iamted
2021-06-04
Disappointment
3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的3个理由</blockquote>
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I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48135c9af201c82b96bfc83b7252a15\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"485\"><span>Photo by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉利德科学是一家盈利稳定的企业，利润率高，自由现金流强劲。</li><li>虽然它确实有专利悬崖需要处理，但前景广阔的管道可以弥补这一点。</li><li>GILD的估值似乎很低。我还强调了股息、资产负债表和其他值得考虑的要点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Galeanu Mihai/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能会出于各种原因回避战场股票。然而，重要的是要记住，每枚硬币都有两面，一些投资者看到风险，另一些投资者看到机会。这让我想到了吉利德科学(GILD)，它似乎就是这样一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我强调了该股票的优点和缺点，并研究了目前值得买入股息和增长的原因，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Makes Gilead A Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么让吉利德值得买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一家大型生物制药公司，已有三十多年的历史，业务遍及全球超过35个国家。它最出名的是生产治疗危及生命的疾病的药物，包括艾滋病毒、病毒性肝炎和癌症。在过去12个月中，吉利德的总收入为$25.6 B。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).</p><p><blockquote>我看好GILD的原因之一是，在其高利润率的支持下，该企业仍然是摇钱树。在过去的十年里，GILD的营业利润率几乎一直保持在40%以上。这说明了其治疗的关键任务性质以及GILD在此期间拥有的定价权。如下图所示，GILD的营业利润率高于美国同行默克(MRK)、艾伯维(ABBV)、辉瑞(PFE)、安进(AMGN)和百时美施贵宝(BMY)。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2da5e1c969783d3d7045e000aac1260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.</p><p><blockquote>其次，与此同时，GILD目前是制药行业中股息收益率最高的公司之一。GILD的远期收益率为4.3%，仅低于上述同行中ABBV 4.7%的收益率。它还具有足够的安全性和增长性，因为它的派息率为40%，5年复合年增长率为16.4%。较低的派息率为GILD提供了充足的财务灵活性来偿还债务和股票回购，其中包括21年第一季度13亿美元的债务偿还和3.09亿美元的股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> As seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.</p><p><blockquote>如下所示，由于相对低估和这段时间内股息强劲增长，GILD的股息收益率目前几乎处于过去10年的最高水平。注：下图显示了基于过去12个月股息的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459ce3787c409817fc8e572a899e40e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.</p><p><blockquote>第三，GILD在具有新适应症的新型癌症药物Trodelvy方面拥有前景广阔的产品线。这包括乳腺癌、膀胱癌和晚期尿路上皮癌的申请，这些申请最近于4月份获得了FDA的加速批准。Trodelvy有潜力成为GILD的下一个重磅药物，晨星公司估计，到2030年，它每年的概率加权销售额将达到50亿美元。这相当重要，因为它占GILD当前年运行率收入的20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，GILD继续公布强劲的业绩，而其他大型制药公司则出现下滑。这反映在21年第一季度的强劲表现上，在此期间，在Veklury（也称为Remdesivir，COVID-19抗病毒治疗药物）和Yescarta&Tecartus（癌症治疗药物）的推动下，GILD的收入同比增长16%至$6.4 B来自Kite Pharma收购的治疗药物。在运营效率和较低税率的推动下，调整后每股收益同比增长24%，这也让我感到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.</p><p><blockquote>转向资产负债表，由于积极的收购策略，GILD的净债务余额近年来有所增加。这包括2019年以近40亿美元收购Galapagos，以及去年以210亿美元收购Immunomedics，其中引入了药物Trodelvy。我对第一季度偿还的1.3 B美元感到鼓舞，净债务与EBITDA比率为1.7倍，远低于我希望看到的3.0倍水平。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GILD在过去12个月中产生了$8.7 B的杠杆自由现金流（支付利息后）。股息后，剩余现金流为$5.2 B，用于偿还债务。因此，假设GILD可以在短短4.5年后将其净债务余额减少至0美元，前提是它至少保持相同的自由现金流水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Valuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.</p><p><blockquote>就估值而言，我认为GILD目前66.48美元的价格很有吸引力，远期市盈率仅为9.4。按照这个估值，GILD本质上是为未来没有增长而定价的，但我认为事实并非如此。虽然分析师预计明年盈利将出现中个位数下降，但盈利能力预计将在2023-2024年期间回升，每股收益年增长率为5-14%。根据2024年分析师的预测，这使得GILD的远期市盈率仅为8.4。分析师一致给予GILD买入评级，目标价为75美元，晨星将GILD评级为4星买入，目标价为80美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90b3fd475450d2edeff9cc9cd8a15c7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:</p><p><blockquote>当然，任何投资都不是没有风险的，以下几点值得考虑：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Like all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.</li> <li>There’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.</li> <li>Price competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.</li> <li>Investors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.</li> </ul> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与所有制药公司一样，GILD也必须应对专利悬崖。这包括其艾滋病毒药物的专利今年到期。因此，GILD需要将其HIV患者转化为Biktarvy等更新的产品。</li><li>不能保证新药和正在研发的药物会达到他们的期望。</li><li>来自同行的价格竞争可能会给PBM（药房福利经理）更多的杠杆来与GILD积极谈判。</li><li>投资者应始终保持适当的风险上限和多元化。</li></ul><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一只战场制药股，无论从哪方面来看，它似乎都很便宜。尽管人们对专利悬崖存在一些合理的担忧，但GILD仍然是一家盈利稳定的企业，拥有强劲的利润率和自由现金流，并且拥有充满希望的管道。与此同时，GILD支付4.3%的股息收益率，派息率较低。</blockquote></p><p> This leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.</p><p><blockquote>这为管理层在第一季度执行的股票回购和债务偿还留下了充足的空间。按照目前的估值，GILD的定价是未来没有增长，但我认为情况并非如此。因此，我认为GILD对于长期收入和增长来说是一个有吸引力的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Gilead Sciences Is A Cash Cow You Can Buy Today<blockquote>吉利德科学是您今天可以购买的摇钱树的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 17:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Gilead Sciences is a solidly profitable enterprise with high margins and strong free cash flow.</li> <li>While it does have patent cliffs to deal with, the promising pipeline could make up for that.</li> <li>GILD appears to be cheaply valued. I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48135c9af201c82b96bfc83b7252a15\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"485\"><span>Photo by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉利德科学是一家盈利稳定的企业，利润率高，自由现金流强劲。</li><li>虽然它确实有专利悬崖需要处理，但前景广阔的管道可以弥补这一点。</li><li>GILD的估值似乎很低。我还强调了股息、资产负债表和其他值得考虑的要点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Galeanu Mihai/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能会出于各种原因回避战场股票。然而，重要的是要记住，每枚硬币都有两面，一些投资者看到风险，另一些投资者看到机会。这让我想到了吉利德科学(GILD)，它似乎就是这样一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我强调了该股票的优点和缺点，并研究了目前值得买入股息和增长的原因，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Makes Gilead A Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么让吉利德值得买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一家大型生物制药公司，已有三十多年的历史，业务遍及全球超过35个国家。它最出名的是生产治疗危及生命的疾病的药物，包括艾滋病毒、病毒性肝炎和癌症。在过去12个月中，吉利德的总收入为$25.6 B。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).</p><p><blockquote>我看好GILD的原因之一是，在其高利润率的支持下，该企业仍然是摇钱树。在过去的十年里，GILD的营业利润率几乎一直保持在40%以上。这说明了其治疗的关键任务性质以及GILD在此期间拥有的定价权。如下图所示，GILD的营业利润率高于美国同行默克(MRK)、艾伯维(ABBV)、辉瑞(PFE)、安进(AMGN)和百时美施贵宝(BMY)。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2da5e1c969783d3d7045e000aac1260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.</p><p><blockquote>其次，与此同时，GILD目前是制药行业中股息收益率最高的公司之一。GILD的远期收益率为4.3%，仅低于上述同行中ABBV 4.7%的收益率。它还具有足够的安全性和增长性，因为它的派息率为40%，5年复合年增长率为16.4%。较低的派息率为GILD提供了充足的财务灵活性来偿还债务和股票回购，其中包括21年第一季度13亿美元的债务偿还和3.09亿美元的股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> As seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.</p><p><blockquote>如下所示，由于相对低估和这段时间内股息强劲增长，GILD的股息收益率目前几乎处于过去10年的最高水平。注：下图显示了基于过去12个月股息的股息收益率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459ce3787c409817fc8e572a899e40e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: YCharts)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：YCharts）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.</p><p><blockquote>第三，GILD在具有新适应症的新型癌症药物Trodelvy方面拥有前景广阔的产品线。这包括乳腺癌、膀胱癌和晚期尿路上皮癌的申请，这些申请最近于4月份获得了FDA的加速批准。Trodelvy有潜力成为GILD的下一个重磅药物，晨星公司估计，到2030年，它每年的概率加权销售额将达到50亿美元。这相当重要，因为它占GILD当前年运行率收入的20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，GILD继续公布强劲的业绩，而其他大型制药公司则出现下滑。这反映在21年第一季度的强劲表现上，在此期间，在Veklury（也称为Remdesivir，COVID-19抗病毒治疗药物）和Yescarta&Tecartus（癌症治疗药物）的推动下，GILD的收入同比增长16%至$6.4 B来自Kite Pharma收购的治疗药物。在运营效率和较低税率的推动下，调整后每股收益同比增长24%，这也让我感到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Turning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.</p><p><blockquote>转向资产负债表，由于积极的收购策略，GILD的净债务余额近年来有所增加。这包括2019年以近40亿美元收购Galapagos，以及去年以210亿美元收购Immunomedics，其中引入了药物Trodelvy。我对第一季度偿还的1.3 B美元感到鼓舞，净债务与EBITDA比率为1.7倍，远低于我希望看到的3.0倍水平。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GILD在过去12个月中产生了$8.7 B的杠杆自由现金流（支付利息后）。股息后，剩余现金流为$5.2 B，用于偿还债务。因此，假设GILD可以在短短4.5年后将其净债务余额减少至0美元，前提是它至少保持相同的自由现金流水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Valuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.</p><p><blockquote>就估值而言，我认为GILD目前66.48美元的价格很有吸引力，远期市盈率仅为9.4。按照这个估值，GILD本质上是为未来没有增长而定价的，但我认为事实并非如此。虽然分析师预计明年盈利将出现中个位数下降，但盈利能力预计将在2023-2024年期间回升，每股收益年增长率为5-14%。根据2024年分析师的预测，这使得GILD的远期市盈率仅为8.4。分析师一致给予GILD买入评级，目标价为75美元，晨星将GILD评级为4星买入，目标价为80美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90b3fd475450d2edeff9cc9cd8a15c7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:</p><p><blockquote>当然，任何投资都不是没有风险的，以下几点值得考虑：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Like all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.</li> <li>There’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.</li> <li>Price competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.</li> <li>Investors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.</li> </ul> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与所有制药公司一样，GILD也必须应对专利悬崖。这包括其艾滋病毒药物的专利今年到期。因此，GILD需要将其HIV患者转化为Biktarvy等更新的产品。</li><li>不能保证新药和正在研发的药物会达到他们的期望。</li><li>来自同行的价格竞争可能会给PBM（药房福利经理）更多的杠杆来与GILD积极谈判。</li><li>投资者应始终保持适当的风险上限和多元化。</li></ul><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> Gilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学是一只战场制药股，无论从哪方面来看，它似乎都很便宜。尽管人们对专利悬崖存在一些合理的担忧，但GILD仍然是一家盈利稳定的企业，拥有强劲的利润率和自由现金流，并且拥有充满希望的管道。与此同时，GILD支付4.3%的股息收益率，派息率较低。</blockquote></p><p> This leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.</p><p><blockquote>这为管理层在第一季度执行的股票回购和债务偿还留下了充足的空间。按照目前的估值，GILD的定价是未来没有增长，但我认为情况并非如此。因此，我认为GILD对于长期收入和增长来说是一个有吸引力的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433059-3-reasons-gilead-sciences-is-cash-cow-you-can-buy-today\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433059-3-reasons-gilead-sciences-is-cash-cow-you-can-buy-today","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168122427","content_text":"Summary\n\nGilead Sciences is a solidly profitable enterprise with high margins and strong free cash flow.\nWhile it does have patent cliffs to deal with, the promising pipeline could make up for that.\nGILD appears to be cheaply valued. I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, and other points worth considering.\n\nPhoto by Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images\nSome investors may shy away from battleground stocks for various reasons. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that there are two sides to every coin, and where some investors see risk, others see opportunity. This brings me to Gilead Sciences (GILD) which appears to be one such stock.\nIn this article, I highlight the positives and negatives around the stock, and examine what makes it a buy at present for dividends and growth, so let’s get started.\nWhat Makes Gilead A Buy\nGilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company that’s been around for more than three decades, and operates in more than 35 countries worldwide. It’s best known for producing medicines that treat life-threatening diseases, including HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. In the trailing 12 months, Gilead generated $25.6B in total revenue.\nOne of the reasons for why I’m bullish around GILD is that the enterprise remains a cash cow, as supported by its high margins. Over the past decade, GILD’s operating margin has stayed above the 40% mark for virtually the entire time. This speaks to the mission-critical nature of its treatments and the pricing power that GILD has held over this time period. As seen below, GILD’s op margin sits above that of its U.S. peers Merck (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).\n(Source: YCharts)\nSecondly, at the same time, GILD currently sports one of the highest dividend yields in the pharmaceutical sector. At the forward yield of 4.3%, GILD’s dividend sits only below that of ABBV’s 4.7% yield in the aforementioned peer group. It also comes with plenty of safety and growth, as it has a payout ratio of 40%, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.4%. The low payout ratio leaves GILD with plenty of financial flexibility for repayment of debt and share buybacks, and this includes $1.3B of debt repayments and $309M of share repurchases during Q1’21.\nAs seen below, GILD’s dividend yield is now nearly at the highest level over the past 10 years, as a result of both relative undervaluation and robust dividend growth over this time frame. Note: the following chart shows the dividend yield based on the trailing 12 months’ dividends.\n(Source: YCharts)\nThirdly, GILD has a promising pipeline in the novel cancer drug, Trodelvy, with new indications. This includes applications for breast cancer, bladder cancer, and advanced urothelial cancer, which was recently grantedaccelerated approvalby the FDA in April. Trodelvy has the potential to become the next blockbuster drug for GILD, as Morningstar estimates it to generate probability-weighted sales of $5B annually by 2030. This is rather significant, as it represents 20% of GILD’s current annual run rate revenue.\nMeanwhile, GILD continues to post strong results, while other big pharma companies have seen declines. This is reflected by a strong Q1’21, during which GILD’s revenue increased by16%YoY to $6.4B, driven by Veklury (also known as Remdesivir, the anti-viral treatment for COVID-19), and Yescarta & Tecartus, which are cancer treatments that came from the Kite Pharma acquisition. I’m also encouraged by adjusted EPS improving by 24% YoY driven by operating efficiencies and a lower tax rate.\nBalance Sheet and Valuation\nTurning to the balance sheet, GILD’s net debt balance has increased in recent years as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy. This includes the acquisition of Galapagos in 2019 for nearly $4B, and the acquisition of Immunomedics last year for $21B, which brought in the drug, Trodelvy. I’m encouraged by the $1.3B of debt repayments made during the first quarter, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x sits well below the 3.0x level that I prefer to see.\nPlus, GILD generated levered free cash flow (after interest payments) of $8.7B over the trailing 12 months. After dividends, this leaves $5.2B in remaining cash flow to repay debt. As such, GILD could hypothetically reduce its net debt balance to $0 after just 4.5 years, should it maintain at least the same level of FCF.\nValuation-wise, I find GILD to be attractive at the current price of $66.48, with a forward PE of just 9.4. At this valuation, GILD is essentially being priced for a no growth future, which I don’t believe to be the case. While analysts expect a mid single-digit decline in earnings next year, bottom-line profitability is expected to pick up in the 2023-2024 timeframe, with 5-14% annual EPS growth. This brings GILD’s forward PE to just 8.4 based on 2024 analyst estimates. Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on GILD, with a $75 price target, and Morningstar rates GILD as a 4-Star Buy, with an $80 target.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nOf course, no investment is risk-free, and the following points are worth considering:\n\nLike all pharmaceutical companies, GILD has to deal with patent cliffs. This includes patent expirations on its HIV drugs this year. As such, GILD will need to convert its HIV patients to newer products like Biktarvy.\nThere’s no guarantee that newer drugs and ones in the pipeline will live up to their expectations.\nPrice competition from peers may give PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) more leverage to negotiate aggressively with GILD.\nInvestors should always maintain appropriate risk caps and diversification.\n\nInvestor Takeaway\nGilead Sciences is a battleground pharmaceutical stock that appears to be cheap by all measures. While there are some legitimate concerns around patent cliffs, GILD remains a solidly profitable enterprise with strong margins and free cash flow, and has a promising pipeline. Meanwhile, GILD pays a well-covered 4.3% dividend yield with a low payout ratio.\nThis leaves plenty of room for share repurchases and debt paydown, which management executed on during the first quarter. At the current valuation, GILD is priced for a no-growth future, which I do not believe to be the case. As such, I view GILD as being an attractive buy for long-term income and growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116649293"}
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