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2021-06-23

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The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第 1 部分：他们无法加息</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":121669753,"tweetId":"121669753","gmtCreate":1624462148972,"gmtModify":1634005747451,"author":{"id":3572864464954492,"idStr":"3572864464954492","authorId":3572864464954492,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[微笑]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121669753","repostId":1191722749,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第 1 部分：他们无法加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"3 Key Takeaways<blockquote>3个关键要点</blockquote> <ol> <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li> <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li> <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> Introduction<blockquote><ol><li>美国政府有超过28万亿美元的债务</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，因此对利率上升特别敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol>介绍</blockquote> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.<blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在 COVID-19 出现之前，这个问题就变得越来越棘手。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了 4 万亿美元以上的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期喘息之机，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;$4.5T loan at 0% interest&nbsp;in 15 months!<blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为膨胀的短期未偿债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的+90%的长期债务，出现了更多的缓解。这使得私人市场有更多空间购买新的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为 0%，这实际上给了财政部一个4.5T 美元贷款，0% 利息15个月后!</blockquote> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>虽然这听起来是一件大事，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经把美联储关进了一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第一部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第二部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减规模，甚至可能需要增加国债购买来维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote> $28 Trillion and Growing<blockquote>28万亿美元且不断增长</blockquote> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.<blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显的趋势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.<blockquote>超额支出必须用债务来支付。这种巨大的超支导致联邦政府借款激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28万亿美元。参见下图2。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!<blockquote>对于任何努力理解 1 吨美元大小的人来说，请看这张精彩的图片。现在，乘以28!</blockquote> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.<blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了减少支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这为美元创造了比其他情况下更多的需求。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，因此本分析将跳过这一点。</blockquote> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.<blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于 11 万亿美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都会返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图 3 所示，自 2010 年 1 月以来，在发行的 14.5 万亿美元债券中，私人市场 “只 ”吸收了 9 万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov 和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</blockquote> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!<blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加明显。财政部发行了4.5万亿美元，其中美联储承担了2.6万亿美元（注：美联储资产负债表扩张超过 4 万亿美元，但并非全部是国债).深入研究这些数据会发现，美联储对期限更长的国债有更大的兴趣。由于短期利率为 0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，并且仍然拥有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持较低的利息支付是至关重要的!</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments<blockquote>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</blockquote> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.<blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么去年的演习如此重要。再看看美国债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。非市场债务是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年到期，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从未偿还总额的25%增加到42%。非市场资产则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，其份额从 45% 缩减至 25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.<blockquote>重要的是要注意上面国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为较高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在 2015 年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占 1.4 万亿美元，但现在占 4.3 万亿美元。这意味着每加息0.25%，几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一次加息周期的影响。粉线显示了票据如何跟随美联储加息周期，最高接近 2.25%。</blockquote> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!<blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即为联邦支出增加 1000 亿美元，仅用于国库券到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1万亿美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高到4%的情况下，财政部将额外增加1600亿美元的国库券利率，高达2900亿美元的国库券利率!这还不包括在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的 0.5 万亿美元!</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.<blockquote>下图显示了近20年来利率下降如何保持债务支付相对稳定的更清晰的影响。该图显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（加权平均利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了利率上升增加债务负担的速度（$1500）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（3200亿美元），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.<blockquote>要考虑的最后一张图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响变得非常明显。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> Wrapping Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).<blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务形势或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并将硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有涉及更高的利率对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场的破坏性有多大。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）管理。</blockquote> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;relief&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!<blockquote>这些数学都不过分复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是意识到利率不能上升，还是只是在照镜子，假设加息至 2.25% 将类似于 2015 年，而 2015 年 “只是 ”被 COVID-19 打乱了轨道？重申一下，利率下降给财政部带来了宽慰来自更高的利息支付。下一次，随着债务负担的增加，他们甚至可能达不到2%的一半。不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。如果美联储现在还没想明白，即使在他们未能提高利率之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩减资产负债表了，而不会产生严重后果。这些数据将在第2部分进行审查。敬请期待!</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第 1 部分：他们无法加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates<blockquote>盒子里的美联储，第 1 部分：他们无法加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-23 21:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n3 Key Takeaways<blockquote>3个关键要点</blockquote> <ol> <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li> <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li> <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li> </ol> Introduction<blockquote><ol><li>美国政府有超过28万亿美元的债务</li><li>大部分债务都是短期的，因此对利率上升特别敏感</li><li>更高的利率将立即开始给联邦预算带来压力</li></ol>介绍</blockquote> The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.<blockquote>美国有超过28万亿美元的债务，并且还在以惊人的速度增长。甚至在 COVID-19 出现之前，这个问题就变得越来越棘手。具有讽刺意味的是，尽管去年增加了 4 万亿美元以上的债务，但疫情可能给了美国政府短期喘息之机，因为它为美联储将利率降至零开了绿灯。</blockquote> First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;$4.5T loan at 0% interest&nbsp;in 15 months!<blockquote>首先，这减轻了财政部的压力，因为它以较低的利率为膨胀的短期未偿债务进行了再融资。然而，随着美联储吸收了自去年3月以来发行的+90%的长期债务，出现了更多的缓解。这使得私人市场有更多空间购买新的短期国库券。因为美联储将利息收入返还给财政部，而且由于国库券的利率为 0%，这实际上给了财政部一个4.5T 美元贷款，0% 利息15个月后!</blockquote> While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.<blockquote>虽然这听起来是一件大事，但它伴随着重大风险，现在已经把美联储关进了一个盒子里。这将在两篇文章中详细解释。第一部分将解释为什么美联储不能再加息，第二部分将展示美联储如何无法缩减规模，甚至可能需要增加国债购买来维持对收益率曲线长端的控制。</blockquote> $28 Trillion and Growing<blockquote>28万亿美元且不断增长</blockquote> The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.<blockquote>美国政府不能停止花钱。现在的支出远远超过了税收收入。美国经济继续经历名义增长，这增加了联邦税收收入，但联邦支出增长速度要快得多。下图1显示了这一明显的趋势。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.<blockquote>超额支出必须用债务来支付。这种巨大的超支导致联邦政府借款激增，导致未偿债务总额超过28万亿美元。参见下图2。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!<blockquote>对于任何努力理解 1 吨美元大小的人来说，请看这张精彩的图片。现在，乘以28!</blockquote> For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.<blockquote>对于大多数政府来说，这将是不可持续的，因为利率将会上升。这给借款人带来了减少支出的压力。美国政府受益于大多数政府所不具备的三大优势。首先，它拥有发行全球储备货币的过高特权（目前），这为美元创造了比其他情况下更多的需求。石油美元应该有自己的专门文章，因此本分析将跳过这一点。</blockquote> It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.<blockquote>重要的是要强调另外两个关键事实，这两个事实使得支出和借贷有增无减。它已经能够从社会保障信托基金借款，美联储近年来吸收了很大一部分债务发行。这不仅相当于 11 万亿美元的无息贷款（因为所有利息支付都会返还给财政部），而且还阻止了私人市场吸收所有新的债务发行，从而保持较低的利率。如下图 3 所示，自 2010 年 1 月以来，在发行的 14.5 万亿美元债券中，私人市场 “只 ”吸收了 9 万亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov 和https://fred.stlouisfed.org/</blockquote> Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!<blockquote>自2020年1月以来，数字更加明显。财政部发行了4.5万亿美元，其中美联储承担了2.6万亿美元（注：美联储资产负债表扩张超过 4 万亿美元，但并非全部是国债).深入研究这些数据会发现，美联储对期限更长的国债有更大的兴趣。由于短期利率为 0%，财政部可以向私营部门出售国库券，并且仍然拥有无息贷款。因此，美联储吸收财政部发行的几乎所有（约90%）长期债务以保持较低的利息支付是至关重要的!</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments<blockquote>到目前为止，财政部一直避免支付更高的利息</blockquote> Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.<blockquote>缩小范围，下面的三张图表显示了为什么去年的演习如此重要。再看看美国债务负担，这次是按工具分类的。非市场债务是政府欠自己的债务，票据代表1-10年到期，票据少于1年，债券&gt;10年。下面的两张图表显示了债务的绝对增长以及债务构成的变化。自2008年以来，票据经历了最大的增长，从未偿还总额的25%增加到42%。非市场资产则相反，由于社会保障信托基金不再是借款来源，其份额从 45% 缩减至 25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.<blockquote>重要的是要注意上面国库券的增长。票据是财政部面临的最高风险，因为较高的利率将在几个月内影响票据，因此值得注意的是，在 2015 年上一次加息周期中，票据仅占 1.4 万亿美元，但现在占 4.3 万亿美元。这意味着每加息0.25%，几乎会立即增加100亿美元的联邦支出。下图清楚地显示了上一次加息周期的影响。粉线显示了票据如何跟随美联储加息周期，最高接近 2.25%。</blockquote> If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!<blockquote>如果美联储试图以类似的方式加息，它将立即为联邦支出增加 1000 亿美元，仅用于国库券到期利息。在美联储将资产负债表缩减至1万亿美元（不再有无息贷款）并将利率提高到4%的情况下，财政部将额外增加1600亿美元的国库券利率，高达2900亿美元的国库券利率!这还不包括在此期间增加的任何新债务，现在仅利息支付就包括每年额外的 0.5 万亿美元!</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.<blockquote>下图显示了近20年来利率下降如何保持债务支付相对稳定的更清晰的影响。该图显示了平均加权利率和年化每月利息支付。橙色线（加权平均利率）与上面看到的债务增长直接相反。在上一个利率紧缩周期中，图表显示了利率上升增加债务负担的速度（$1500）。美联储拥有的国库券很少（3200亿美元），因此这些利息支付不会返还给财政部。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.<blockquote>要考虑的最后一张图表。这些利息支付与国税局征收的税收相比如何？在这种背景下，2015年加息周期对债务支付的影响变得非常明显。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source – Treasurydirect.gov<blockquote>资料来源 – Treasurydirect.gov</blockquote> Wrapping Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).<blockquote>对于任何密切关注美国债务形势或关注金融市场的人来说，这篇文章中的任何内容都不应该感到惊讶。图表和图形试图显示趋势，并将硬数字放在大多数人已经知道的轶事背后。这篇文章甚至没有涉及更高的利率对房地产市场、公司债务市场和消费者债务市场的破坏性有多大。相反，它只关注财政部，而财政部恰好由美联储前主席（珍妮特·耶伦）管理。</blockquote> None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;relief&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!<blockquote>这些数学都不过分复杂，所有数据都可以在财政部和美联储网站上免费获得。这就引出了一个问题，美联储是意识到利率不能上升，还是只是在照镜子，假设加息至 2.25% 将类似于 2015 年，而 2015 年 “只是 ”被 COVID-19 打乱了轨道？重申一下，利率下降给财政部带来了宽慰来自更高的利息支付。下一次，随着债务负担的增加，他们甚至可能达不到2%的一半。不幸的是，对于美联储来说，他们的盒子比大多数人意识到的要紧。如果美联储现在还没想明白，即使在他们未能提高利率之前，他们也无法缩减量化宽松（债务货币化），更不用说缩减资产负债表了，而不会产生严重后果。这些数据将在第2部分进行审查。敬请期待!</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/121669753"}