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2021-06-27

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Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

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The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\">peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.<blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote> Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up<blockquote>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</blockquote> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.<blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> Market opportunity<blockquote>市场机会</blockquote> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.<blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\">(Source: Wikipedia)<blockquote>（来源：维基百科）</blockquote> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.<blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.<blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\">(Source:Schroders)<blockquote>（来源：施罗德）</blockquote> Turning to growth projections.<blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.<blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\">(Source:McKinsey)<blockquote>（来源：麦肯锡）</blockquote> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.<blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote> Scale and manufacturing competence<blockquote>规模和制造能力</blockquote> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.<blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.<blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote> Winner here: Ford.<blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote> Differentiation and BaaS revenue model<blockquote>差异化与BaaS收入模式</blockquote> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.<blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.<blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.<blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.<blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.<blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.<blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\">(Source: Schroders)<blockquote>（来源：施罗德）</blockquote> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.<blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote> Sales growth and valuation<blockquote>销售增长和估值</blockquote> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.<blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.<blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!<blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.<blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\">(Source: Author)<blockquote>（来源：作者）</blockquote> NIO has larger risks...<blockquote>蔚来有更大的风险……</blockquote> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.<blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote> Final verdict<blockquote>最终判决</blockquote> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.<blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.<blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.<blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-27 08:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\">peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.<blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote> Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up<blockquote>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</blockquote> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.<blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> Market opportunity<blockquote>市场机会</blockquote> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.<blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\">(Source: Wikipedia)<blockquote>（来源：维基百科）</blockquote> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.<blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.<blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\">(Source:Schroders)<blockquote>（来源：施罗德）</blockquote> Turning to growth projections.<blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.<blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\">(Source:McKinsey)<blockquote>（来源：麦肯锡）</blockquote> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.<blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote> Scale and manufacturing competence<blockquote>规模和制造能力</blockquote> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.<blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.<blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote> Winner here: Ford.<blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote> Differentiation and BaaS revenue model<blockquote>差异化与BaaS收入模式</blockquote> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.<blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.<blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.<blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.<blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.<blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.<blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\">(Source: Schroders)<blockquote>（来源：施罗德）</blockquote> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.<blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote> Sales growth and valuation<blockquote>销售增长和估值</blockquote> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.<blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.<blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!<blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.<blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\">(Source: Author)<blockquote>（来源：作者）</blockquote> NIO has larger risks...<blockquote>蔚来有更大的风险……</blockquote> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.<blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote> Final verdict<blockquote>最终判决</blockquote> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.<blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.<blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.<blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1011,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/127036844"}