MinLee
2021-06-04
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When Will Amazon Stock Finally Reach $2 Trillion<blockquote>亚马逊股票何时最终达到 2 万亿美元</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":116419931,"tweetId":"116419931","gmtCreate":1622815030223,"gmtModify":1634097729795,"author":{"id":3574943172077831,"idStr":"3574943172077831","authorId":3574943172077831,"authorIdStr":"3574943172077831","name":"MinLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8e65b4867fb510a33338f7ebccddab7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment :)</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment :)</p></body></html>","text":"Like and comment :)","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116419931","repostId":1178661753,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178661753","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622814480,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178661753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Amazon Stock Finally Reach $2 Trillion<blockquote>亚马逊股票何时最终达到 2 万亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178661753","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Amazon stock is the third most valuable in the US market. How long will it take shares to climb abou","content":"<p>Amazon stock is the third most valuable in the US market. How long will it take shares to climb about 25% and reach the $2 trillion market cap milestone, joining Apple in the select trillion-dollar club?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票是美国市场第三有价值的股票。股价需要多长时间才能攀升约 25% 并达到 2 万亿美元市值里程碑，与苹果一起跻身精选万亿美元俱乐部？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon stock has not gone anywhere in over half a year. Since reaching an all-time high in September 2020, shares have declined about 9%, now trading much closer to correction territory than to the stock’s historical peak value of $1.8 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票已经半年多没有上涨了。自 2020 年 9 月创下历史新高以来，该股已下跌约 9%，目前的交易价格比该股 1.8 万亿美元的历史峰值更接近回调区。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Amazon stock’s lack of firepower has been inconsistent with the company’s outstanding performance throughout this pandemic period. If Marty McFly or Dr. Brown from Back To The Futurehad shown me Amazon’s fourth quarter 2020 and first quarter 2021 financial results six months ago, I would have bet that the company’s equity would be worth north of $2 trillion by now.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，亚马逊股票缺乏火力与该公司在整个大流行病期间的出色表现并不一致。如果《回到未来》中的马蒂-麦克弗莱（Marty McFly）或布朗博士（Dr. Brown）在六个月前给我看亚马逊 2020 年第四季度和 2021 年第一季度的财务业绩，我会打赌该公司的股票价值现在将超过 2 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, I would have been wrong. I explain why below.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我错了。我在下面解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aa9a3c7d62d3545e4552311ce166300\" tg-width=\"1180\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Amazon fulfilment center.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：亚马逊运营中心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What has gone wrong?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>出了什么问题？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me be clear: it would be unfair to say that Amazon stock has not been a winner lately. Sure, shares have been stuck in the mud for seven months. But the chart below shows how far and how fast the company’s equity value has climbed recently: from $350 billion five years ago to $1.6 trillion now.</p><p><blockquote>让我明确一点：说亚马逊股票最近没有成为赢家是不公平的。当然，股票已经陷入泥潭七个月了。但下图显示了该公司的股权价值最近攀升的程度和速度：从五年前的 3500 亿美元攀升到现在的 1.6 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The malaise of September 2020 to today can be probably blamed, first and foremost, on the stock’s impressive run of March through September of last year. The market seems to have anticipated Amazon’s strong performance during and even after the year of the stay-at-home economy.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 9 月至今的低迷可能首先归咎于该股去年 3 月至 9 月的出色表现。市场似乎已经预料到亚马逊在宅经济年甚至之后的强劲表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb13c878a85e34b597c6bc19e279d348\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"448\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN market cap chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AMZN 市值图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, as the US economy slowly reopens, a few things have started to happen – none of which is particularly good news for Amazon and its stock:</p><p><blockquote>现在，随着美国经济慢慢重新开放，一些事情开始发生——这些事情对亚马逊及其股票来说都不是特别好的消息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The market has fully embraced what is known as the “cyclical rotation”: preference for growth stocks that can perform better in different macroeconomic environments has shifted to sectors that tend to outperform primarily during periods of economic recovery (banks, energy, travel and leisure, small cap, etc.).</li> <li>Some experts have started to doubt that Big Tech companies will perform as well in the next few years, now that consumers are expected to spend less money inside their homes (online shopping, video streaming, etc.) than they did in 2020.</li> <li>Inflation fears have been mounting and culminated in expectations for a multi-decade high of 2.7% between now and 2026. While Amazon’s financial results might not be particularly at risk from higher consumer prices (revenues could even benefit from it), the perceived value of a growth stock in the face of higher inflation and yields tends to decrease.</li> </ul> <b>Amazon and the road to $2 trillion</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场已经完全接受了所谓的“周期性轮动”：对在不同宏观经济环境中表现更好的成长型股票的偏好已经转向了主要在经济复苏时期表现优异的行业（银行、能源、旅游休闲、小盘股等）。</li><li>一些专家开始怀疑大型科技公司在未来几年的表现是否会如此出色，因为预计消费者在家中的支出（网上购物、视频流等）将会减少。）比他们在2020年所做的。</li><li>对通胀的担忧一直在加剧，并最终导致人们预期从现在到 2026 年将达到 2.7% 的数十年高点。虽然亚马逊的财务业绩可能不会受到消费者价格上涨的特别风险（收入甚至可能从中受益），但面对较高的通胀和收益率，成长型股票的感知价值往往会下降。</li></ul><b>亚马逊和通往 2 万亿美元的道路</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: when will Amazon stock finally reach $2 trillion? Clearly, this is not an easy question to answer, because the future is uncertain. But the Amazon Maven proposes the following model that investors can use to think about the timeline:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：亚马逊股票何时最终达到2万亿美元？显然，这不是一个容易回答的问题，因为未来是不确定的。但 Amazon Maven 提出了以下模型，投资者可以使用这些模型来思考时间表：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>From a <b>business fundamentals</b> perspective, Amazon stock can reach the $2 trillion market cap if or once growth expectations materialize. For example, consider the math: AMZN currently trades at a 2021 forward price-earnings ratio of 58 times. Without any compression to valuation multiples, Amazon would be worth $2 trillion once annual EPS reached $70. Analysts currently expect the company to deliver earnings at these levels as early as 2022. Therefore, Amazon could very well reach the market cap milestone <b>this time next year</b>.</li> <li>From a <b>valuation</b> perspective, Amazon stock would be worth $2 trillion if its forward P/E merely expanded from 58 to 73 times. One or a combination of the following would probably need to happen: (1) an increase in long-term earnings and/or cash flow growth expectations; (2) a drop in interest (i.e. discount) rates; (3) a market-wide rally that is fueled by increased investor optimism. To be honest, I think that valuation expansion is the least likely path to $2 trillion.</li> <li>From a <b>chart analysis</b> perspective, Amazon stock could get to $2 trillion if share price breaks through this $1.7-to-$1.8 trillion market cap resistance. The stock has been range-bound for several months. Investors would probably feel more comfortable investing in AMZN once they saw momentum develop once again.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从一个<b>业务基本面</b>从长远来看，如果增长预期成为现实，亚马逊股票的市值可能会达到 2 万亿美元。例如，考虑数学：AMZN 目前的 2021 年远期市盈率为 58 倍。如果不压缩估值倍数，一旦年每股收益达到 70 美元，亚马逊的价值将达到 2 万亿美元。分析师目前预计该公司最早将在 2022 年实现这些水平的盈利。因此，亚马逊很可能达到市值里程碑<b>明年这个时候</b>.</li><li>从一个<b>估值</b>从长远来看，如果亚马逊的远期市盈率仅从 58 倍扩大到 73 倍，其股票将价值 2 万亿美元。可能需要发生以下一种或多种情况：（1）长期收益和/或现金流增长预期增加；（2）利率（即贴现）下降；（3）投资者乐观情绪增强推动了全市场反弹。说实话，我认为估值扩张是最不可能达到2万亿美元的路径。</li><li>从一个<b>图表分析</b>从长远来看，如果股价突破 1.7 至 1.8 万亿美元的市值阻力，亚马逊股价可能会达到 2 万亿美元。该股几个月来一直在区间内波动。一旦投资者看到亚马逊的势头再次发展，他们可能会对投资亚马逊感到更放心。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Amazon Stock Finally Reach $2 Trillion<blockquote>亚马逊股票何时最终达到 2 万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Amazon Stock Finally Reach $2 Trillion<blockquote>亚马逊股票何时最终达到 2 万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 21:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon stock is the third most valuable in the US market. How long will it take shares to climb about 25% and reach the $2 trillion market cap milestone, joining Apple in the select trillion-dollar club?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票是美国市场第三有价值的股票。股价需要多长时间才能攀升约 25% 并达到 2 万亿美元市值里程碑，与苹果一起跻身精选万亿美元俱乐部？</blockquote></p><p> Amazon stock has not gone anywhere in over half a year. Since reaching an all-time high in September 2020, shares have declined about 9%, now trading much closer to correction territory than to the stock’s historical peak value of $1.8 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票已经半年多没有上涨了。自 2020 年 9 月创下历史新高以来，该股已下跌约 9%，目前的交易价格比该股 1.8 万亿美元的历史峰值更接近回调区。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Amazon stock’s lack of firepower has been inconsistent with the company’s outstanding performance throughout this pandemic period. If Marty McFly or Dr. Brown from Back To The Futurehad shown me Amazon’s fourth quarter 2020 and first quarter 2021 financial results six months ago, I would have bet that the company’s equity would be worth north of $2 trillion by now.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，亚马逊股票缺乏火力与该公司在整个大流行病期间的出色表现并不一致。如果《回到未来》中的马蒂-麦克弗莱（Marty McFly）或布朗博士（Dr. Brown）在六个月前给我看亚马逊 2020 年第四季度和 2021 年第一季度的财务业绩，我会打赌该公司的股票价值现在将超过 2 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, I would have been wrong. I explain why below.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我错了。我在下面解释原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aa9a3c7d62d3545e4552311ce166300\" tg-width=\"1180\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Amazon fulfilment center.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：亚马逊运营中心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What has gone wrong?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>出了什么问题？</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me be clear: it would be unfair to say that Amazon stock has not been a winner lately. Sure, shares have been stuck in the mud for seven months. But the chart below shows how far and how fast the company’s equity value has climbed recently: from $350 billion five years ago to $1.6 trillion now.</p><p><blockquote>让我明确一点：说亚马逊股票最近没有成为赢家是不公平的。当然，股票已经陷入泥潭七个月了。但下图显示了该公司的股权价值最近攀升的程度和速度：从五年前的 3500 亿美元攀升到现在的 1.6 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The malaise of September 2020 to today can be probably blamed, first and foremost, on the stock’s impressive run of March through September of last year. The market seems to have anticipated Amazon’s strong performance during and even after the year of the stay-at-home economy.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 9 月至今的低迷可能首先归咎于该股去年 3 月至 9 月的出色表现。市场似乎已经预料到亚马逊在宅经济年甚至之后的强劲表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb13c878a85e34b597c6bc19e279d348\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"448\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN market cap chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AMZN 市值图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, as the US economy slowly reopens, a few things have started to happen – none of which is particularly good news for Amazon and its stock:</p><p><blockquote>现在，随着美国经济慢慢重新开放，一些事情开始发生——这些事情对亚马逊及其股票来说都不是特别好的消息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The market has fully embraced what is known as the “cyclical rotation”: preference for growth stocks that can perform better in different macroeconomic environments has shifted to sectors that tend to outperform primarily during periods of economic recovery (banks, energy, travel and leisure, small cap, etc.).</li> <li>Some experts have started to doubt that Big Tech companies will perform as well in the next few years, now that consumers are expected to spend less money inside their homes (online shopping, video streaming, etc.) than they did in 2020.</li> <li>Inflation fears have been mounting and culminated in expectations for a multi-decade high of 2.7% between now and 2026. While Amazon’s financial results might not be particularly at risk from higher consumer prices (revenues could even benefit from it), the perceived value of a growth stock in the face of higher inflation and yields tends to decrease.</li> </ul> <b>Amazon and the road to $2 trillion</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场已经完全接受了所谓的“周期性轮动”：对在不同宏观经济环境中表现更好的成长型股票的偏好已经转向了主要在经济复苏时期表现优异的行业（银行、能源、旅游休闲、小盘股等）。</li><li>一些专家开始怀疑大型科技公司在未来几年的表现是否会如此出色，因为预计消费者在家中的支出（网上购物、视频流等）将会减少。）比他们在2020年所做的。</li><li>对通胀的担忧一直在加剧，并最终导致人们预期从现在到 2026 年将达到 2.7% 的数十年高点。虽然亚马逊的财务业绩可能不会受到消费者价格上涨的特别风险（收入甚至可能从中受益），但面对较高的通胀和收益率，成长型股票的感知价值往往会下降。</li></ul><b>亚马逊和通往 2 万亿美元的道路</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: when will Amazon stock finally reach $2 trillion? Clearly, this is not an easy question to answer, because the future is uncertain. But the Amazon Maven proposes the following model that investors can use to think about the timeline:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：亚马逊股票何时最终达到2万亿美元？显然，这不是一个容易回答的问题，因为未来是不确定的。但 Amazon Maven 提出了以下模型，投资者可以使用这些模型来思考时间表：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>From a <b>business fundamentals</b> perspective, Amazon stock can reach the $2 trillion market cap if or once growth expectations materialize. For example, consider the math: AMZN currently trades at a 2021 forward price-earnings ratio of 58 times. Without any compression to valuation multiples, Amazon would be worth $2 trillion once annual EPS reached $70. Analysts currently expect the company to deliver earnings at these levels as early as 2022. Therefore, Amazon could very well reach the market cap milestone <b>this time next year</b>.</li> <li>From a <b>valuation</b> perspective, Amazon stock would be worth $2 trillion if its forward P/E merely expanded from 58 to 73 times. One or a combination of the following would probably need to happen: (1) an increase in long-term earnings and/or cash flow growth expectations; (2) a drop in interest (i.e. discount) rates; (3) a market-wide rally that is fueled by increased investor optimism. To be honest, I think that valuation expansion is the least likely path to $2 trillion.</li> <li>From a <b>chart analysis</b> perspective, Amazon stock could get to $2 trillion if share price breaks through this $1.7-to-$1.8 trillion market cap resistance. The stock has been range-bound for several months. Investors would probably feel more comfortable investing in AMZN once they saw momentum develop once again.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从一个<b>业务基本面</b>从长远来看，如果增长预期成为现实，亚马逊股票的市值可能会达到 2 万亿美元。例如，考虑数学：AMZN 目前的 2021 年远期市盈率为 58 倍。如果不压缩估值倍数，一旦年每股收益达到 70 美元，亚马逊的价值将达到 2 万亿美元。分析师目前预计该公司最早将在 2022 年实现这些水平的盈利。因此，亚马逊很可能达到市值里程碑<b>明年这个时候</b>.</li><li>从一个<b>估值</b>从长远来看，如果亚马逊的远期市盈率仅从 58 倍扩大到 73 倍，其股票将价值 2 万亿美元。可能需要发生以下一种或多种情况：（1）长期收益和/或现金流增长预期增加；（2）利率（即贴现）下降；（3）投资者乐观情绪增强推动了全市场反弹。说实话，我认为估值扩张是最不可能达到2万亿美元的路径。</li><li>从一个<b>图表分析</b>从长远来看，如果股价突破 1.7 至 1.8 万亿美元的市值阻力，亚马逊股价可能会达到 2 万亿美元。该股几个月来一直在区间内波动。一旦投资者看到亚马逊的势头再次发展，他们可能会对投资亚马逊感到更放心。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-finally-reach-2-trillion\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-finally-reach-2-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178661753","content_text":"Amazon stock is the third most valuable in the US market. How long will it take shares to climb about 25% and reach the $2 trillion market cap milestone, joining Apple in the select trillion-dollar club?\nAmazon stock has not gone anywhere in over half a year. Since reaching an all-time high in September 2020, shares have declined about 9%, now trading much closer to correction territory than to the stock’s historical peak value of $1.8 trillion.\nInterestingly, Amazon stock’s lack of firepower has been inconsistent with the company’s outstanding performance throughout this pandemic period. If Marty McFly or Dr. Brown from Back To The Futurehad shown me Amazon’s fourth quarter 2020 and first quarter 2021 financial results six months ago, I would have bet that the company’s equity would be worth north of $2 trillion by now.\nOf course, I would have been wrong. I explain why below.\nFigure 1: Amazon fulfilment center.\nWhat has gone wrong?\nLet me be clear: it would be unfair to say that Amazon stock has not been a winner lately. Sure, shares have been stuck in the mud for seven months. But the chart below shows how far and how fast the company’s equity value has climbed recently: from $350 billion five years ago to $1.6 trillion now.\nThe malaise of September 2020 to today can be probably blamed, first and foremost, on the stock’s impressive run of March through September of last year. The market seems to have anticipated Amazon’s strong performance during and even after the year of the stay-at-home economy.\nFigure 2: AMZN market cap chart.\nNow, as the US economy slowly reopens, a few things have started to happen – none of which is particularly good news for Amazon and its stock:\n\nThe market has fully embraced what is known as the “cyclical rotation”: preference for growth stocks that can perform better in different macroeconomic environments has shifted to sectors that tend to outperform primarily during periods of economic recovery (banks, energy, travel and leisure, small cap, etc.).\nSome experts have started to doubt that Big Tech companies will perform as well in the next few years, now that consumers are expected to spend less money inside their homes (online shopping, video streaming, etc.) than they did in 2020.\nInflation fears have been mounting and culminated in expectations for a multi-decade high of 2.7% between now and 2026. While Amazon’s financial results might not be particularly at risk from higher consumer prices (revenues could even benefit from it), the perceived value of a growth stock in the face of higher inflation and yields tends to decrease.\n\nAmazon and the road to $2 trillion\nBack to the original question: when will Amazon stock finally reach $2 trillion? Clearly, this is not an easy question to answer, because the future is uncertain. But the Amazon Maven proposes the following model that investors can use to think about the timeline:\n\nFrom a business fundamentals perspective, Amazon stock can reach the $2 trillion market cap if or once growth expectations materialize. For example, consider the math: AMZN currently trades at a 2021 forward price-earnings ratio of 58 times. Without any compression to valuation multiples, Amazon would be worth $2 trillion once annual EPS reached $70. Analysts currently expect the company to deliver earnings at these levels as early as 2022. Therefore, Amazon could very well reach the market cap milestone this time next year.\nFrom a valuation perspective, Amazon stock would be worth $2 trillion if its forward P/E merely expanded from 58 to 73 times. One or a combination of the following would probably need to happen: (1) an increase in long-term earnings and/or cash flow growth expectations; (2) a drop in interest (i.e. discount) rates; (3) a market-wide rally that is fueled by increased investor optimism. To be honest, I think that valuation expansion is the least likely path to $2 trillion.\nFrom a chart analysis perspective, Amazon stock could get to $2 trillion if share price breaks through this $1.7-to-$1.8 trillion market cap resistance. The stock has been range-bound for several months. Investors would probably feel more comfortable investing in AMZN once they saw momentum develop once again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/116419931"}
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