds of billions in stock buybacks and dividends.\nThe \"test\" showed the country’s biggest banks could withstand $474 billion in losses from loans and other positions, and still emerge with more than double the required high-quality common equity tier one, or CET1, capital relative to their risk-weighted assets.\nIn a statement published by the Federal Reserve Board, the Fed said that the results of the annual bank stress test showed that large banks \"continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession.\"\n\"Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has run three stress tests with several different hypothetical recessions and all have confirmed that the banking system is strongly positioned to support the ongoing recovery,\" said Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles.\nAll 23 large banks tested remained well above their risk-based minimum capital requirements,and as laid out previously by the Board, the additional restrictions put in place during the COVID event will end. As a result, all large banks will be subject to the normal restrictions of the Board's stress capital buffer, or SCB, framework.\nThe SCB framework was finalized last year and maintains strong capital requirements in the aggregate for large banks with an increase in requirements for the largest and most complex banks. It sets capital requirements via the stress tests, and as a result, banks are required to hold enough capital to survive a severe recession. If a bank does not stay above its capital requirements, which include the SCB, it is subject to automatic restrictions on capital distributions and discretionary bonus payments.\nNaturally this is great news,and it means that banks no longer need the Fed's $120BN in monthly QE right?\nJoking aside, having aced their tests the six largest US banks - a group that also includes Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs - will now pay out approximately $142 billion in capital to shareholders, paving the way for them to double total shareholder payouts in the next four quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on estimates provided by analysts at Barclays Plc.\n\nFor those wondering just what the Fed \"tested\" for,this year's hypothetical scenarioincludes a \"severe\" global recession with substantial stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets:\n\nThe unemployment rate rises by 4 percentage points to a peak of 10-3/4 percent.\nGross domestic product falls 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2022.\nAnd asset prices decline sharply, with a 55 percent decline in equity prices (unclear how many trillions the Fed would have to inject in this scenario to stabilize stonks).\n\nUnder that scenario, the Fed calculated thatthe 23 large banks would collectively lose more than $470 billion, with nearly $160 billion losses from commercial real estate and corporate loans.\nOf banks headquartered in the US, investment banking groups Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley suffered the biggest hits to their capital ratios in the stress tests, with declines of 5.9 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. This compared to an average decline of 2.4% points for the 23 banks that underwent the tests, which included the American subsidiaries of foreign banks with significant US operations.\n\nEven in a worst case scenario capital ratios would decline to only 10.6%, still more than double their minimum requirements.\nConsumer debt accounted for a smaller portion of overall losses than previous years since most retail customers spent the past year paying down credit cards and other loans during the Covid-19 pandemic. But an increase in expected losses in commercial and industrial loans more than offset that decline. Nearly $160bn of the losses came from commercial real estate and corporate loans.\n\nA summary of how the various bank capital ratios would be impact under the Fed's stress scenarios is shown below.\n\nThe Fed also said that, as expected, it would lift pandemic restrictions on bank share buybacks and dividends on June 30th after banks clear stress tests.\nThe next step is on Monday, June 28: the Fed expects banks to wait until then to analyze the results of the stress tests before announcing any plans for new shareholder payouts, according to senior Fed officials. Then, after the market close, banks can unveil their capital distribution plans. From the tests, the Fed will also prescribe for each bank how much CET1 capital in excess of regulatory minimums they need to keep through a so-called stress capital buffer. The CET1 ratio measured against risk-weighted assets is a crucial benchmark of financial stability.\nBarclays analysts estimate the median bank out of the 20 relevant institutions it covers will return over 100 per cent of its earnings to shareholders over the next year, with capital returned to investors approaching $200bn.\nIn immediate response, the market - which knew the outcome of the test well in advance - bid up bank stocks which rose in postmarket trading, with Bank of America leading the rally among big banks, rising 1.6%; Morgan Stanley +1%, Citigroup +0.9% and Wells Fargo +0.8%, JPMorgan +0.7%, Goldman Sachs +0.6%.\n\n* * *\nAnd while all of the above was exactly as expected, overnight Credit Suisse repo guru Zoltan Poszar warned of a potentially troubling twist.\nIn his latest Global Money Dispatch, Pozsar notes that among other things, today's stress test results will determine the stress capital buffers (SCB) large banks will have to hold in 2022, which will affect their CET1 minimums. Naturally,lower SCBs allow the largest U.S. banks to run with higher G-SIB surcharges, and this trade-off is particularly important for J.P. Morgan.According to Pozsar,  the bank will be more willing to let its G-SIB surcharge climb to 5% this year from 4% last year if its SCB comes in around 2.5%, down from 3.3% currently. As a result, today's release may have \"a big impact on the pricing of the year-end turn in FX swaps: if J.P. Morgan’s SCB drops a lot, year-end premia might shrink a lot from here.\"\nThere's more: looking ahead to the June 30 expiration of stock buyback limitations, the Hungarian repo guru writes thatthe upcoming wave of buybacks \"destroy balance sheet capacity in the banking system\" as banks that return capital to shareholders have less capital to leverage up.\nHere's the math:with a 5% Supplemental Liquidity Ratio minimum at the holdco level,banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10 billion in stock buybacks means $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits.\nThis means that as banks rush to handout cash to shareholders, they will be forced to park even more reserves elsewhere... like for example the Fed's reverse repo facility. This “push” by banks to shed capacity and potentially some deposits will meet the “sucking sound” of the RRP facility in coming weeks. It comes as usage of the Fed's reverse repo facility has been rising by tens of billions daily and on Wednesday just hit a record $813.6 billion.\n\nNow imagine what will happen to the RRP facility if banks indeed proceed to repurchase $142BN in stock; applying Pozsar's 20x leverage multiple, this means that bank balance sheets will shrink by just under $3 trillion, including trillions in reserves which will have to be parked at the Fed, which also means that in the coming weeks usage on the Fed's reserve facility is set to explode to unprecedented levels. This in turn will only accelerate the next funding crisis (now that the banking system has shifted from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market) thanks to the Fed's IOER/RRP rate hike), as we described in \"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis.\"\nOne final technical consideration from Zoltan is that the flattening of the yield curve in recent days hit bank stocks,so banks may start buybacks on July 1st, which means banks might choose to stay liquid around quarter-end.This will be an extra factor to consider in pricing the June quarter-end turn.\nAs Pozsar concludes,\"ample liquidity is ample only if banks are willing to trade it, and trading liquidity means giving it up, which large banks might not want to do when the “pull” of the o/n RRP facility can complicate re-starting buybacks as early as July 1st.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"KBE":0.9,"MS":0.9,"C":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/127681816"}