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2021-06-08

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Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>

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Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;Sentiment Trader&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.<blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们讨论了上升的风险调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为情绪交易者最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.<blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote> Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;“crash”&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.<blockquote>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个“崩溃”要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.<blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote> Suppressed Volatility<blockquote>波动性抑制</blockquote> As I stated, during a&nbsp;“bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;That“complacency”&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on”&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”<blockquote>正如我所说，在一个“看涨上涨”投资者变得无比自满。那个“自满”导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据“冒险”资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到“模因股票。”</blockquote> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;Armor ETF’s.<blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特装甲ETF。</blockquote> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.<blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"><blockquote></blockquote> “The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern. That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections. &nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt As they say,&nbsp;“timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.<blockquote>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特正如他们所说，“时机就是一切。”虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote> Market Exuberance Stretched Again<blockquote>市场繁荣再次延长</blockquote> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.<blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;on record.<blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最“看跌”有记录。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"><blockquote></blockquote> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;@Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.<blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标@不是吉姆·克莱默也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"><blockquote></blockquote> Inflationary Warning<blockquote>通货膨胀警告</blockquote> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.<blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote> “The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th. Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data. That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again. As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.” &nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.<blockquote>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"><blockquote></blockquote> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.<blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote> The Problem With Technicals<blockquote>技术人员的问题</blockquote> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;newsletter:<blockquote>我想重申最近的一点通讯：</blockquote> The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market. &nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it. Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal. If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.<blockquote>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote> Such is the problem with“buy and hold”&nbsp;strategies.&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;“sell high,”&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;“buy low”&nbsp;in the future.<blockquote>这就是问题“买入并持有”策略。是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有“高抛，”没有可用的现金“低价买入”在未来。</blockquote> With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”<blockquote>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或“熊市。”</blockquote> You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.<blockquote>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</blockquote> “Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead. Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.” Just A Warning<blockquote>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”只是一个警告</blockquote> Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;“sell signals”&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:<blockquote>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。我的意思是当卖出信号给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run<blockquote><ul><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：投资规则：让赢家跑</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short<blockquote><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。投资规则：做空输家</li></blockquote></li> <li>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low<blockquote><li>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。投资规则：低买入</li></blockquote></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;“risk management.”&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.<blockquote>如前所述，风险极小风险管理。从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote> While I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.<blockquote>虽然我同意你不能“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning Signs A Correction Is Ahead<blockquote>调整即将到来的警告信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-08 22:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.<blockquote>在从近期低点大幅反弹后，有多个警告信号表明调整即将到来。</blockquote> Over the last few weeks, we&nbsp;discussed the rising risk&nbsp;of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As&nbsp;Sentiment Trader&nbsp;recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.<blockquote>在过去的几周里，我们讨论了上升的风险调整幅度在 5-10% 之间，很可能是在今年夏天。从历史上看，在持续牛市的任何一年，这种回撤都非常常见。作为情绪交易者最近注意到，我们现在正处于一个较长的时期，没有这种情况发生。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eced82eef65e87252e40ed177a747be9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Of course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.<blockquote>当然，一如既往，在看涨的情况下，随着价格上涨，人们很容易变得自满。</blockquote> Before we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction.&nbsp;As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a&nbsp;“crash”&nbsp;is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.<blockquote>在我们进一步讨论之前，有必要澄清我们只讨论短期调整的可能性。正如经常发生的情况一样，有些人倾向于推断这意味着我在说一个“崩溃”要来了，你应该都是现金。在没有大量证据的情况下，这种极端举动是不明智的。</blockquote> However, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.<blockquote>然而，短期内有理由保持谨慎。</blockquote> Suppressed Volatility<blockquote>波动性抑制</blockquote> As I stated, during a&nbsp;“bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent.&nbsp;That“complacency”&nbsp;leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on”&nbsp;asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”<blockquote>正如我所说，在一个“看涨上涨”投资者变得无比自满。那个“自满”导致过度投机冒险。我们在各种情况下看到这种活动明显证据“冒险”资产类别从加密货币到特殊目的收购公司，再到“模因股票。”</blockquote> A measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of&nbsp;Armor ETF’s.<blockquote>投机过度的衡量标准是波动性指数（VIX）。下图来自我的同事吉姆·科尔奎特装甲ETF。</blockquote> The top pane is the&nbsp;15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&amp;P 500 index.<blockquote>顶部窗格是 VIX 的 15 天移动平均线，该平均线呈倒排比例。底部窗格是标普500指数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245e68edb15dbfa4f8f146a789b89809\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"712\"><blockquote></blockquote> “The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern. That pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections. &nbsp;By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st&nbsp;– August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt As they say,&nbsp;“timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.<blockquote>“未来几周，市场可能会出现最后一次上涨。这将使 VIX 指数进一步走低，并完成 VIX 楔形形态。这种模式在过去三次10%或更多的调整中已经很明显了。按照这个标准，调整应该在7月21日至8月10日左右开始。”吉姆·科尔奎特正如他们所说，“时机就是一切。”虽然 7 月至 8 月的时间框架完全有可能，但 6 月至 7 月的调整也同样有可能。正如我们稍后将要讨论的，重要的是要理解风险是普遍存在的。</blockquote> Market Exuberance Stretched Again<blockquote>市场繁荣再次延长</blockquote> It isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.<blockquote>预示着短期市场调整的不仅仅是自满情绪。还有许多其他的。</blockquote> As my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted,&nbsp;Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;on record.<blockquote>正如我的朋友丹尼尔·拉卡勒（Daniel Lacalle）最近发布的那样，摩根士丹利的市场时机指标处于通常与市场低迷同时出现的水平。仅供参考，目前的读数是最“看跌”有记录。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c918064930caffdab80b05f255085f9\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"459\"><blockquote></blockquote> Furthermore, a host of other indicators posted by&nbsp;@Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.<blockquote>此外，公布的许多其他指标@不是吉姆·克莱默也表明有理由担心修正。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12bad2caf91007cd9b37c0ef04e90e29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"547\"><blockquote></blockquote> Inflationary Warning<blockquote>通货膨胀警告</blockquote> Lastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.<blockquote>最后，汤姆·鲍利的这张纸条在周六引起了我的注意。</blockquote> “The S&amp;P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th. Unfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data. That May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again. As the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.” &nbsp;–&nbsp;Tom Bowley, Stockcharts The chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.)&nbsp;It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers.&nbsp;Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.<blockquote>“标普500周五触及4233.45的高点，以微弱优势超过了5月7日4232.60的历史收盘高点。对多头来说不幸的是，最后几分钟的抛售破坏了突破的尝试。这种虚假的突破虽然非常轻微，但对下周来说可能是相当不祥的，其中有一个主要原因。通货膨胀数据。5 月 7 日的历史新高就在 5 月 12 日令人震惊的 4 月份 CPI 数据公布的前几天。现在我们又回到了高潮。正如已故的瑜伽士贝拉所说：“又是似曾相识!”我不认为通货膨胀是个问题，但通货膨胀的可能性就可能引发可怕的头条新闻，并鼓励未来一周的抛售。”– 汤姆·鲍利，股票图表下图显示了生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的年变化率之间的差异。当PPI远远领先于CPI时，股市往往会遇到问题，这并不奇怪。这是因为这表明制片人无法将通货膨胀转嫁给他们的客户。因此，这导致收益减少和风险资产重新定价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf24f2c1d3200f6fdb7a14a83d419b5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"519\"><blockquote></blockquote> Tom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.<blockquote>汤姆继续正确地指出，从长远来看，通货膨胀不会是一个问题。然而，在短期内，通胀飙升将给前景带来压力，从而引发纠正措施。</blockquote> The Problem With Technicals<blockquote>技术人员的问题</blockquote> I want to reiterate a point from the most recent&nbsp;newsletter:<blockquote>我想重申最近的一点通讯：</blockquote> The biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market. &nbsp;As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it. Therefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal. If we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.<blockquote>最大的问题是技术指标无法区分盘整、回调或彻底的熊市。因此，如果你忽略了这些信号，当你意识到这是一次深度修正时，就为时已晚了。因此，我们必须以同样的尊重对待每个信号，并相应地调整风险。这样做的机会成本很小。如果我们降低风险，而市场继续上涨，我们可以增加风险敞口。是的，我们牺牲了一些短期业绩。然而，如果我们降低风险，市场大幅下跌，我们不仅可以在下跌期间保护资本，还可以在较低的价格水平部署流动性。</blockquote> Such is the problem with“buy and hold”&nbsp;strategies.&nbsp;Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t&nbsp;“sell high,”&nbsp;there is no cash available with which to&nbsp;“buy low”&nbsp;in the future.<blockquote>这就是问题“买入并持有”策略。是的，你的表现会与市场保持一致，但鉴于你没有“高抛，”没有可用的现金“低价买入”在未来。</blockquote> With that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term.&nbsp;However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”<blockquote>综上所述，这就是技术分析最重要的问题。上述所有警告都表明短期内存在调整的风险。然而，技术分析并不区分 5% 的回调、10% 的修正或“熊市。”</blockquote> You will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.<blockquote>一旦开始，你才会发现这一点，这就是为什么风险管理是必不可少的。</blockquote> “Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead. Yes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.” Just A Warning<blockquote>“风险管理就像驾驶汽车。如果前方有一个盲点，而你不踩刹车来控制速度，你就不可能避免前方的危险。是的，踩刹车来更好地控制汽车会减慢你到达目的地的时间。不过，迟到总比没到要好得多。”只是一个警告</blockquote> Again, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash.&nbsp;What I am suggesting is that when&nbsp;“sell signals”&nbsp;are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:<blockquote>再次强调，我并不是暗示、暗示或声明此类信号意味着 100% 兑现。我的意思是当卖出信号给定，这是个人应该执行一些基本的投资组合风险管理的时间，例如：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Trim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run<blockquote><ul><li>将获胜头寸削减至原始投资组合权重：投资规则：让赢家跑</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short<blockquote><li>卖出根本不起作用的头寸（如果头寸在上涨市场不起作用，那么在下跌市场很可能也不起作用）。投资规则：做空输家</li></blockquote></li> <li>Hold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low<blockquote><li>持有从这些活动中筹集的现金，直到下一个购买机会出现。投资规则：低买入</li></blockquote></li> </ul> As stated, there is minimal risk in&nbsp;“risk management.”&nbsp;In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.<blockquote>如前所述，风险极小风险管理。从长远来看，避免严重资本损失的结果将超过错失的短期收益。</blockquote> While I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.<blockquote>虽然我同意你不能“把握市场时机”，您就可以 “管理风险 ”以改善长期业绩。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warning-signs-correction-ahead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108456666","content_text":"After a decent rally from the recent lows, there are multiple warning signs a correction approaches.\nOver the last few weeks, we discussed the rising risk of a correction between 5-10%, most likely this summer. Such drawdowns are historically very common within any given year of an ongoing bull market. As Sentiment Trader recently noted, we are now in one of the more extended periods without such an occurrence.\nOf course, as is always the case, amid a bullish advance, it is easy to become complacent as prices rise.\nBefore we go any further, it is essential to clarify we are discussing only the potential for a short-term correction. As is often the case, some tend to extrapolate such to mean I am saying a “crash” is coming, and you should be all in cash. Such an extreme move is ill-advised without a significant weight of evidence.\nHowever, there is reason to be cautious in the near term.\nSuppressed Volatility\nAs I stated, during a “bullish advance,”investors become incredibly complacent. That“complacency” leads to excessive speculative risk-taking.We see clear evidence of that activity in various“risk-on” asset classes from Cryptocurrencies, to SPAC’s, to“Meme Stocks.”\nA measure of speculative excess is the Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below is from my colleague Jim Colquitt of Armor ETF’s.\nThe top pane is the 15-day moving average of VIX, which is on an inverted scale. The bottom pane is the S&P 500 index.\n\n\n“The market may have one last push higher over the next several weeks. Such will take the VIX even lower and complete the VIX wedge pattern.\nThat pattern has been evident in the last three 10% or greater corrections.\n By this measure, the correction should begin somewhere around July 21st – August 10th.” – Jim Colquitt\n\nAs they say, “timing is everything.”While a July-August time frame is entirely possible, a June-July correction is just as likely. What is essential, as we will discuss momentarily, is understanding that risk is prevalent.\nMarket Exuberance Stretched Again\nIt isn’t just complacency that is suggestive of a short-term market correction. There are numerous others as well.\nAs my friend Daniel Lacalle recently posted, Morgan Stanley‘s market timing indicator is at levels that have typically coincided with market downturns. Just for reference, the current reading is the most “bearish” on record.\n\nFurthermore, a host of other indicators posted by @Not_Jim_Crameralso suggests there are reasons for concern about a correction.\n\nInflationary Warning\nLastly, this note from Tom Bowley caught my eye on Saturday.\n\n“The S&P 500 reached a high on Friday of 4233.45, narrowly eclipsing the all-time high close of 4232.60 from May 7th.\nUnfortunately for the bulls, selling in the final few minutes ruined the breakout attempt. This false breakout, ever so slight, could be quite ominous for next week and there’s one MAJOR reason why. Inflation data.\nThat May 7th all-time high came just days before the shocking April CPI data was released on May 12th. Now here we are back at the high again.\nAs the late Yogi Berra might say, “it’s deja vu all over again!” I don’t believe inflation to be a problem, but just the possibility of it could trigger scary headlines and encourage selling in the week ahead.”\n – Tom Bowley, Stockcharts\n\nThe chart below shows the differential between the annual rates of change of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI.) It should not be surprising that when PPI surges well ahead of CPI, equity markets tend to run into problems.Such is because this shows producers are unable to pass the inflation along to their customers. Consequently, this leads to reduced earnings and a repricing of risk assets.\n\nTom goes on to state inflation will not be a problem longer-term correctly. However, in the near term, the surge in inflation will weigh on outlooks, creating corrective actions.\nThe Problem With Technicals\nI want to reiterate a point from the most recent newsletter:\n\nThe biggest problem is that technical indicators do not distinguish between a consolidation, a correction, or an outright bear market.\n As such, if you ignore the signals as they occur, by the time you realize it’s a deep correction, it is too late to do much about it.\nTherefore, we must treat each signal with the same respect and adjust risk accordingly. The opportunity costs of doing so are minimal.\n\nIf we reduce risk and the market continues to rise, we can increase risk exposures. Yes, we sacrifice some short-term performance. However, if we reduce risk and the market declines sharply, we not only protect capital during the decline but have the liquidity to deploy at lower price levels.\nSuch is the problem with“buy and hold” strategies. Yes, you will perform in line with the market, but given that you didn’t “sell high,” there is no cash available with which to “buy low” in the future.\nWith that stated, here is the most significant problem of technical analysis.All of the warnings noted above suggest there is a risk of a correction in the near term. However, technical analysis does not differentiate between a 5% pullback, a 10% correction, or a“bear market.”\nYou will only find that out once it begins, and such is why risk management is essential.\n\n“Risk management is much like driving a car. If there is a blind spot ahead, and you don’t tap on the brakes to control your speed, you are unlikely to avoid the hazard ahead.\nYes, tapping on the brakes to provide more control over the car will slow your arrival time to your destination. However, being late is a much better option than not getting there at all.”\n\nJust A Warning\nAgain, I am not implying, suggesting, or stating that such signals mean going 100% to cash. What I am suggesting is that when “sell signals” are given, that is the time when individuals should perform some essential portfolio risk management such as:\n\nTrim back winning positions to original portfolio weights:Investment Rule: Let Winners Run\nSell positions that simply are not working (if the position was not working in a rising market, it likely won’t in a declining market.)Investment Rule: Cut Losers Short\nHold the cash raised from these activities until the next buying opportunity occurs.Investment Rule: Buy Low\n\nAs stated, there is minimal risk in “risk management.” In the long term, the results of avoiding periods of severe capital loss will outweigh missed short-term gains.\nWhile I agree you can not“time the markets,”you can “manage risk” to improve your long-term outcomes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/117776942"}