Like and comment_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-06-28

Like and comment

The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":127230517,"tweetId":"127230517","gmtCreate":1624850000239,"gmtModify":1633947984943,"author":{"id":4087537231786360,"idStr":"4087537231786360","authorId":4087537231786360,"authorIdStr":"4087537231786360","name":"76666aa1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":21,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127230517","repostId":1177492181,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177492181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624849703,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177492181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177492181","media":"WSJ","summary":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has ","content":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.<blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.<blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.<blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.<blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.<blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.<blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.<blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.<blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.<blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.<blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”<blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.<blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.<blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Hasn’t Been This Placid in Years<blockquote>股市多年来从未如此平静过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nWSJ2021-06-28 11:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.<blockquote>美国股市表面上尽可能平静，但背后却比几十年来更加动荡。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&amp;P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.<blockquote>标普500如此安静，几乎令人不安。自 10 月底以来，该指数从未根据收盘价进行过 5% 的调整；难怪开始锁定购买股票的新日内交易者认为市场只会上涨。标准普尔上一次如此平静是在 2017 年，那是一段平静时期，随着 2018 年初的波动性崩盘而结束——尽管当时平静的时间甚至更长。</blockquote> Yet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.<blockquote>然而，看看各类股票的表现，它们的波动幅度比平时要大得多。投资者一直在以危机之外前所未有的速度在行业之间转换押注；3月份出现了自2002年以来表现最好和最差的行业之间的最大差距。</blockquote> The link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.<blockquote>以相关性衡量，成长型股票和廉价“价值”股票之间的联系是自 1995 年以来最弱的；投资者正在利用它们作为押注经济复苏或反对经济复苏的代理人。</blockquote> Meanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.<blockquote>与此同时，大盘股和小盘股上一次如此独立地走势是在 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，这从来都不是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote> I think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.<blockquote>我认为这是蒂娜的另一个方面：除了股票没有其他选择。由于国债、公司债券和现金回报率微薄或为零，股票提供了最大的收益希望。以前会将资金从股票转向债券，反之亦然的投资者现在只是从一种股票转向另一种股票——因此一种股票的下跌会被另一种股票的上涨所抵消。</blockquote> There is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.<blockquote>当然，不能保证它会继续这样下去。让足够的恐惧发挥作用，无论现金收益率有多低，投资者都会赶紧退出，就像他们去年 3 月所做的那样。但是，尽管形势看起来很好，但很难证明购买收益率远低于通货膨胀率的长期债券是合理的。时光看起来确实不错。</blockquote> A widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.<blockquote>持谨慎态度的人普遍认为，股市之所以持续上涨，是因为廉价资金和政府刺激措施助长了巨大的泡沫。自 2000 年以来，股票从未如此昂贵，而时尚股票的疯狂过度交易则明显带有泡沫心态。一组深受散户交易员欢迎的小型股票经常出现在今年交易量最大的榜单上，特别是 GameStoPandAMC Entertainment，但也有维珍银河和黑莓等热门股票。</blockquote> It is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&amp;P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.<blockquote>不可否认，股票比平时贵得多。但泡沫在膨胀时通常会有很大的波动性，而不是外表平静、内心动荡，因为价格的每一次小幅下跌都会被其他人放大，他们担心泡沫即将破裂。1999年，标普500至少有9次跌幅超过5%，从7月份的盘中峰值到10月份的低点，跌幅达13%。</blockquote> This time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.<blockquote>这一次，对股市最明显的威胁是美联储，而不是市场的高估。如果美联储加息，现金和债券突然看起来更具吸引力，蒂娜购买异常昂贵股票的理由就会被削弱。</blockquote> “You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”<blockquote>“花旗集团首席全球股票策略师罗伯特-巴克兰（Robert Buckland）说：”市场内部波动很大，但市场波动却不大。“如果除了拥有指数之外还有其他选择，情况可能会有所改变”。</blockquote> This month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&amp;P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.<blockquote>本月的美联储恐慌表明，当股票还有其他选择时，股票价格是多么敏感。美联储在吸收现金的逆回购协议（一种隔夜担保存款）中提供 0.05% 而不是 0% 的利率，略低于底线，并立即额外吸收了 2350 亿美元。关于两年内加息而不是之前预测的三年的说法增加了股市的压力，标准普尔指数在三天内下跌了 2% 多一点，然后恢复了向上攀升。</blockquote> If that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.<blockquote>如果这是对美联储几乎什么都没做的反应，想象一下，如果美联储开始正常的加息周期并使现金再次具有吸引力，市场会有多害怕。我认为这种情况不太可能很快发生，但可能将市场深处的动荡带到表面的头号威胁是美联储。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj\">WSJ</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-placid-in-years-11624740199?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177492181","content_text":"The U.S. stock marketis as calm as can beon the surface, while churning underneath more than it has in decades.\nThe S&P 500 is so quiet it is almost disconcerting. The index hasn’t had a 5% correction based on closing prices since the end of October; no wonder the new day traders who started buying shares in lockdown think the market only goes up. The last time the S&P was this serene for so long was in 2017, a period of calm that ended with the volatility crash early in 2018—although back then it was even quieter for much longer.\nYet, look at the performance of types of stocks, and they have been swinging around much more than they usually do. Investors have been switching their bets between industries at a pace not seen outside of crises; March brought the biggest gap between the best and worst-performing sectors since 2002.\nThe link between moves in growth stocks and cheap “value” stocks is the weakest—measured by the correlation—since 1995; investors are using them as proxies for betting for or against economic recovery.\nMeanwhile, big and small stocks last moved so independently of each other during the dot-com bubble of 2000, never a reassuring sign.\nI think this is another aspect of TINA: There Is No Alternative to stocks. With Treasurys, corporate bonds and cashoffering meager or zero return, stocks offer the best hope of gains. Investors who would previously have shifted money from stocks to bonds or vice versa now just switch from one sort of stock to another—so falls in one are offset by gains in another.\nThere is no guarantee that it continues this way, of course. Bring enough fear into play and investors will bolt for the exits no matter how low cash yields are, just as they did in March last year. But while times seem pretty good, it is hard to justify buying a long-dated bond yielding far less than inflation. And times do seem pretty good.\nA widespread theory among those of a cautious disposition is that stocks just keep going up because a massive bubble has been inflated by cheap money and government stimulus. Stocks haven’t been so expensive since 2000, while a bubble mentality is obvious in the wild overtrading of fashionable stocks. A cluster of small stocks popular with retail tradershas often featured at the topof the most-traded lists this year, notablyGameStopandAMC Entertainmentbut also favorites such as Virgin Galactic andBlackBerry.\nIt is undeniable that stocks are far more expensive than usual. But bubbles usually involve lots of volatility as they inflate, not a calm exterior and turmoil within, because every little price drop is magnified by others fearful that the bubble is about to pop. In 1999 there were at least nine drops of more than 5% in the S&P 500, and from its intraday peak in July to the October low it fell 13%.\nThis time the most obvious threat to stocks is the Federal Reserve, rather than the market’s overvaluation. If the Fed raises rates, cash and bonds suddenly look much more attractive, and the TINA justification for buying extraordinarily expensive stocks is undermined.\n“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market but not a lot of volatility of the market,” says Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citigroup. “If there’s an alternative to just owning the index that could change.”\nThis month’s Fed scare showed just how sensitive stock prices are when it turns out there is an alternative to stocks, of sorts. The Fedraised rates fractionally off the floorby offering 0.05% instead of 0% on its cash-absorbing reverse repurchase agreements, a kind of overnight secured deposit, and instantly sucked in $235 billion extra. Talk of rate increases coming in two years instead of the three previously projected added to pressure on stocks, and the S&P fell just over 2% in three days before resuming its upward climb.\nIf that was the reaction to the Fed just barely doing something close to nothing, imagine how scared the market would be if the Fed started a normal rate hiking cycle and made cash attractive again. It isn’t something I think is likely soon, but the number one threat that could bring the turmoil from the depths to the surface of this market is the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/127230517"}