Food for thought_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-06-08

Food for thought

Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者正在对美国股票失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":117662932,"tweetId":"117662932","gmtCreate":1623138920626,"gmtModify":1631893766847,"author":{"id":3567466731322784,"idStr":"3567466731322784","authorId":3567466731322784,"authorIdStr":"3567466731322784","name":"娜神宝宝","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Food for thought&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Food for thought&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Food for thought","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117662932","repostId":1168188820,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168188820","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623138527,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168188820?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者正在对美国股票失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168188820","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable.\n\nFor some ","content":" The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable. For some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.<blockquote>从世界各地涌入美国市场的资金激增是不可持续的。几个月来，与世界其他地区相比，美国看起来很特别。更好的新冠肺炎疫苗推广。更大的财政政策推动。更大胆的重新开放。经济和市场指标也显示了这一点。消费飙升至远高于大流行前的水平，美国收益率因预期正常化而走高。投资者对美国股市下了巨大赌注，外国投资者在2020年和2021年以前所未有的速度积累美国股市。</blockquote> But cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.<blockquote>但美国例外论的叙事正在形成裂缝，资金流动面临着戏剧性逆转的风险。</blockquote> It is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.<blockquote>众所周知，美国经济复苏迅速，争论甚至从强劲增长转向过热风险。但或许鲜为人知的是，押注美国经济强劲复苏的资金数额之大令人难以置信。</blockquote> Exceptionalism in money flow<blockquote>资金流动中的例外论</blockquote> The chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了基于国际收支数据的2000年以来流入美国的外国净资产。几个季度以来，美国吸引了历史上最大的股票流入，2020年外国净流入超过4000亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f6abf41a80e588613658d84ac1eaa3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"718\">The next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了分为流入（负债）和流出（资产）的国际收支数据。它强调，资金流入是大量净数字的驱动力，并且在2020年加速流入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0463f3dc176b8202dfd4ad7e06e93111\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"672\">The foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were &gt;$250bn (&gt;$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.<blockquote>仅在2020年第四季度，外国流入就超过2500亿美元（年化超过1万亿美元），占该地区GDP的5%。即使在1999-2001年的互联网泡沫期间，我们也没有看到许多季度超过GDP的2%。</blockquote> U.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).<blockquote>下一张图表也说明了美国的例外论，它显示了美国在全球跨境股权流动总额中的 “市场份额”。美国确实是个例外，它几乎占据了全球近期所有的总流量（有些流向特定国家的总流量可能是负数）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6992f35f36732c19fa646d842483e53\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"827\">Exceptionalism is now in question<blockquote>例外论现在受到质疑</blockquote> Enough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:<blockquote>过去的事已经说够了。投资者现在处于什么位置，我们将走向何方？许多证据表明，投资者正在质疑例外论叙事，并改变资金流向：</blockquote> First, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.<blockquote>首先，最新的官方月度数据（3 月份 TIC 数据）显示，外国对美股的兴趣可能会以一种重要的方式减弱。2020年的强劲势头一直持续到2021年1月和2月。但三月份出现了重大逆转。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc43d90772a6546441d2f422afbe8887\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"573\">Second, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.<blockquote>其次，在某种程度上，这是合乎逻辑的，因为世界其他国家在疫苗方面正在赶上美国。下图显示，欧盟在5月份开始接种疫苗的人数（人均）超过了美国。最近中国也超过了美国（和欧盟）。这意味着其他国家在豁免方面正在迅速迎头赶上，此后不久经济将重新开放。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf91e8b1846be8ba1f2c3df15589c716\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"902\">Third, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.<blockquote>第三，2021年第一季度飙升的美国债券收益率不再引领全球利率走高。下图显示了美国10年期国债RYTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%收益率在第一季度上涨了0.8个百分点（灰色条），远高于欧洲收益率。但在2021年第二季度（蓝条），排名完全不同。欧洲的收益率涨幅最大，而美国的收益率则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8cb07b7c832cf87fdf3ff2b1cd2176\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"756\">Fourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.<blockquote>第四，相对股票市场表现开始反转。在美国股市长期结构性表现优异之后，美国的领导地位受到质疑。相对于 EurostoxxSXXE，0.15%（流动性最强的欧洲股票指数），标准普尔 500SPX，-0.08% 自 2020 年 10 月以来表现不佳。考虑到估值差异，尤其是如果科技股拖累美国市场的话，这种情况很可能还会持续下去。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d9bad697ba7ff1b24909132362c72\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"752\">We can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.<blockquote>我们已经可以观察到美国股市表现（不稳定）和潜在经济表现（仍然强劲）之间的某种分歧。资金流动使这幅画面更容易理解：流入美国股市的资金变得如此广泛，以至于一些均值回归是不可避免的。</blockquote> Less demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.<blockquote>对美国股票产品的需求减少会对美国股票的相对表现产生影响，也可能通过国际收支融资的整体结构影响美元。这是经常账户赤字不断增加的背景下的一个问题。</blockquote> The U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.<blockquote>美国拥有特殊的财政状况和特殊的经常账户状况。如果通过股票融资变得不那么特别，就必须有其他东西。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者正在对美国股票失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal investors are losing interest in U.S. stocks and that will be a game changer<blockquote>全球投资者正在对美国股票失去兴趣，这将改变游戏规则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-08 15:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable. For some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.<blockquote>从世界各地涌入美国市场的资金激增是不可持续的。几个月来，与世界其他地区相比，美国看起来很特别。更好的新冠肺炎疫苗推广。更大的财政政策推动。更大胆的重新开放。经济和市场指标也显示了这一点。消费飙升至远高于大流行前的水平，美国收益率因预期正常化而走高。投资者对美国股市下了巨大赌注，外国投资者在2020年和2021年以前所未有的速度积累美国股市。</blockquote> But cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.<blockquote>但美国例外论的叙事正在形成裂缝，资金流动面临着戏剧性逆转的风险。</blockquote> It is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.<blockquote>众所周知，美国经济复苏迅速，争论甚至从强劲增长转向过热风险。但或许鲜为人知的是，押注美国经济强劲复苏的资金数额之大令人难以置信。</blockquote> Exceptionalism in money flow<blockquote>资金流动中的例外论</blockquote> The chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了基于国际收支数据的2000年以来流入美国的外国净资产。几个季度以来，美国吸引了历史上最大的股票流入，2020年外国净流入超过4000亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f6abf41a80e588613658d84ac1eaa3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"718\">The next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.<blockquote>下图显示了分为流入（负债）和流出（资产）的国际收支数据。它强调，资金流入是大量净数字的驱动力，并且在2020年加速流入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0463f3dc176b8202dfd4ad7e06e93111\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"672\">The foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were &gt;$250bn (&gt;$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.<blockquote>仅在2020年第四季度，外国流入就超过2500亿美元（年化超过1万亿美元），占该地区GDP的5%。即使在1999-2001年的互联网泡沫期间，我们也没有看到许多季度超过GDP的2%。</blockquote> U.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).<blockquote>下一张图表也说明了美国的例外论，它显示了美国在全球跨境股权流动总额中的 “市场份额”。美国确实是个例外，它几乎占据了全球近期所有的总流量（有些流向特定国家的总流量可能是负数）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6992f35f36732c19fa646d842483e53\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"827\">Exceptionalism is now in question<blockquote>例外论现在受到质疑</blockquote> Enough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:<blockquote>过去的事已经说够了。投资者现在处于什么位置，我们将走向何方？许多证据表明，投资者正在质疑例外论叙事，并改变资金流向：</blockquote> First, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.<blockquote>首先，最新的官方月度数据（3 月份 TIC 数据）显示，外国对美股的兴趣可能会以一种重要的方式减弱。2020年的强劲势头一直持续到2021年1月和2月。但三月份出现了重大逆转。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc43d90772a6546441d2f422afbe8887\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"573\">Second, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.<blockquote>其次，在某种程度上，这是合乎逻辑的，因为世界其他国家在疫苗方面正在赶上美国。下图显示，欧盟在5月份开始接种疫苗的人数（人均）超过了美国。最近中国也超过了美国（和欧盟）。这意味着其他国家在豁免方面正在迅速迎头赶上，此后不久经济将重新开放。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf91e8b1846be8ba1f2c3df15589c716\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"902\">Third, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.<blockquote>第三，2021年第一季度飙升的美国债券收益率不再引领全球利率走高。下图显示了美国10年期国债RYTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%收益率在第一季度上涨了0.8个百分点（灰色条），远高于欧洲收益率。但在2021年第二季度（蓝条），排名完全不同。欧洲的收益率涨幅最大，而美国的收益率则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8cb07b7c832cf87fdf3ff2b1cd2176\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"756\">Fourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.<blockquote>第四，相对股票市场表现开始反转。在美国股市长期结构性表现优异之后，美国的领导地位受到质疑。相对于 EurostoxxSXXE，0.15%（流动性最强的欧洲股票指数），标准普尔 500SPX，-0.08% 自 2020 年 10 月以来表现不佳。考虑到估值差异，尤其是如果科技股拖累美国市场的话，这种情况很可能还会持续下去。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d9bad697ba7ff1b24909132362c72\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"752\">We can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.<blockquote>我们已经可以观察到美国股市表现（不稳定）和潜在经济表现（仍然强劲）之间的某种分歧。资金流动使这幅画面更容易理解：流入美国股市的资金变得如此广泛，以至于一些均值回归是不可避免的。</blockquote> Less demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.<blockquote>对美国股票产品的需求减少会对美国股票的相对表现产生影响，也可能通过国际收支融资的整体结构影响美元。这是经常账户赤字不断增加的背景下的一个问题。</blockquote> The U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.<blockquote>美国拥有特殊的财政状况和特殊的经常账户状况。如果通过股票融资变得不那么特别，就必须有其他东西。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-investors-enthusiasm-for-u-s-stocks-is-fading-and-that-will-be-a-game-changer-11623049201?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-investors-enthusiasm-for-u-s-stocks-is-fading-and-that-will-be-a-game-changer-11623049201?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168188820","content_text":"The surge of money flowing into the U.S. market from around the world is not sustainable.\n\nFor some months now, the U.S. has looked exceptional compared to the rest of the world. Better COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Bigger fiscal policy push. Bolder reopening. Economic and market indicators showed this too. Consumption spiked well-above pre-pandemic levels and U.S. yields moved higher in anticipation of normalization. Investors put a huge bet on U.S. equities, with foreign investors accumulating U.S. stocks at unprecedented speed in 2020 and into 2021.\nBut cracks are forming in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, and the money flow is at risk of a dramatic reversal.\nIt is well-known that the economic recovery in the U.S. has been swift, and the debate has even shifted from strong growth towards overheating risk. But what is perhaps less known is how incredibly large the amount of money betting on a strong U.S. economic recovery has been.\nExceptionalism in money flow\nThe chart below shows foreign net equity inflow into the U.S. since 2000 based on balance of payment data. For several quarters, the U.S. attracted historically large equity inflows, with net foreign inflows of more than $400 billion in 2020.\nThe next chart shows the balance of payments data broken down into inflows (liabilities) and outflows (assets). It highlights that the inflows were the driving force of the large net numbers and that they accelerated during 2020.\nThe foreign inflows in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone were >$250bn (>$1 trillion annualized) and in the region 5% of GDP. Even during the 1999-2001 dotcom bubble, we did not see many quarters above 2% of GDP.\nU.S. exceptionalism also is illustrated in this next chart, which shows U.S. “market share” in total global cross-border equity flows. The U.S. has indeed been exceptional, grabbing close to all of the world’s recent gross-flow (some flows to specific countries can be negative).\nExceptionalism is now in question\nEnough about the past. Where do investors stand now, and where are we heading? Many pieces of evidence show that investors are questioning the exceptionalism narrative and changing the direction of money flow:\nFirst, the latest official monthly data (the March TIC data) shows that foreign appetite for U.S. stocks is potentially waning in an important way. The strong momentum from 2020 continued into January and February 2021. But there was a big reversal in March.\nSecond, in a way this is all logical, since the rest of the world is catching up with the U.S. on the vaccine front. The chart below shows that the EU began to vaccinate more people (per capita) than the U.S. in May. Recently China has also surpassed the U.S. (and the EU). This means that other countries are quickly catching up in terms of immunity and economic reopening will follow shortly thereafter.\nThird, U.S. bond yields, which spiked in the first quarter of 2021, are no longer leading the global move higher in interest rates. The chart below shows how U.S.10-year TreasuryTMUBMUSD10Y,1.561%yield rose by 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter (gray bars), much more than European yields. But in the second quarter of 2021 (blue bars) the ranking is totally different. Yields in Europe are rising the most, while U.S. yields are declining.\nFourth, relative equity market performance is starting to flip. After a long period of structural U.S. equity market outperformance, U.S. leadership is in question. Relative to EurostoxxSXXE,0.15%(the index of the most liquid European stocks), the S&P 500SPX,-0.08%has underperformed since October 2020. This could well have further to run, given valuation differences — and especially if technology stocks are a drag on the U.S. market.\nWe can already observe a form of divergence between U.S. equity performance (erratic) and the underlying economic performance (still strong). The money flows make that picture more understandable: money flows into the U.S. equity market got so extended that some mean-reversion was inevitable.\nLess demand for U.S. equity products has implications for relative U.S. equity performance, and may also impact the U.S. dollar via the overall structure of balance of payment financing. This is a problem in the context of awidening current account deficit.\nThe U.S. has an exceptional fiscal stance and an exceptional current account position. If financing via equities is becoming less exceptional, something else will have to give.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/117662932"}