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2021-06-04

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Is Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":116789845,"tweetId":"116789845","gmtCreate":1622819196087,"gmtModify":1634097665718,"author":{"id":3573377599916480,"idStr":"3573377599916480","authorId":3573377599916480,"authorIdStr":"3573377599916480","name":"JonathanNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a7d96a35b13314f561a621464eca4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>for real?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>for real?</body></html>","text":"for real?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116789845","repostId":1153560369,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153560369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622817697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153560369?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153560369","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sale","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.</li> <li>Europe is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.</li> <li>Two of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.</li> <li>We believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b427058aa1c9aea96553593b7ed1e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"510\">Photo by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车（「EV」）近年来成为焦点，二零二零年的销量同比强劲增长43%。</li><li>到 2025 年，欧洲预计将拥有 300 多款电动汽车车型，而到 2026 年，美国预计将拥有 130 多款电动汽车车型。</li><li>两家新兴的电动汽车初创公司包括 Lucid Motors 和 Fisker，这两家公司都位于加利福尼亚州，预计分别于 2021 年底和 2022 年底开始生产和交付。</li><li>我们认为两家公司目前都被低估，上涨潜力超过 150%。</li></ul>照片由domin_domin/E+提供，盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year&nbsp;while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车（「EV」）成为人们关注的焦点，尽管全球汽车销量因新冠疫情相关影响而下滑，但二零二零年的销量仍呈现强劲增长。2020年，全球电动汽车销量没有受到断断续续的封锁和对经济不确定性的挥之不去的警惕的影响，而是继续保持增长势头，同比增长43%，而整体汽车销量下降20%。由于技术进步，消费者对电动汽车的负担能力和实用性不断提高，加上政府通过补贴和气候变化政策进行干预，预计将在十年内进一步推高电动汽车的销售数据；到2030年，电动汽车销量预计将超过3110万辆，占全球新车销量的32%。</blockquote> The next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts&nbsp;more than 300 available EV models&nbsp;within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than&nbsp;130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.<blockquote>未来十年将是电气化时代，随着电动汽车占据中心舞台，该行业将面临巨大机遇。欧洲运输与环境联合会预测，到 2025 年，欧洲汽车市场将有 300 多款电动汽车车型可用，而 IHS Markit 预测，到 2026 年，美国将有 130 多款电动汽车车型可用。</blockquote> Two of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.<blockquote>打入美国和欧洲电动汽车市场的两个新兴品牌包括 Lucid Motors（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）或 “Lucid”）和 Fisker（纽约证券交易所股票代码：FSR）。这两家总部位于加利福尼亚州的公司已经推出了各自的旗舰车型，现已开放预订；Lucid 预计将于 2021 年底首次交付，Fisker 预计将于 2022 年底首次交付。除了令人惊叹的车辆之外，这两只股票还在最新的科技股反弹中大放异彩，自各自发布 IPO 和 IPO 前公告以来，Fisker 的股价分别达到 187% 和 Lucid 的股价达到 480% 的峰值。</blockquote> Fisker Inc.<blockquote>菲斯克公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d67f9efb3fba9a363fca7f11f130a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\">Source:fiskerinc.com<blockquote>资料来源：fiskerinc.com</blockquote> Launched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.<blockquote>这家总部位于南加州的电动汽车制造商于 2016 年推出，其品牌宗旨是通过打造 “世界上最具情感和可持续的汽车 ”，为所有人提供 “清洁未来 ”。该公司目前由联合创始人 Henrik Fisker 和 Geeta Gupta-Fisker 博士领导，以及一支在各自行业拥有多年行业经验的强大执行团队。亨里克·菲斯克最出名的是他在豪华汽车领域为宝马和阿斯顿·马丁等知名品牌进行的颠覆性设计。在创办菲斯克公司之前，亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）与人共同创办了 “菲斯克汽车 ”公司，该公司因生产世界上第一辆豪华混合动力超级跑车菲斯克-卡玛（Fisker Karma）而闻名，但在 2012 年因破产而倒闭。这位汽车设计师这次带着过去的经验教训和创新的商业模式--“资产精益 ”方法--重返赛场，为快速变化的行业注入了新的活力。</blockquote> The “Asset-Lean Approach”<blockquote>“资产精益方法”</blockquote> Fisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to&nbsp;29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.<blockquote>Fisker 的资产精益方法需要将差异化视为非必要的业务组成部分外包，包括平台工程、生产和组装、充电网络和其他车队管理服务。该商业模式不仅将使该公司从概念到交付的 60 个月的典型时间表大幅缩短至 29 个月，而且还可以将更多资金部署到对客户体验至关重要的领域，包括设计、软件、用户界面和高级驾驶员辅助系统 (“ADAS”)。通过这种商业模式实现的降低成本也将使菲斯克能够在不影响质量的情况下将车辆价格保持在可承受的范围内。</blockquote> Fisker’s flagship model will be the&nbsp;Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a&nbsp;Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range&nbsp;sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.<blockquote>Fisker 的旗舰车型将是 Fisker Ocean SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月 17 日开始生产，明年年底前将在欧洲和美国进行首批交付。作为品牌精益资产使命的一部分，菲斯克与麦格纳斯太尔（“麦格纳”）建立了合作伙伴关系，共同设计和生产菲斯克海洋。两家公司目前正在合作打造一个独特的 “FM29 ”平台，该平台将作为其旗舰 SUV 以及至少一款其他菲斯克车型的基础。通过利用麦格纳现有的技术和已建立的制造设施，这家电动汽车制造商将能够加快将汽车推向市场的时间表，同时降低汽车开发成本。交叉兼容平台还将使 Fisker 能够与优质供应商实现供应的批量定价，从而进一步降低车辆制造成本，既提高客户的负担能力，又提高公司的利润率。Fisker Ocean 的入门价格为 37,499 美元，最高级的车型售价为 69,900 美元；结合高达350英里的行驶里程，这款全电动SUV在平均行驶里程约为250英里的同价位车型中脱颖而出。Fisker Ocean 的目标是成为 “高端销量 ”车型，预计年产量将超过 10 万辆。</blockquote> A similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an&nbsp;agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.<blockquote>类似的方法也应用于他们的第二个模型PEAR的开发和生产。菲斯克已经与富士康达成协议——富士康以与苹果合作生产iPhone而闻名——为这款革命性车辆设计和生产一个全新的平台，价格低于3万美元。目前车型细节有限，但新车型预计将采用独特的设计和革命性的体验，使其有别于任何现有的电动汽车细分市场。PEAR 计划于 2023 年第四季度开始生产，初步全年产量预计将达到 25 万辆。该车将首先在美国推出，并进一步扩展到中国、欧洲和印度市场。</blockquote> Inherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model<blockquote>菲斯克商业模式的固有风险</blockquote> Significant Reliance on Production Partners<blockquote>严重依赖生产合作伙伴</blockquote> Fisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including&nbsp;BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).<blockquote>菲斯克的商业模式需要将部分工程和生产流程外包给第三方。公司严重依赖与第三方制造商和供应商的关系，这使他们在运营方面面临重大风险，如质量控制问题或产能限制导致的延误。麦格纳斯太尔目前为宝马、戴姆勒和捷豹路虎等知名汽车品牌生产产品。菲斯克的年产能约为 20 万辆，如果将菲斯克加入他们的生产线，麦格纳的每个合作伙伴平均将获得 5 万辆。考虑到菲斯克年产 10 万辆菲斯克海洋的看涨期权，麦格纳可能需要放弃其现有合作伙伴之一，降低其他客户的生产水平，或投资扩大其产能以实现业绩目标，从而给这家制造巨头带来高昂的机会成本。为了激励其生产合作伙伴使海洋计划取得成功，并降低因产能限制而造成的延误风险，菲斯克向麦格纳提供了该公司 6% 的股份，可通过实现 “相互关联的业绩条件 ”来行使（2020 年 10K 第 97 页）。</blockquote> The same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to&nbsp;pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.<blockquote>同样的风险也适用于菲斯克与富士康合作生产梨。富士康此前在车辆制造过程中没有经验，这使得菲斯克面临与质量控制和延误相关的潜在风险。富士康是众多现有制造业资深人士之一，他们最近开始利用不断增长的电动汽车行业的 OEM 机会。这家电子制造商计划改造其位于威斯康星州的闲置工厂，以实现其电动汽车生产雄心。菲斯克打算利用富士康的制造专业知识，而富士康则寻求利用生产菲斯克电动汽车的经验，为进入更大的电动汽车市场铺平道路，并计划从长远来看为其他使用相同平台的公司生产电动汽车。尽管富士康在电动汽车生产方面缺乏经验，但合作伙伴希望利用其 “最少的汽车遗产，在各个方面实现全面的零负担”，与可能受到现有合同负担限制的经验丰富的汽车制造商竞争。</blockquote> Exposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality<blockquote>暴露于产品质量不一致</blockquote> Working with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.<blockquote>与多个合作伙伴合作也可能使公司面临车辆质量不一致的问题，并最终影响消费者对品牌的信心。如果与一家合作伙伴联合生产的汽车不幸出现故障，可能会严重损害菲斯克的声誉和消费者对该品牌的信心。</blockquote> In addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.<blockquote>此外，鉴于菲斯克商业模式的协作性质，与其他品牌相比，菲斯克的制造商很少作为营销策略的一部分进行广播，消费者可能会开始对菲斯克各自汽车的生产合作伙伴产生兴趣。菲斯克商业模式的高度协作性质可能会导致消费者开始根据制造商的质量和声誉而不是品牌来权衡购买决策，这剥夺了菲斯克在汽车开发过程中的信誉。</blockquote> Overly Aggressive Targets<blockquote>过于激进的目标</blockquote> As mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of&nbsp;6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of&nbsp;close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.<blockquote>如上所述，Fisker 计划每年至少生产 100,000 台 Fisker Ocean，并在生产的第一个全年生产 250,000 台 PEAR。然而，这些高数字引起了人们对它们是否合理可实现的好奇。根据这些生产目标，到 2024 年，菲斯克将生产约 350,000 辆汽车。根据预计到 2024 年电动汽车销量将达到 620 万辆，这将代表 7% 的市场份额，对于一家仅运营两年、仅有两款车型可供销售的电动汽车初创公司来说，这相当可观。与全球公认的行业领导者特斯拉相比，假设的 7% 市场份额将是特斯拉 2020 年全球电动汽车销售市场份额近 4% 的两倍。即使菲斯克能够为客户提供价格优势，实现全球电动汽车销售 7% 的市场份额也将是一项挑战，特别是考虑到未来几年将推出大量竞争车型。根据我们对菲斯克及其运营合作伙伴的产能和预期电动汽车需求的考虑，我们认为这些销量预测更有可能在 2026 年实现。</blockquote> Financial Outlook<blockquote>财务展望</blockquote> Following Fisker’s IPO through a&nbsp;SPAC reverse merger&nbsp;sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.<blockquote>2020 年 10 月，Fisker 通过 Spartan Energy Acquisition 发起的 SPAC 反向合并进行首次公开募股，随后该公司获得了 10 亿美元的注资，根据 Fisker 的商业计划，这正好是开发和生产 Fisker Ocean SUV 所需的资金。距离 Fisker Ocean 开始生产仅剩 18 个月，该公司继续按照计划和预算内执行开发流程，第一季度末现金和现金等价物为 9.854 亿美元，同时保持无债务资产负债表。对于最新的 PEAR 模型，该公司预计要到 2023 年才会进行重大资本投资，除了从债务或股权发行中获得的外部融资外，他们计划通过 Fisker Ocean 销售运营产生的现金来部分资助。</blockquote> We are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.<blockquote>我们预计到 2023 年，收入将达到 12 亿至 14 亿美元，主要来自 Fisker Ocean SUV 在上市第一个整年后销售约 20,000 辆，以及少量 PEAR 车型，因为预计从 2023 年第四季度开始交付。我们的预测预测旗舰 SUV 的销量将会下降，这与欧洲和美国电动汽车市场最近推出的电动 SUV 持平。我们相信，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，Fisker 将在 2025 年底或 2026 年初实现 Fisker Ocean 100,000 辆的年产量目标。</blockquote> Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.<blockquote>考虑到 Fisker 将继续向美国和欧洲市场以外的中国和印度市场扩张，以及 2025 年前除了 Fisker Ocean 和 PEAR 车型外，还将推出另外两款车型，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以约 30% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，在销售额持续增长的推动下，公司到 2024 年将开始实现 1.57 亿至 2.85 亿美元的利润，根据菲斯克的商业计划，终身毛利率将在 19% 至 25% 之间。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>i.基本案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc16e7b0a00d872cb9a339ed0e5f5aec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>二、牛市案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a29e2cf2a5b538f356c802408f4a4b22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>iii. 熊市财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372ca6f8d253e742af8bce8fc078734c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\">Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度和中期报告以及我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985813dcd25b735d9596a849970216ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\">Author, with data from our internal valuation model<blockquote>作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型</blockquote> Based on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.<blockquote>根据上述对 Fisker 基本面和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 46 亿美元（基本情况）至 103 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 16.29 美元和 36.94 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 14.69 美元，这意味着上涨潜力约为 11% 至 151%。</blockquote> i. Base Case Valuation:<blockquote>一、基本案例估价：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0832647b2ae0a671bc2bf99d66f6df4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Valuation:<blockquote>二、牛市估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc71a141c6aba19be9f07bcfef67aac7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Valuation:<blockquote>三、熊案例估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b71936724a89c41dde8bb61620357e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\">Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度及中期报告以及我们的内部估值模型。</blockquote> Lucid Motors Inc.<blockquote>Lucid汽车公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8bb28783a9c0e183733805b450beae8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\">Source:lucidmotors.com<blockquote>资料来源：lucidmotors.com</blockquote> Founded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the&nbsp;first Formula-E battery pack&nbsp;capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the&nbsp;Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.<blockquote>Lucid Motors 成立于 2007 年，前身为 Atieva，是一家著名的电动汽车电池和动力系统制造商。2016年，在特斯拉前首席车辆工程师Peter Rawlinson的领导下，该公司正式更名为Lucid Motors。目前，Lucid 的首席执行官兼首席技术官 Peter Rawlinson 领导该公司开发了第一个电动方程式赛车电池组，能够为整个比赛的赛车提供动力。这项技术后来发展成为该汽车制造商于 2016 年底推出的旗舰豪华电动轿车 Lucid Air 中使用的电池组。</blockquote> The company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.<blockquote>该公司的成功建立在开发世界一流的高性能电动汽车的承诺之上。Lucid Air 的动力系统在充满电后可行驶 500 英里以上，创下了行业历史新高。除了世界一流的电池技术外，该公司还秉持着未来将由技术驱动的核心信念，这将使他们与传统汽车制造商为满足不断变化的消费者需求而生产的大量新型电动汽车车型区分开来。与 Fisker 的车辆类似，Lucid 也优先考虑车内的连接性，为车主提供无线更新。该公司的车辆还配备了先进的 ADAS 功能，如自动紧急制动、交叉交通警报和驾驶员监控系统；当测试完成并获得监管部门批准后，3 级自动驾驶功能预计也将通过无线更新推出。Lucid Air 也将是首批集成面部 ID 识别功能的电动汽车之一，该功能将与车内的预测分析技术集成，根据驾驶员的行为自动加载预设或随着时间的推移学习的配置文件和偏好。</blockquote> The brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.<blockquote>该品牌目前定位于 “后豪华 ”市场，Lucid 将其定义为追求奢华而不奢侈体验的市场。Lucid 并不害怕为其旗舰车型付出高价，该车型配备了一些最先进的技术以及优质的外观和内饰构成——Lucid Air 的价格从基本车型的 77,400 美元到顶级梦想版的 169,000 美元不等。</blockquote> A Highly Integrated Automaker<blockquote>高度一体化的汽车制造商</blockquote> In contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&amp;D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.<blockquote>与 Fisker 不同，Lucid 的业务建立在高度集成的模式之上。Lucid 对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、信息娱乐系统、暖通空调、集成安全、底盘和 ADAS 系统。该汽车制造商还将在其亚利桑那州制造工厂实现电动汽车生产流程的内部化，这在北美尚属首次。亚利桑那州制造工厂将包括多个组件，包括目前正在生产 Lucid Air 的“先进制造工厂”(“AMP-1”)。随着 Lucid 准备生产其首款 SUV Project Gravity， AMP-1 的第二阶段扩张也进展顺利。AMP-1 的产能目前为每年 30,000 辆，随着产品线中添加更多车型，随着销量的增加，产能将扩大到每年 400,000 辆。亚利桑那州制造工厂还将设有 “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant”（“LPM-1”），Lucid 将在这里生产其动力总成技术，包括电池组、电动机和家用充电装置。尽管对于电动汽车初创企业来说是一个资本密集型项目，但亚利桑那州制造工厂将通过垂直整合提高 Lucid 的运营和成本效率，并更好地控制产出的质量和一致性。</blockquote> Similar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.<blockquote>与 Fisker 类似，Lucid 计划在其他车型上重复使用其工程平台 “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform”（“LEAP”），以最大限度地提高初始资本投资的回报，并提高车辆上市的速度和效率。Lucid 的 LEAP 平台完全由内部设计和开发，与他们的商业模式相符。该平台包括他们标志性的电池组和电池管理软件、电动机、电力电子设备、变速器、控制软件和增压充电器。</blockquote> Inherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer<blockquote>对于新来者来说运营世界级制造工厂的固有挑战</blockquote> A Capital-Intensive Effort<blockquote>资本密集型工作</blockquote> As mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&amp;D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from&nbsp;Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.<blockquote>如上所述，Lucid 在亚利桑那州的最新制造工厂对于电动汽车行业的新进入者来说是一个资本密集型项目，因为他们已经在为自己的第一辆车承担昂贵的研发负担。尽管亚利桑那州生产工厂之前已经拥有在硅谷内部制造电动方程式电池系统的经验，但其运营规模将更大，包括零部件生产和车辆组装。除了计划投资 7 亿美元建设工厂外，Lucid 每年还需要花费 180 万美元租赁工厂所在的土地。与该行业最近的许多新进入者类似，Lucid 已经濒临破产过一次；沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金向该公司注资 10 亿美元，最终挽救了该公司的生命。此后，该公司一直按计划运营，并有望在2021年底前开始交付Lucid Air。他们最近与 Churchill Capital Corp IV 的 SPAC 反向合并也将为该公司提供 44 亿美元的资本，这将进一步增强其持续发展和扩张所需的流动性。</blockquote> A Limited Target Audience<blockquote>有限的目标受众</blockquote> Lucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.<blockquote>Lucid 还将自己定位为一家豪华高端电动汽车制造商，在竞争激烈的环境中迎合利基市场，这进一步缩小了他们的市场份额。然而，很明显，考虑到 Lucid Air 的独特产品，该公司从一开始就承认了这一挑战，包括一次充满电可行驶超过 500 英里的动力系统，这使它们有别于同一价格范围内的其他产品。</blockquote> Diverse Revenue Streams<blockquote>多元化收入来源</blockquote> A key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an&nbsp;estimated value of $37.69 million&nbsp;by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.<blockquote>Lucid 的一个关键竞争优势是他们维持多元化收入来源的能力。除了生产和销售车辆，该公司还因其在开发电池管理系统方面的丰富专业知识而闻名。全球电动汽车电池市场预计将在未来五年内飙升，到2025年估计价值将达到3769万美元，原因是消费者态度的变化以及政府通过金融激励和严格的气候变化政策进行干预推动了电动汽车销量的增长。Lucid计划利用他们现有的专业知识，并利用电气化浪潮带来的未来增长机会，包括开发“储能系统”（“ESS”）。ESS 利用 Lucid 现有的电池和电力电子技术，使公司能够最大限度地提高已部署的资本投资回报。</blockquote> Lucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.<blockquote>Lucid 也是电动方程式赛车所有 OEM 车队的电池组和软件的持续供应商。该公司计划发展现有的电池技术，以扩大其与其他产品的兼容性范围，包括飞机、电动垂直起降和其他商用机械。通过在亚利桑那州工厂的新电池制造厂 LPM-1 进行大规模生产，可以轻松实现这一增长机会。同样，这一机会将使 Lucid 能够最大限度地提高其资本投资的回报，这些资本投资已用于开发最先进的电池系统和建设电池制造厂。</blockquote> Financial Performance<blockquote>财务表现</blockquote> The company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.<blockquote>该公司尚未公布其完整财务记录的任何公开文件。然而，最新的分析师日演示表明，该公司迄今为止已获得超过 9,000 辆 Lucid Air 预订，其中 500 辆代表限量生产的梦想版车型，目前的溢价为 169,900 美元，已全部预订，这表明需求强劲，客户吸引力不断增加。这意味着 Lucid Air Dream Edition 的收入至少为 8495 万美元，其他 Lucid Air 型号的收入为 6.579 亿美元，保守假设它们都是售价为 77,400 美元的基本型号。值得注意的是，目前的预订是完全可以取消和退款的；然而，即使实际销售额比当前预订数量下降10%，该公司仍有望产生至少7.126亿美元的总收入。</blockquote> We are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a&nbsp;global sales footprint&nbsp;across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.<blockquote>考虑到 Lucid Air 全年的生产和销售，我们预测 2022 年收入将达到 22 亿至 23 亿美元，这与管理层在分析师日演讲中的预测一致。考虑到 Lucid 不断扩大的高价汽车产品组合，以及遍布北美、欧洲和中东的全球销售足迹，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以 30% 至 40% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，到 2025 年，该公司将开始实现 6.31 亿至 9.15 亿美元的利润。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>i.基本案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5729ab372255e42956fd0c35a91f50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>二、牛市案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b6ba74ec468be67491e2e1dc942f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>iii. 熊市财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b194fbb93dd81b6c79120ef86df6fd7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\">Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部财务预测</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c375cacc8c0978717e14611659a9e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型（LCID_-_Valuation.pdf）。</blockquote> Based on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.<blockquote>根据上述对 Lucid 当前预订率和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 96 亿美元（基本情况）至 141 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 36.54 美元和 53.83 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 23.55 美元，这意味着大约 55% 至 129% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote> i. Base Case Valuation:<blockquote>一、基本案例估价：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f41f8b2bd3382a38f13d4cac18f3ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Valuation:<blockquote>二、牛市估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e505e76632b9ca8142c4238a345f7eb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Valuation:<blockquote>三、熊案例估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df96ba5195d156c938f941d22d9f89c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部估值模型。</blockquote> Conclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker<blockquote>结论：Lucid Motors 与 Fisker</blockquote> Based on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.<blockquote>根据我们的分析，两家公司都处于有利地位，可以利用全球向电动汽车转型的新兴时代。尽管在两个极端的商业模式下运营，Fisker和Lucid都表现出了通过独特产品来对抗各自商业模式固有劣势的能力。Fisker 的资产精益商业模式允许将更高的资本部署到其他被认为对增强客户服务更重要的领域，并降低生产成本，为买家提供负担得起的价格，而 Lucid 的资本密集型和垂直一体化战略则通过交叉兼容、最先进的电池技术通过规模经济实现更高的运营和成本效率来弥补。两家公司还将迎合不同市场的需求--Fisker 的最大卖点是价格实惠，而 Lucid 的定位是满足那些追求奢华而不奢侈体验的人的需求。两家公司都打算采用直销策略来最大限度地提高客户体验，并在美国和欧洲开设展厅和体验中心。</blockquote> Although our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.<blockquote>尽管我们的估值显示 Fisker 的上涨潜力略高于 Lucid，但我们相信后者在短期内进行了更安全的投资，因为 Lucid Air 已经进入生产阶段，预计将在年底前开始交付，而 Fisker Ocean 仍处于测试阶段，核心技术功能尚未向公众公布，距离投产还有 18 个月。然而，我们相信，从长远来看，两家电动汽车制造商都具备在行业中脱颖而出的人才和资源。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-04 22:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.</li> <li>Europe is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.</li> <li>Two of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.</li> <li>We believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b427058aa1c9aea96553593b7ed1e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"510\">Photo by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车（「EV」）近年来成为焦点，二零二零年的销量同比强劲增长43%。</li><li>到 2025 年，欧洲预计将拥有 300 多款电动汽车车型，而到 2026 年，美国预计将拥有 130 多款电动汽车车型。</li><li>两家新兴的电动汽车初创公司包括 Lucid Motors 和 Fisker，这两家公司都位于加利福尼亚州，预计分别于 2021 年底和 2022 年底开始生产和交付。</li><li>我们认为两家公司目前都被低估，上涨潜力超过 150%。</li></ul>照片由domin_domin/E+提供，盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year&nbsp;while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车（「EV」）成为人们关注的焦点，尽管全球汽车销量因新冠疫情相关影响而下滑，但二零二零年的销量仍呈现强劲增长。2020年，全球电动汽车销量没有受到断断续续的封锁和对经济不确定性的挥之不去的警惕的影响，而是继续保持增长势头，同比增长43%，而整体汽车销量下降20%。由于技术进步，消费者对电动汽车的负担能力和实用性不断提高，加上政府通过补贴和气候变化政策进行干预，预计将在十年内进一步推高电动汽车的销售数据；到2030年，电动汽车销量预计将超过3110万辆，占全球新车销量的32%。</blockquote> The next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts&nbsp;more than 300 available EV models&nbsp;within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than&nbsp;130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.<blockquote>未来十年将是电气化时代，随着电动汽车占据中心舞台，该行业将面临巨大机遇。欧洲运输与环境联合会预测，到 2025 年，欧洲汽车市场将有 300 多款电动汽车车型可用，而 IHS Markit 预测，到 2026 年，美国将有 130 多款电动汽车车型可用。</blockquote> Two of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.<blockquote>打入美国和欧洲电动汽车市场的两个新兴品牌包括 Lucid Motors（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）或 “Lucid”）和 Fisker（纽约证券交易所股票代码：FSR）。这两家总部位于加利福尼亚州的公司已经推出了各自的旗舰车型，现已开放预订；Lucid 预计将于 2021 年底首次交付，Fisker 预计将于 2022 年底首次交付。除了令人惊叹的车辆之外，这两只股票还在最新的科技股反弹中大放异彩，自各自发布 IPO 和 IPO 前公告以来，Fisker 的股价分别达到 187% 和 Lucid 的股价达到 480% 的峰值。</blockquote> Fisker Inc.<blockquote>菲斯克公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d67f9efb3fba9a363fca7f11f130a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\">Source:fiskerinc.com<blockquote>资料来源：fiskerinc.com</blockquote> Launched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.<blockquote>这家总部位于南加州的电动汽车制造商于 2016 年推出，其品牌宗旨是通过打造 “世界上最具情感和可持续的汽车 ”，为所有人提供 “清洁未来 ”。该公司目前由联合创始人 Henrik Fisker 和 Geeta Gupta-Fisker 博士领导，以及一支在各自行业拥有多年行业经验的强大执行团队。亨里克·菲斯克最出名的是他在豪华汽车领域为宝马和阿斯顿·马丁等知名品牌进行的颠覆性设计。在创办菲斯克公司之前，亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）与人共同创办了 “菲斯克汽车 ”公司，该公司因生产世界上第一辆豪华混合动力超级跑车菲斯克-卡玛（Fisker Karma）而闻名，但在 2012 年因破产而倒闭。这位汽车设计师这次带着过去的经验教训和创新的商业模式--“资产精益 ”方法--重返赛场，为快速变化的行业注入了新的活力。</blockquote> The “Asset-Lean Approach”<blockquote>“资产精益方法”</blockquote> Fisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to&nbsp;29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.<blockquote>Fisker 的资产精益方法需要将差异化视为非必要的业务组成部分外包，包括平台工程、生产和组装、充电网络和其他车队管理服务。该商业模式不仅将使该公司从概念到交付的 60 个月的典型时间表大幅缩短至 29 个月，而且还可以将更多资金部署到对客户体验至关重要的领域，包括设计、软件、用户界面和高级驾驶员辅助系统 (“ADAS”)。通过这种商业模式实现的降低成本也将使菲斯克能够在不影响质量的情况下将车辆价格保持在可承受的范围内。</blockquote> Fisker’s flagship model will be the&nbsp;Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a&nbsp;Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range&nbsp;sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.<blockquote>Fisker 的旗舰车型将是 Fisker Ocean SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月 17 日开始生产，明年年底前将在欧洲和美国进行首批交付。作为品牌精益资产使命的一部分，菲斯克与麦格纳斯太尔（“麦格纳”）建立了合作伙伴关系，共同设计和生产菲斯克海洋。两家公司目前正在合作打造一个独特的 “FM29 ”平台，该平台将作为其旗舰 SUV 以及至少一款其他菲斯克车型的基础。通过利用麦格纳现有的技术和已建立的制造设施，这家电动汽车制造商将能够加快将汽车推向市场的时间表，同时降低汽车开发成本。交叉兼容平台还将使 Fisker 能够与优质供应商实现供应的批量定价，从而进一步降低车辆制造成本，既提高客户的负担能力，又提高公司的利润率。Fisker Ocean 的入门价格为 37,499 美元，最高级的车型售价为 69,900 美元；结合高达350英里的行驶里程，这款全电动SUV在平均行驶里程约为250英里的同价位车型中脱颖而出。Fisker Ocean 的目标是成为 “高端销量 ”车型，预计年产量将超过 10 万辆。</blockquote> A similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an&nbsp;agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.<blockquote>类似的方法也应用于他们的第二个模型PEAR的开发和生产。菲斯克已经与富士康达成协议——富士康以与苹果合作生产iPhone而闻名——为这款革命性车辆设计和生产一个全新的平台，价格低于3万美元。目前车型细节有限，但新车型预计将采用独特的设计和革命性的体验，使其有别于任何现有的电动汽车细分市场。PEAR 计划于 2023 年第四季度开始生产，初步全年产量预计将达到 25 万辆。该车将首先在美国推出，并进一步扩展到中国、欧洲和印度市场。</blockquote> Inherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model<blockquote>菲斯克商业模式的固有风险</blockquote> Significant Reliance on Production Partners<blockquote>严重依赖生产合作伙伴</blockquote> Fisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including&nbsp;BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).<blockquote>菲斯克的商业模式需要将部分工程和生产流程外包给第三方。公司严重依赖与第三方制造商和供应商的关系，这使他们在运营方面面临重大风险，如质量控制问题或产能限制导致的延误。麦格纳斯太尔目前为宝马、戴姆勒和捷豹路虎等知名汽车品牌生产产品。菲斯克的年产能约为 20 万辆，如果将菲斯克加入他们的生产线，麦格纳的每个合作伙伴平均将获得 5 万辆。考虑到菲斯克年产 10 万辆菲斯克海洋的看涨期权，麦格纳可能需要放弃其现有合作伙伴之一，降低其他客户的生产水平，或投资扩大其产能以实现业绩目标，从而给这家制造巨头带来高昂的机会成本。为了激励其生产合作伙伴使海洋计划取得成功，并降低因产能限制而造成的延误风险，菲斯克向麦格纳提供了该公司 6% 的股份，可通过实现 “相互关联的业绩条件 ”来行使（2020 年 10K 第 97 页）。</blockquote> The same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to&nbsp;pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.<blockquote>同样的风险也适用于菲斯克与富士康合作生产梨。富士康此前在车辆制造过程中没有经验，这使得菲斯克面临与质量控制和延误相关的潜在风险。富士康是众多现有制造业资深人士之一，他们最近开始利用不断增长的电动汽车行业的 OEM 机会。这家电子制造商计划改造其位于威斯康星州的闲置工厂，以实现其电动汽车生产雄心。菲斯克打算利用富士康的制造专业知识，而富士康则寻求利用生产菲斯克电动汽车的经验，为进入更大的电动汽车市场铺平道路，并计划从长远来看为其他使用相同平台的公司生产电动汽车。尽管富士康在电动汽车生产方面缺乏经验，但合作伙伴希望利用其 “最少的汽车遗产，在各个方面实现全面的零负担”，与可能受到现有合同负担限制的经验丰富的汽车制造商竞争。</blockquote> Exposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality<blockquote>暴露于产品质量不一致</blockquote> Working with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.<blockquote>与多个合作伙伴合作也可能使公司面临车辆质量不一致的问题，并最终影响消费者对品牌的信心。如果与一家合作伙伴联合生产的汽车不幸出现故障，可能会严重损害菲斯克的声誉和消费者对该品牌的信心。</blockquote> In addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.<blockquote>此外，鉴于菲斯克商业模式的协作性质，与其他品牌相比，菲斯克的制造商很少作为营销策略的一部分进行广播，消费者可能会开始对菲斯克各自汽车的生产合作伙伴产生兴趣。菲斯克商业模式的高度协作性质可能会导致消费者开始根据制造商的质量和声誉而不是品牌来权衡购买决策，这剥夺了菲斯克在汽车开发过程中的信誉。</blockquote> Overly Aggressive Targets<blockquote>过于激进的目标</blockquote> As mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of&nbsp;6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of&nbsp;close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.<blockquote>如上所述，Fisker 计划每年至少生产 100,000 台 Fisker Ocean，并在生产的第一个全年生产 250,000 台 PEAR。然而，这些高数字引起了人们对它们是否合理可实现的好奇。根据这些生产目标，到 2024 年，菲斯克将生产约 350,000 辆汽车。根据预计到 2024 年电动汽车销量将达到 620 万辆，这将代表 7% 的市场份额，对于一家仅运营两年、仅有两款车型可供销售的电动汽车初创公司来说，这相当可观。与全球公认的行业领导者特斯拉相比，假设的 7% 市场份额将是特斯拉 2020 年全球电动汽车销售市场份额近 4% 的两倍。即使菲斯克能够为客户提供价格优势，实现全球电动汽车销售 7% 的市场份额也将是一项挑战，特别是考虑到未来几年将推出大量竞争车型。根据我们对菲斯克及其运营合作伙伴的产能和预期电动汽车需求的考虑，我们认为这些销量预测更有可能在 2026 年实现。</blockquote> Financial Outlook<blockquote>财务展望</blockquote> Following Fisker’s IPO through a&nbsp;SPAC reverse merger&nbsp;sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.<blockquote>2020 年 10 月，Fisker 通过 Spartan Energy Acquisition 发起的 SPAC 反向合并进行首次公开募股，随后该公司获得了 10 亿美元的注资，根据 Fisker 的商业计划，这正好是开发和生产 Fisker Ocean SUV 所需的资金。距离 Fisker Ocean 开始生产仅剩 18 个月，该公司继续按照计划和预算内执行开发流程，第一季度末现金和现金等价物为 9.854 亿美元，同时保持无债务资产负债表。对于最新的 PEAR 模型，该公司预计要到 2023 年才会进行重大资本投资，除了从债务或股权发行中获得的外部融资外，他们计划通过 Fisker Ocean 销售运营产生的现金来部分资助。</blockquote> We are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.<blockquote>我们预计到 2023 年，收入将达到 12 亿至 14 亿美元，主要来自 Fisker Ocean SUV 在上市第一个整年后销售约 20,000 辆，以及少量 PEAR 车型，因为预计从 2023 年第四季度开始交付。我们的预测预测旗舰 SUV 的销量将会下降，这与欧洲和美国电动汽车市场最近推出的电动 SUV 持平。我们相信，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，Fisker 将在 2025 年底或 2026 年初实现 Fisker Ocean 100,000 辆的年产量目标。</blockquote> Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.<blockquote>考虑到 Fisker 将继续向美国和欧洲市场以外的中国和印度市场扩张，以及 2025 年前除了 Fisker Ocean 和 PEAR 车型外，还将推出另外两款车型，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以约 30% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，在销售额持续增长的推动下，公司到 2024 年将开始实现 1.57 亿至 2.85 亿美元的利润，根据菲斯克的商业计划，终身毛利率将在 19% 至 25% 之间。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>i.基本案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc16e7b0a00d872cb9a339ed0e5f5aec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>二、牛市案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a29e2cf2a5b538f356c802408f4a4b22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>iii. 熊市财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372ca6f8d253e742af8bce8fc078734c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\">Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度和中期报告以及我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985813dcd25b735d9596a849970216ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\">Author, with data from our internal valuation model<blockquote>作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型</blockquote> Based on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.<blockquote>根据上述对 Fisker 基本面和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 46 亿美元（基本情况）至 103 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 16.29 美元和 36.94 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 14.69 美元，这意味着上涨潜力约为 11% 至 151%。</blockquote> i. Base Case Valuation:<blockquote>一、基本案例估价：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0832647b2ae0a671bc2bf99d66f6df4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Valuation:<blockquote>二、牛市估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc71a141c6aba19be9f07bcfef67aac7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Valuation:<blockquote>三、熊案例估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b71936724a89c41dde8bb61620357e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\">Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度及中期报告以及我们的内部估值模型。</blockquote> Lucid Motors Inc.<blockquote>Lucid汽车公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8bb28783a9c0e183733805b450beae8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\">Source:lucidmotors.com<blockquote>资料来源：lucidmotors.com</blockquote> Founded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the&nbsp;first Formula-E battery pack&nbsp;capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the&nbsp;Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.<blockquote>Lucid Motors 成立于 2007 年，前身为 Atieva，是一家著名的电动汽车电池和动力系统制造商。2016年，在特斯拉前首席车辆工程师Peter Rawlinson的领导下，该公司正式更名为Lucid Motors。目前，Lucid 的首席执行官兼首席技术官 Peter Rawlinson 领导该公司开发了第一个电动方程式赛车电池组，能够为整个比赛的赛车提供动力。这项技术后来发展成为该汽车制造商于 2016 年底推出的旗舰豪华电动轿车 Lucid Air 中使用的电池组。</blockquote> The company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.<blockquote>该公司的成功建立在开发世界一流的高性能电动汽车的承诺之上。Lucid Air 的动力系统在充满电后可行驶 500 英里以上，创下了行业历史新高。除了世界一流的电池技术外，该公司还秉持着未来将由技术驱动的核心信念，这将使他们与传统汽车制造商为满足不断变化的消费者需求而生产的大量新型电动汽车车型区分开来。与 Fisker 的车辆类似，Lucid 也优先考虑车内的连接性，为车主提供无线更新。该公司的车辆还配备了先进的 ADAS 功能，如自动紧急制动、交叉交通警报和驾驶员监控系统；当测试完成并获得监管部门批准后，3 级自动驾驶功能预计也将通过无线更新推出。Lucid Air 也将是首批集成面部 ID 识别功能的电动汽车之一，该功能将与车内的预测分析技术集成，根据驾驶员的行为自动加载预设或随着时间的推移学习的配置文件和偏好。</blockquote> The brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.<blockquote>该品牌目前定位于 “后豪华 ”市场，Lucid 将其定义为追求奢华而不奢侈体验的市场。Lucid 并不害怕为其旗舰车型付出高价，该车型配备了一些最先进的技术以及优质的外观和内饰构成——Lucid Air 的价格从基本车型的 77,400 美元到顶级梦想版的 169,000 美元不等。</blockquote> A Highly Integrated Automaker<blockquote>高度一体化的汽车制造商</blockquote> In contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&amp;D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.<blockquote>与 Fisker 不同，Lucid 的业务建立在高度集成的模式之上。Lucid 对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、信息娱乐系统、暖通空调、集成安全、底盘和 ADAS 系统。该汽车制造商还将在其亚利桑那州制造工厂实现电动汽车生产流程的内部化，这在北美尚属首次。亚利桑那州制造工厂将包括多个组件，包括目前正在生产 Lucid Air 的“先进制造工厂”(“AMP-1”)。随着 Lucid 准备生产其首款 SUV Project Gravity， AMP-1 的第二阶段扩张也进展顺利。AMP-1 的产能目前为每年 30,000 辆，随着产品线中添加更多车型，随着销量的增加，产能将扩大到每年 400,000 辆。亚利桑那州制造工厂还将设有 “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant”（“LPM-1”），Lucid 将在这里生产其动力总成技术，包括电池组、电动机和家用充电装置。尽管对于电动汽车初创企业来说是一个资本密集型项目，但亚利桑那州制造工厂将通过垂直整合提高 Lucid 的运营和成本效率，并更好地控制产出的质量和一致性。</blockquote> Similar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.<blockquote>与 Fisker 类似，Lucid 计划在其他车型上重复使用其工程平台 “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform”（“LEAP”），以最大限度地提高初始资本投资的回报，并提高车辆上市的速度和效率。Lucid 的 LEAP 平台完全由内部设计和开发，与他们的商业模式相符。该平台包括他们标志性的电池组和电池管理软件、电动机、电力电子设备、变速器、控制软件和增压充电器。</blockquote> Inherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer<blockquote>对于新来者来说运营世界级制造工厂的固有挑战</blockquote> A Capital-Intensive Effort<blockquote>资本密集型工作</blockquote> As mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&amp;D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from&nbsp;Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.<blockquote>如上所述，Lucid 在亚利桑那州的最新制造工厂对于电动汽车行业的新进入者来说是一个资本密集型项目，因为他们已经在为自己的第一辆车承担昂贵的研发负担。尽管亚利桑那州生产工厂之前已经拥有在硅谷内部制造电动方程式电池系统的经验，但其运营规模将更大，包括零部件生产和车辆组装。除了计划投资 7 亿美元建设工厂外，Lucid 每年还需要花费 180 万美元租赁工厂所在的土地。与该行业最近的许多新进入者类似，Lucid 已经濒临破产过一次；沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金向该公司注资 10 亿美元，最终挽救了该公司的生命。此后，该公司一直按计划运营，并有望在2021年底前开始交付Lucid Air。他们最近与 Churchill Capital Corp IV 的 SPAC 反向合并也将为该公司提供 44 亿美元的资本，这将进一步增强其持续发展和扩张所需的流动性。</blockquote> A Limited Target Audience<blockquote>有限的目标受众</blockquote> Lucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.<blockquote>Lucid 还将自己定位为一家豪华高端电动汽车制造商，在竞争激烈的环境中迎合利基市场，这进一步缩小了他们的市场份额。然而，很明显，考虑到 Lucid Air 的独特产品，该公司从一开始就承认了这一挑战，包括一次充满电可行驶超过 500 英里的动力系统，这使它们有别于同一价格范围内的其他产品。</blockquote> Diverse Revenue Streams<blockquote>多元化收入来源</blockquote> A key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an&nbsp;estimated value of $37.69 million&nbsp;by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.<blockquote>Lucid 的一个关键竞争优势是他们维持多元化收入来源的能力。除了生产和销售车辆，该公司还因其在开发电池管理系统方面的丰富专业知识而闻名。全球电动汽车电池市场预计将在未来五年内飙升，到2025年估计价值将达到3769万美元，原因是消费者态度的变化以及政府通过金融激励和严格的气候变化政策进行干预推动了电动汽车销量的增长。Lucid计划利用他们现有的专业知识，并利用电气化浪潮带来的未来增长机会，包括开发“储能系统”（“ESS”）。ESS 利用 Lucid 现有的电池和电力电子技术，使公司能够最大限度地提高已部署的资本投资回报。</blockquote> Lucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.<blockquote>Lucid 也是电动方程式赛车所有 OEM 车队的电池组和软件的持续供应商。该公司计划发展现有的电池技术，以扩大其与其他产品的兼容性范围，包括飞机、电动垂直起降和其他商用机械。通过在亚利桑那州工厂的新电池制造厂 LPM-1 进行大规模生产，可以轻松实现这一增长机会。同样，这一机会将使 Lucid 能够最大限度地提高其资本投资的回报，这些资本投资已用于开发最先进的电池系统和建设电池制造厂。</blockquote> Financial Performance<blockquote>财务表现</blockquote> The company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.<blockquote>该公司尚未公布其完整财务记录的任何公开文件。然而，最新的分析师日演示表明，该公司迄今为止已获得超过 9,000 辆 Lucid Air 预订，其中 500 辆代表限量生产的梦想版车型，目前的溢价为 169,900 美元，已全部预订，这表明需求强劲，客户吸引力不断增加。这意味着 Lucid Air Dream Edition 的收入至少为 8495 万美元，其他 Lucid Air 型号的收入为 6.579 亿美元，保守假设它们都是售价为 77,400 美元的基本型号。值得注意的是，目前的预订是完全可以取消和退款的；然而，即使实际销售额比当前预订数量下降10%，该公司仍有望产生至少7.126亿美元的总收入。</blockquote> We are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a&nbsp;global sales footprint&nbsp;across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.<blockquote>考虑到 Lucid Air 全年的生产和销售，我们预测 2022 年收入将达到 22 亿至 23 亿美元，这与管理层在分析师日演讲中的预测一致。考虑到 Lucid 不断扩大的高价汽车产品组合，以及遍布北美、欧洲和中东的全球销售足迹，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以 30% 至 40% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，到 2025 年，该公司将开始实现 6.31 亿至 9.15 亿美元的利润。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>i.基本案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5729ab372255e42956fd0c35a91f50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>二、牛市案例财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b6ba74ec468be67491e2e1dc942f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:<blockquote>iii. 熊市财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b194fbb93dd81b6c79120ef86df6fd7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\">Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部财务预测</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c375cacc8c0978717e14611659a9e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型（LCID_-_Valuation.pdf）。</blockquote> Based on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.<blockquote>根据上述对 Lucid 当前预订率和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 96 亿美元（基本情况）至 141 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 36.54 美元和 53.83 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 23.55 美元，这意味着大约 55% 至 129% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote> i. Base Case Valuation:<blockquote>一、基本案例估价：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f41f8b2bd3382a38f13d4cac18f3ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"><blockquote></blockquote> ii. Bull Case Valuation:<blockquote>二、牛市估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e505e76632b9ca8142c4238a345f7eb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> iii. Bear Case Valuation:<blockquote>三、熊案例估值：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df96ba5195d156c938f941d22d9f89c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部估值模型。</blockquote> Conclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker<blockquote>结论：Lucid Motors 与 Fisker</blockquote> Based on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.<blockquote>根据我们的分析，两家公司都处于有利地位，可以利用全球向电动汽车转型的新兴时代。尽管在两个极端的商业模式下运营，Fisker和Lucid都表现出了通过独特产品来对抗各自商业模式固有劣势的能力。Fisker 的资产精益商业模式允许将更高的资本部署到其他被认为对增强客户服务更重要的领域，并降低生产成本，为买家提供负担得起的价格，而 Lucid 的资本密集型和垂直一体化战略则通过交叉兼容、最先进的电池技术通过规模经济实现更高的运营和成本效率来弥补。两家公司还将迎合不同市场的需求--Fisker 的最大卖点是价格实惠，而 Lucid 的定位是满足那些追求奢华而不奢侈体验的人的需求。两家公司都打算采用直销策略来最大限度地提高客户体验，并在美国和欧洲开设展厅和体验中心。</blockquote> Although our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.<blockquote>尽管我们的估值显示 Fisker 的上涨潜力略高于 Lucid，但我们相信后者在短期内进行了更安全的投资，因为 Lucid Air 已经进入生产阶段，预计将在年底前开始交付，而 Fisker Ocean 仍处于测试阶段，核心技术功能尚未向公众公布，距离投产还有 18 个月。然而，我们相信，从长远来看，两家电动汽车制造商都具备在行业中脱颖而出的人才和资源。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433105-lucid-motors-fisker-better-ev-stock-buy\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克","LCDX":"CALIBER IMAGING & DIAGNOSTICS INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433105-lucid-motors-fisker-better-ev-stock-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153560369","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.\nEurope is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.\nTwo of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.\nWe believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.\n\nPhoto by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.\nThe next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts more than 300 available EV models within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than 130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.\nTwo of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.\nFisker Inc.\nSource:fiskerinc.com\nLaunched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.\nThe “Asset-Lean Approach”\nFisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to 29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.\nFisker’s flagship model will be the Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.\nA similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.\nInherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model\nSignificant Reliance on Production Partners\nFisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).\nThe same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.\nExposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality\nWorking with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.\nIn addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.\nOverly Aggressive Targets\nAs mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of 6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.\nFinancial Outlook\nFollowing Fisker’s IPO through a SPAC reverse merger sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.\nWe are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.\nTotal revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecasts:\n\nii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:\n\niii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:\nSource: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.\nValuation\nAuthor, with data from our internal valuation model\nBased on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.\ni. Base Case Valuation:\n\nii. Bull Case Valuation:\n\niii. Bear Case Valuation:\nSource: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.\nLucid Motors Inc.\nSource:lucidmotors.com\nFounded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the first Formula-E battery pack capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.\nThe company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.\nThe brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.\nA Highly Integrated Automaker\nIn contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.\nSimilar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.\nInherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer\nA Capital-Intensive Effort\nAs mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.\nA Limited Target Audience\nLucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.\nDiverse Revenue Streams\nA key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an estimated value of $37.69 million by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.\nLucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.\nFinancial Performance\nThe company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.\nWe are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a global sales footprint across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecasts:\n\nii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:\n\niii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:\nSource: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts\nValuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).\nBased on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.\ni. Base Case Valuation:\n\nii. Bull Case Valuation:\n\niii. Bear Case Valuation:\nSource: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.\nConclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker\nBased on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.\nAlthough our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCDX":0.9,"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116789845"}