trefree
2021-06-02
成年人不做选择，我都要！
[财迷]
Apple Stock Vs. Google Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>苹果股票与谷歌股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>
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Google Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>苹果股票与谷歌股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152687413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is generally the most owned stock by retail investors at any given time. Google, also","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple is generally the most owned stock by retail investors at any given time. Google, also known as Alphabet, is a favorite of institutional investors.</li> <li>Both companies have made tens of thousands of employees and shareholders multi-millionaires, but going forward, I believe one stock offers better prospects than the other.</li> <li>I compare Apple and Google on valuation, growth prospects, institutional ownership, and volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d1935740482372c9374a4036065586\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by dicus63/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果通常是散户投资者在任何给定时间持有最多的股票。谷歌，也被称为Alphabet，是机构投资者的最爱。</li><li>两家公司都让数万名员工和股东成为千万富翁，但展望未来，我相信一只股票比另一只股票提供了更好的前景。</li><li>我比较了苹果和谷歌的估值、增长前景、机构所有权和波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 dicus63/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are two great American success stories, with each making tens of thousands of shareholders and employees multimillionaires. A 2012 analysis by <i>Reuters</i> ballparked the average Apple corporate employee as having vested over their career about $3.4 million in AAPL before taxes, today with the 10x higher share price but more employees to divide by, I would guess this number would probably be around $10-$20 million before taxes (with senior people obviously having earned more and junior having earned less). Google is known for being even more generous with stock grants. When the company went public, the<i>New York Times</i>reported that stock options made the company masseuse a multi-millionaire, among many other employees. Google and Apple created great wealth, but Microsoft (MSFT) takes the cake for employee millionaires,creating over 10,000 millionaires. As fate would have it, my dad lived in Seattle in the 1980s when Microsoft was in its early days–he turned down a job offer from Microsoft for reasons unknown.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）和谷歌（GOOG）是两个伟大的美国成功故事，每个故事都让成千上万的股东和员工成为千万富翁。2012年分析<i>路透社</i>苹果公司员工的普通员工在其职业生涯中税前拥有约 340 万美元的 AAPL，如今股价上涨了 10 倍，但要除以的员工更多，我猜这个数字可能在 10 万至 2000 万美元税前（老年人显然挣得更多，而年轻人挣得更少）。众所周知，谷歌在股票授予方面更加慷慨。当公司上市时，<i>纽约时报</i>据报道，股票期权使公司按摩师和许多其他员工成为千万富翁。谷歌和苹果创造了巨大的财富，但微软（MSFT）为员工百万富翁分得了蛋糕，创造了超过10,000名百万富翁。命运安排，我父亲在20世纪80年代住在西雅图，当时微软还处于早期——他拒绝了微软的工作邀请，原因不明。</blockquote></p><p> Here in the<i>Seeking Alpha</i>comment section, there are more than a few shareholders who have become multi-millionaires from investing in technology stocks, especially Apple. Since 2004 (when Google went public), both Google and Apple have seen remarkable success, with Apple returning about $240 (including dividends) on a $1 investment as of my writing this, and Google returning $47. Google clearly executed its business plan well, but Apple hit a home run when they launched the best-selling product of all time (iPhone).</p><p><blockquote>在这里<i>寻求阿尔法</i>评论区，通过投资科技股成为千万富翁的股东不在少数，尤其是苹果。自2004年（谷歌上市时）以来，谷歌和苹果都取得了显著的成功，在我写这篇文章时，苹果1美元的投资回报约为240美元（包括股息），而谷歌回报47美元。谷歌显然很好地执行了其商业计划，但当苹果推出有史以来最畅销的产品（iPhone）时，他们击中了本垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68434cfa2b94b754cfa88ed1118e7ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their success didn't happen overnight, however, rather it accumulated over time. This gave savvy investors many chances (and second chances) to buy in and join in the party. Apple, in particular, did not see a linear path to success, the company we know today would barely be recognizable in 1997 (before the graph starts) when Steve Jobs returned to a company at the brink of bankruptcy. Google, on the other hand, executed far more quietly, with less drama, intrigue, and publicity.</p><p><blockquote>然而，他们的成功不是一夜之间发生的，而是随着时间的推移而积累的。这给了精明的投资者很多机会（和第二次机会）买入并加入这个派对。尤其是苹果，没有看到一条直线的成功之路，我们今天所知的这家公司在1997年（图表开始之前）几乎无法辨认，当时乔布斯回到了一家濒临破产的公司。另一方面，谷歌的执行要安静得多，没有那么多戏剧性、阴谋和宣传。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis by looking at valuations for both Apple and Google.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从苹果和谷歌的估值开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation: Apple Vs. Google</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值：苹果与谷歌</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple currently trades for 24x 2021 earnings estimates. For reference, the S&P 500 (SPY) trades for about 21.5x earnings.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的交易价格是 2021 年盈利预期的 24 倍。作为参考，标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的市盈率约为 21.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>For most of the past decade, Apple has traded between 10x and 20x earnings.</li> <li>As recently as 2018, Apple traded for 12-13x earnings.</li> <li>Apple's valuation has risen in large part due to the growth in its services segment, which allows Apple to make money from existing iPhones rather than having to go out and sell tons of new phones every year.</li> <li>Apple probably deserves to trade at a higher valuation than before, but 24x seems a little high to me because their growth in earnings per share has been driven in large part by share buybacks (which require a low valuation to be very effective in the long run), and while overall net income for the company has grown over the last 5 years, it has been a bumpy ride–one that was helped greatly by the cut in the US corporate tax rate in 2017.</li> </ul> Google Class A stock (GOOGL),which is the class you should buy currently trades for 27x its 2021 earnings estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去十年的大部分时间里，苹果的市盈率在 10 倍到 20 倍之间。</li><li>就在 2018 年，苹果的市盈率是 12-13 倍。</li><li>苹果的估值上升在很大程度上是由于其服务部门的增长，这使得苹果能够从现有的iPhone中赚钱，而不必每年出去销售大量的新手机。</li><li>苹果可能应该以比以前更高的估值进行交易，但 24 倍对我来说似乎有点高，因为他们的每股收益增长在很大程度上是由股票回购推动的（从长远来看，这需要低估值才能非常有效），虽然该公司的整体净利润在过去 5 年中有所增长，但这是一段坎坷的旅程——这在 2017 年美国公司税率下调的大大帮助下得到了帮助。</li></ul>谷歌 A 类股票（GOOGL）是您应该购买的类别，目前的交易价格是其 2021 年盈利预期的 27 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Googlehas generally tradedat 20-30x earnings in the past decade.</li> <li>Google is a lot more of a traditional growth stock in the smoothness and growth rate over recent years.</li> <li>Google's P/E ratio has declined over time as the company has grown larger, while Apple's has increased.</li> <li>Google has a higher expected earnings growth rate than Apple does.</li> </ul> <b>Apple Vs. Google Earnings Growth Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去十年中，谷歌的市盈率通常是20-30倍。</li><li>近年来，就平稳性和增长率而言，谷歌更像是一只传统的成长型股票。</li><li>随着公司规模的扩大，谷歌的市盈率随着时间的推移而下降，而苹果的市盈率则有所上升。</li><li>谷歌的预期盈利增长率高于苹果。</li></ul><b>苹果与谷歌盈利增长前景</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's best bet for growth is to sell a ton of iPhones to consumers and then get them paying for services, which they've been successful at doing thus far in the 2020s. Consensus analyst estimates for Apple go out to 2023, and they show growth, but nothing crazy. Estimates have risen greatly since the pandemic lows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果实现增长的最佳选择是向消费者出售大量iPhone，然后让他们为服务付费，到目前为止，他们在2020年代已经成功做到了这一点。分析师对苹果的普遍预测是 2023 年，它们显示出增长，但并不疯狂。自疫情低点以来，估计值已大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a757e1d090a7852ba8eea5d581221c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One irony of Apple's services revenue is that Google is their largest customer, paying somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion dollars per month to be the default search engine on iPhones. Apple essentially collects a royalty on its iPhones from Google, but how Google makes its money is interesting as well, from selling ads. Apple has discussed starting their own search engine, but they would give up the passive money Google gives them, which is pure profit for Apple and around 15-20 percent of its net income, for the entire company. One potential downside risk for both companies is that the US government declares them to be monopolies and breaks them up in one way or another. I view this as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>苹果服务收入的一个讽刺是，谷歌是他们最大的客户，每月支付约10亿美元作为iPhone的默认搜索引擎。苹果基本上从谷歌那里收取iPhone的版税，但谷歌如何通过销售广告赚钱也很有趣。苹果已经讨论过启动他们自己的搜索引擎，但他们将放弃谷歌给他们的被动资金，这是苹果的纯利润，也是整个公司净收入的15-20%左右。这两家公司的一个潜在下行风险是，美国政府宣布它们为垄断企业，并以这样或那样的方式将它们拆分。我认为这是一种微小的可能性，但仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> According to analysts, Google's growth prospects are sunnier, with advertising revenue expected to grow more or less like clockwork over time.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，谷歌的增长前景更加光明，随着时间的推移，广告收入预计将或多或少像发条一样增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b74f5aab048ea890930972845c281d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Google is expected to see healthy growth in revenue and net income, and fundamentally, there are continued tailwinds for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌预计收入和净利润将健康增长，从根本上讲，盈利仍有持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The pandemic helped Google as advertisers found that Google, YouTube, etc. is a more effective way to advertise than traditional outlets like TV.</li> <li>As more people globally get internet access and the global economies grow, Google benefits from a double tailwind.</li> </ul> <b>AAPL Vs. GOOGL: Institutional Ownership and Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫情帮助了谷歌，因为广告商发现谷歌、YouTube等。是比电视等传统渠道更有效的广告方式。</li><li>随着全球越来越多的人接入互联网和全球经济的增长，谷歌受益于双重顺风。</li></ul><b>AAPL 与GOOGL：机构所有权和波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> Back when Robintrack still had data, it generally indicated that Apple was the most widely held stock by retail investors. On<i>Seeking Alpha</i>, Apple has the greatest number of followers of any ticker, so I generally think that Apple is the most commonly held stock by retail investors. Retail investors have strange taste in stocks, besides Apple, they generally love automakers and airlines, as well as whatever is going up the fastest at the moment, be it Dogecoin (DOGE-USD),AMC, or GameStop(NYSE:GME). In the case of Apple, anyone who bought and held would have made a killing. Another factor that kept retail investors out of Google in the past is the high share price. Many of the best-performing stocks in the market have high share prices because they don't split their stock. With fractional shares today, this is far less of an issue.</p><p><blockquote>当 Robintrack 还有数据时，它通常表明苹果是散户投资者持有最广泛的股票。在<i>寻求阿尔法</i>苹果拥有所有股票中最多的关注者，所以我通常认为苹果是散户投资者最常持有的股票。散户投资者对股票的品味很奇怪，除了苹果，他们通常喜欢汽车制造商和航空公司，以及目前上涨最快的任何股票，无论是狗狗币（DOGE-USD）、AMC 还是游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）。就苹果而言，任何购买并持有的人都将犯下谋杀罪。过去让散户投资者远离谷歌的另一个因素是高股价。市场上许多表现最好的股票都有很高的股价，因为它们不分割股票。如今，对于零股来说，这已经不是一个问题了。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors like university endowments and pension funds have their own biases, but overall they tend to invest in the fastest-growing stocks.Popular stocks with institutional investors are perennial favorites like PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), Google, Visa(NYSE:V), and Mastercard(NYSE:MA). Google is one of the most popular stocks among institutional investors, while Apple is one of the most popular stocks with retail investors. I owned Apple stock for a long time, but with the current valuation, I'd honestly like to see it at or below $100 before I'd commit money to it. With Google, the current valuation may look high, but growth in earnings could easily make the purchase price look like a bargain 2-3 years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>大学捐赠基金和养老基金等机构投资者有自己的偏见，但总体而言，他们倾向于投资增长最快的股票。机构投资者的热门股票是PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）、谷歌、Visa（纽约证券交易所股票代码：V）和万事达卡（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）等常年的最爱。谷歌是最受机构投资者欢迎的股票之一，而苹果是最受散户投资者欢迎的股票之一。我持有苹果股票很长时间了，但以目前的估值，老实说，在我投入资金之前，我希望看到它达到或低于 100 美元。对于谷歌来说，目前的估值可能看起来很高，但盈利的增长很容易使 2-3 年后的收购价格看起来很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is more volatile than Google, and this effect has increased in recent years. Apple's worst drawdown in the past decade is about 40 percent, while Google's worst drawdown is about 28 percent. I'd give an advantage to Google here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果比谷歌更不稳定，这种影响近年来有所增加。苹果在过去十年中最严重的回撤幅度约为40%，而谷歌最严重的回撤幅度约为28%。我会给谷歌一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google are both popular tech stocks. Apple is a fan favorite with retail investors, while Google is popular with institutions. Both trade for slightly higher valuations than the S&P 500 as a whole, and Google is slightly more expensive relative to earnings than Apple. The analyst consensus is that Google has better growth prospects than Apple at the moment, and I agree with this. Apple has returned more than Google has since Google became publicly traded in 2004. Apple stock is more volatile than Google and has historically seen more drawdowns and threats to its business.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都是受欢迎的科技股。苹果是散户投资者的最爱，而谷歌则受到机构的欢迎。两家公司的估值都略高于标普500整体，而且相对于收益而言，谷歌的价格也略高于苹果。分析师的共识是谷歌目前比苹果有更好的增长前景，我同意这一点。自谷歌2004年上市以来，苹果的回报超过了谷歌。苹果股票比谷歌波动性更大，历史上其业务遭受过更多的缩水和威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I find Google a buy at current prices and would wait for a pullback to $100 to buy Apple.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为谷歌目前的价格值得买入，并会等待回调至 100 美元再买入苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Vs. Google Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>苹果股票与谷歌股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Vs. Google Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>苹果股票与谷歌股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 17:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple is generally the most owned stock by retail investors at any given time. Google, also known as Alphabet, is a favorite of institutional investors.</li> <li>Both companies have made tens of thousands of employees and shareholders multi-millionaires, but going forward, I believe one stock offers better prospects than the other.</li> <li>I compare Apple and Google on valuation, growth prospects, institutional ownership, and volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d1935740482372c9374a4036065586\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by dicus63/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果通常是散户投资者在任何给定时间持有最多的股票。谷歌，也被称为Alphabet，是机构投资者的最爱。</li><li>两家公司都让数万名员工和股东成为千万富翁，但展望未来，我相信一只股票比另一只股票提供了更好的前景。</li><li>我比较了苹果和谷歌的估值、增长前景、机构所有权和波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 dicus63/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are two great American success stories, with each making tens of thousands of shareholders and employees multimillionaires. A 2012 analysis by <i>Reuters</i> ballparked the average Apple corporate employee as having vested over their career about $3.4 million in AAPL before taxes, today with the 10x higher share price but more employees to divide by, I would guess this number would probably be around $10-$20 million before taxes (with senior people obviously having earned more and junior having earned less). Google is known for being even more generous with stock grants. When the company went public, the<i>New York Times</i>reported that stock options made the company masseuse a multi-millionaire, among many other employees. Google and Apple created great wealth, but Microsoft (MSFT) takes the cake for employee millionaires,creating over 10,000 millionaires. As fate would have it, my dad lived in Seattle in the 1980s when Microsoft was in its early days–he turned down a job offer from Microsoft for reasons unknown.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）和谷歌（GOOG）是两个伟大的美国成功故事，每个故事都让成千上万的股东和员工成为千万富翁。2012年分析<i>路透社</i>苹果公司员工的普通员工在其职业生涯中税前拥有约 340 万美元的 AAPL，如今股价上涨了 10 倍，但要除以的员工更多，我猜这个数字可能在 10 万至 2000 万美元税前（老年人显然挣得更多，而年轻人挣得更少）。众所周知，谷歌在股票授予方面更加慷慨。当公司上市时，<i>纽约时报</i>据报道，股票期权使公司按摩师和许多其他员工成为千万富翁。谷歌和苹果创造了巨大的财富，但微软（MSFT）为员工百万富翁分得了蛋糕，创造了超过10,000名百万富翁。命运安排，我父亲在20世纪80年代住在西雅图，当时微软还处于早期——他拒绝了微软的工作邀请，原因不明。</blockquote></p><p> Here in the<i>Seeking Alpha</i>comment section, there are more than a few shareholders who have become multi-millionaires from investing in technology stocks, especially Apple. Since 2004 (when Google went public), both Google and Apple have seen remarkable success, with Apple returning about $240 (including dividends) on a $1 investment as of my writing this, and Google returning $47. Google clearly executed its business plan well, but Apple hit a home run when they launched the best-selling product of all time (iPhone).</p><p><blockquote>在这里<i>寻求阿尔法</i>评论区，通过投资科技股成为千万富翁的股东不在少数，尤其是苹果。自2004年（谷歌上市时）以来，谷歌和苹果都取得了显著的成功，在我写这篇文章时，苹果1美元的投资回报约为240美元（包括股息），而谷歌回报47美元。谷歌显然很好地执行了其商业计划，但当苹果推出有史以来最畅销的产品（iPhone）时，他们击中了本垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68434cfa2b94b754cfa88ed1118e7ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their success didn't happen overnight, however, rather it accumulated over time. This gave savvy investors many chances (and second chances) to buy in and join in the party. Apple, in particular, did not see a linear path to success, the company we know today would barely be recognizable in 1997 (before the graph starts) when Steve Jobs returned to a company at the brink of bankruptcy. Google, on the other hand, executed far more quietly, with less drama, intrigue, and publicity.</p><p><blockquote>然而，他们的成功不是一夜之间发生的，而是随着时间的推移而积累的。这给了精明的投资者很多机会（和第二次机会）买入并加入这个派对。尤其是苹果，没有看到一条直线的成功之路，我们今天所知的这家公司在1997年（图表开始之前）几乎无法辨认，当时乔布斯回到了一家濒临破产的公司。另一方面，谷歌的执行要安静得多，没有那么多戏剧性、阴谋和宣传。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis by looking at valuations for both Apple and Google.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从苹果和谷歌的估值开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation: Apple Vs. Google</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值：苹果与谷歌</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple currently trades for 24x 2021 earnings estimates. For reference, the S&P 500 (SPY) trades for about 21.5x earnings.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的交易价格是 2021 年盈利预期的 24 倍。作为参考，标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的市盈率约为 21.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>For most of the past decade, Apple has traded between 10x and 20x earnings.</li> <li>As recently as 2018, Apple traded for 12-13x earnings.</li> <li>Apple's valuation has risen in large part due to the growth in its services segment, which allows Apple to make money from existing iPhones rather than having to go out and sell tons of new phones every year.</li> <li>Apple probably deserves to trade at a higher valuation than before, but 24x seems a little high to me because their growth in earnings per share has been driven in large part by share buybacks (which require a low valuation to be very effective in the long run), and while overall net income for the company has grown over the last 5 years, it has been a bumpy ride–one that was helped greatly by the cut in the US corporate tax rate in 2017.</li> </ul> Google Class A stock (GOOGL),which is the class you should buy currently trades for 27x its 2021 earnings estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去十年的大部分时间里，苹果的市盈率在 10 倍到 20 倍之间。</li><li>就在 2018 年，苹果的市盈率是 12-13 倍。</li><li>苹果的估值上升在很大程度上是由于其服务部门的增长，这使得苹果能够从现有的iPhone中赚钱，而不必每年出去销售大量的新手机。</li><li>苹果可能应该以比以前更高的估值进行交易，但 24 倍对我来说似乎有点高，因为他们的每股收益增长在很大程度上是由股票回购推动的（从长远来看，这需要低估值才能非常有效），虽然该公司的整体净利润在过去 5 年中有所增长，但这是一段坎坷的旅程——这在 2017 年美国公司税率下调的大大帮助下得到了帮助。</li></ul>谷歌 A 类股票（GOOGL）是您应该购买的类别，目前的交易价格是其 2021 年盈利预期的 27 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Googlehas generally tradedat 20-30x earnings in the past decade.</li> <li>Google is a lot more of a traditional growth stock in the smoothness and growth rate over recent years.</li> <li>Google's P/E ratio has declined over time as the company has grown larger, while Apple's has increased.</li> <li>Google has a higher expected earnings growth rate than Apple does.</li> </ul> <b>Apple Vs. Google Earnings Growth Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在过去十年中，谷歌的市盈率通常是20-30倍。</li><li>近年来，就平稳性和增长率而言，谷歌更像是一只传统的成长型股票。</li><li>随着公司规模的扩大，谷歌的市盈率随着时间的推移而下降，而苹果的市盈率则有所上升。</li><li>谷歌的预期盈利增长率高于苹果。</li></ul><b>苹果与谷歌盈利增长前景</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's best bet for growth is to sell a ton of iPhones to consumers and then get them paying for services, which they've been successful at doing thus far in the 2020s. Consensus analyst estimates for Apple go out to 2023, and they show growth, but nothing crazy. Estimates have risen greatly since the pandemic lows.</p><p><blockquote>苹果实现增长的最佳选择是向消费者出售大量iPhone，然后让他们为服务付费，到目前为止，他们在2020年代已经成功做到了这一点。分析师对苹果的普遍预测是 2023 年，它们显示出增长，但并不疯狂。自疫情低点以来，估计值已大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a757e1d090a7852ba8eea5d581221c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One irony of Apple's services revenue is that Google is their largest customer, paying somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion dollars per month to be the default search engine on iPhones. Apple essentially collects a royalty on its iPhones from Google, but how Google makes its money is interesting as well, from selling ads. Apple has discussed starting their own search engine, but they would give up the passive money Google gives them, which is pure profit for Apple and around 15-20 percent of its net income, for the entire company. One potential downside risk for both companies is that the US government declares them to be monopolies and breaks them up in one way or another. I view this as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>苹果服务收入的一个讽刺是，谷歌是他们最大的客户，每月支付约10亿美元作为iPhone的默认搜索引擎。苹果基本上从谷歌那里收取iPhone的版税，但谷歌如何通过销售广告赚钱也很有趣。苹果已经讨论过启动他们自己的搜索引擎，但他们将放弃谷歌给他们的被动资金，这是苹果的纯利润，也是整个公司净收入的15-20%左右。这两家公司的一个潜在下行风险是，美国政府宣布它们为垄断企业，并以这样或那样的方式将它们拆分。我认为这是一种微小的可能性，但仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> According to analysts, Google's growth prospects are sunnier, with advertising revenue expected to grow more or less like clockwork over time.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，谷歌的增长前景更加光明，随着时间的推移，广告收入预计将或多或少像发条一样增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b74f5aab048ea890930972845c281d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Google is expected to see healthy growth in revenue and net income, and fundamentally, there are continued tailwinds for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌预计收入和净利润将健康增长，从根本上讲，盈利仍有持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The pandemic helped Google as advertisers found that Google, YouTube, etc. is a more effective way to advertise than traditional outlets like TV.</li> <li>As more people globally get internet access and the global economies grow, Google benefits from a double tailwind.</li> </ul> <b>AAPL Vs. GOOGL: Institutional Ownership and Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>疫情帮助了谷歌，因为广告商发现谷歌、YouTube等。是比电视等传统渠道更有效的广告方式。</li><li>随着全球越来越多的人接入互联网和全球经济的增长，谷歌受益于双重顺风。</li></ul><b>AAPL 与GOOGL：机构所有权和波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> Back when Robintrack still had data, it generally indicated that Apple was the most widely held stock by retail investors. On<i>Seeking Alpha</i>, Apple has the greatest number of followers of any ticker, so I generally think that Apple is the most commonly held stock by retail investors. Retail investors have strange taste in stocks, besides Apple, they generally love automakers and airlines, as well as whatever is going up the fastest at the moment, be it Dogecoin (DOGE-USD),AMC, or GameStop(NYSE:GME). In the case of Apple, anyone who bought and held would have made a killing. Another factor that kept retail investors out of Google in the past is the high share price. Many of the best-performing stocks in the market have high share prices because they don't split their stock. With fractional shares today, this is far less of an issue.</p><p><blockquote>当 Robintrack 还有数据时，它通常表明苹果是散户投资者持有最广泛的股票。在<i>寻求阿尔法</i>苹果拥有所有股票中最多的关注者，所以我通常认为苹果是散户投资者最常持有的股票。散户投资者对股票的品味很奇怪，除了苹果，他们通常喜欢汽车制造商和航空公司，以及目前上涨最快的任何股票，无论是狗狗币（DOGE-USD）、AMC 还是游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）。就苹果而言，任何购买并持有的人都将犯下谋杀罪。过去让散户投资者远离谷歌的另一个因素是高股价。市场上许多表现最好的股票都有很高的股价，因为它们不分割股票。如今，对于零股来说，这已经不是一个问题了。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors like university endowments and pension funds have their own biases, but overall they tend to invest in the fastest-growing stocks.Popular stocks with institutional investors are perennial favorites like PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), Google, Visa(NYSE:V), and Mastercard(NYSE:MA). Google is one of the most popular stocks among institutional investors, while Apple is one of the most popular stocks with retail investors. I owned Apple stock for a long time, but with the current valuation, I'd honestly like to see it at or below $100 before I'd commit money to it. With Google, the current valuation may look high, but growth in earnings could easily make the purchase price look like a bargain 2-3 years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>大学捐赠基金和养老基金等机构投资者有自己的偏见，但总体而言，他们倾向于投资增长最快的股票。机构投资者的热门股票是PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）、谷歌、Visa（纽约证券交易所股票代码：V）和万事达卡（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）等常年的最爱。谷歌是最受机构投资者欢迎的股票之一，而苹果是最受散户投资者欢迎的股票之一。我持有苹果股票很长时间了，但以目前的估值，老实说，在我投入资金之前，我希望看到它达到或低于 100 美元。对于谷歌来说，目前的估值可能看起来很高，但盈利的增长很容易使 2-3 年后的收购价格看起来很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is more volatile than Google, and this effect has increased in recent years. Apple's worst drawdown in the past decade is about 40 percent, while Google's worst drawdown is about 28 percent. I'd give an advantage to Google here.</p><p><blockquote>苹果比谷歌更不稳定，这种影响近年来有所增加。苹果在过去十年中最严重的回撤幅度约为40%，而谷歌最严重的回撤幅度约为28%。我会给谷歌一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google are both popular tech stocks. Apple is a fan favorite with retail investors, while Google is popular with institutions. Both trade for slightly higher valuations than the S&P 500 as a whole, and Google is slightly more expensive relative to earnings than Apple. The analyst consensus is that Google has better growth prospects than Apple at the moment, and I agree with this. Apple has returned more than Google has since Google became publicly traded in 2004. Apple stock is more volatile than Google and has historically seen more drawdowns and threats to its business.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都是受欢迎的科技股。苹果是散户投资者的最爱，而谷歌则受到机构的欢迎。两家公司的估值都略高于标普500整体，而且相对于收益而言，谷歌的价格也略高于苹果。分析师的共识是谷歌目前比苹果有更好的增长前景，我同意这一点。自谷歌2004年上市以来，苹果的回报超过了谷歌。苹果股票比谷歌波动性更大，历史上其业务遭受过更多的缩水和威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I find Google a buy at current prices and would wait for a pullback to $100 to buy Apple.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为谷歌目前的价格值得买入，并会等待回调至 100 美元再买入苹果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432451-google-stock-vs-apple-stock-better-buy\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432451-google-stock-vs-apple-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152687413","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is generally the most owned stock by retail investors at any given time. Google, also known as Alphabet, is a favorite of institutional investors.\nBoth companies have made tens of thousands of employees and shareholders multi-millionaires, but going forward, I believe one stock offers better prospects than the other.\nI compare Apple and Google on valuation, growth prospects, institutional ownership, and volatility.\n\nPhoto by dicus63/iStock via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) are two great American success stories, with each making tens of thousands of shareholders and employees multimillionaires. A 2012 analysis by Reuters ballparked the average Apple corporate employee as having vested over their career about $3.4 million in AAPL before taxes, today with the 10x higher share price but more employees to divide by, I would guess this number would probably be around $10-$20 million before taxes (with senior people obviously having earned more and junior having earned less). Google is known for being even more generous with stock grants. When the company went public, theNew York Timesreported that stock options made the company masseuse a multi-millionaire, among many other employees. Google and Apple created great wealth, but Microsoft (MSFT) takes the cake for employee millionaires,creating over 10,000 millionaires. As fate would have it, my dad lived in Seattle in the 1980s when Microsoft was in its early days–he turned down a job offer from Microsoft for reasons unknown.\nHere in theSeeking Alphacomment section, there are more than a few shareholders who have become multi-millionaires from investing in technology stocks, especially Apple. Since 2004 (when Google went public), both Google and Apple have seen remarkable success, with Apple returning about $240 (including dividends) on a $1 investment as of my writing this, and Google returning $47. Google clearly executed its business plan well, but Apple hit a home run when they launched the best-selling product of all time (iPhone).\nData by YCharts\nTheir success didn't happen overnight, however, rather it accumulated over time. This gave savvy investors many chances (and second chances) to buy in and join in the party. Apple, in particular, did not see a linear path to success, the company we know today would barely be recognizable in 1997 (before the graph starts) when Steve Jobs returned to a company at the brink of bankruptcy. Google, on the other hand, executed far more quietly, with less drama, intrigue, and publicity.\nLet's start our analysis by looking at valuations for both Apple and Google.\nValuation: Apple Vs. Google\nApple currently trades for 24x 2021 earnings estimates. For reference, the S&P 500 (SPY) trades for about 21.5x earnings.\n\nFor most of the past decade, Apple has traded between 10x and 20x earnings.\nAs recently as 2018, Apple traded for 12-13x earnings.\nApple's valuation has risen in large part due to the growth in its services segment, which allows Apple to make money from existing iPhones rather than having to go out and sell tons of new phones every year.\nApple probably deserves to trade at a higher valuation than before, but 24x seems a little high to me because their growth in earnings per share has been driven in large part by share buybacks (which require a low valuation to be very effective in the long run), and while overall net income for the company has grown over the last 5 years, it has been a bumpy ride–one that was helped greatly by the cut in the US corporate tax rate in 2017.\n\nGoogle Class A stock (GOOGL),which is the class you should buy currently trades for 27x its 2021 earnings estimates.\n\nGooglehas generally tradedat 20-30x earnings in the past decade.\nGoogle is a lot more of a traditional growth stock in the smoothness and growth rate over recent years.\nGoogle's P/E ratio has declined over time as the company has grown larger, while Apple's has increased.\nGoogle has a higher expected earnings growth rate than Apple does.\n\nApple Vs. Google Earnings Growth Prospects\nApple's best bet for growth is to sell a ton of iPhones to consumers and then get them paying for services, which they've been successful at doing thus far in the 2020s. Consensus analyst estimates for Apple go out to 2023, and they show growth, but nothing crazy. Estimates have risen greatly since the pandemic lows.\nData by YCharts\nOne irony of Apple's services revenue is that Google is their largest customer, paying somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion dollars per month to be the default search engine on iPhones. Apple essentially collects a royalty on its iPhones from Google, but how Google makes its money is interesting as well, from selling ads. Apple has discussed starting their own search engine, but they would give up the passive money Google gives them, which is pure profit for Apple and around 15-20 percent of its net income, for the entire company. One potential downside risk for both companies is that the US government declares them to be monopolies and breaks them up in one way or another. I view this as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.\nAccording to analysts, Google's growth prospects are sunnier, with advertising revenue expected to grow more or less like clockwork over time.\nData by YCharts\nGoogle is expected to see healthy growth in revenue and net income, and fundamentally, there are continued tailwinds for earnings.\n\nThe pandemic helped Google as advertisers found that Google, YouTube, etc. is a more effective way to advertise than traditional outlets like TV.\nAs more people globally get internet access and the global economies grow, Google benefits from a double tailwind.\n\nAAPL Vs. GOOGL: Institutional Ownership and Volatility\nBack when Robintrack still had data, it generally indicated that Apple was the most widely held stock by retail investors. OnSeeking Alpha, Apple has the greatest number of followers of any ticker, so I generally think that Apple is the most commonly held stock by retail investors. Retail investors have strange taste in stocks, besides Apple, they generally love automakers and airlines, as well as whatever is going up the fastest at the moment, be it Dogecoin (DOGE-USD),AMC, or GameStop(NYSE:GME). In the case of Apple, anyone who bought and held would have made a killing. Another factor that kept retail investors out of Google in the past is the high share price. Many of the best-performing stocks in the market have high share prices because they don't split their stock. With fractional shares today, this is far less of an issue.\nInstitutional investors like university endowments and pension funds have their own biases, but overall they tend to invest in the fastest-growing stocks.Popular stocks with institutional investors are perennial favorites like PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), Google, Visa(NYSE:V), and Mastercard(NYSE:MA). Google is one of the most popular stocks among institutional investors, while Apple is one of the most popular stocks with retail investors. I owned Apple stock for a long time, but with the current valuation, I'd honestly like to see it at or below $100 before I'd commit money to it. With Google, the current valuation may look high, but growth in earnings could easily make the purchase price look like a bargain 2-3 years down the road.\nApple is more volatile than Google, and this effect has increased in recent years. Apple's worst drawdown in the past decade is about 40 percent, while Google's worst drawdown is about 28 percent. I'd give an advantage to Google here.\nConclusion\nApple and Google are both popular tech stocks. Apple is a fan favorite with retail investors, while Google is popular with institutions. Both trade for slightly higher valuations than the S&P 500 as a whole, and Google is slightly more expensive relative to earnings than Apple. The analyst consensus is that Google has better growth prospects than Apple at the moment, and I agree with this. Apple has returned more than Google has since Google became publicly traded in 2004. Apple stock is more volatile than Google and has historically seen more drawdowns and threats to its business.\nOverall, I find Google a buy at current prices and would wait for a pullback to $100 to buy Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2344,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/113580045"}
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