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2021-05-31
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Dow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally<blockquote>道指37,000？如果美国股市出现“平均”夏季反弹，这是可能的</blockquote>
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It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally<blockquote>道指37,000？如果美国股市出现“平均”夏季反弹，这是可能的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141703612","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August\nGETTY IMAGES\nDow 37,000 by th","content":"<p>U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August</p><p><blockquote>美国市场基准6月至8月平均上涨7%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0baa1f773514a29e3ea7e2f7650c56d6\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"833\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Dow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In fact, all it would take is a summer rally of average magnitude.</p><p><blockquote>夏末道指37,000点？这似乎好得令人难以置信，因为离劳动节只有三个月了。事实上，所需要的只是一场平均规模的夏季反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Many on Wall Street are excitedly talking up the potential for a summer rally this year. Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in June, July or August has been 7.34% higher on average than where it stood at the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的许多人都在兴奋地谈论今年夏季反弹的可能性。自1896年创立以来，道琼斯工业平均指数在6月、7月或8月的某个时候平均比5月底高出7.34%。</blockquote></p><p> Before you rush to put new money into the U.S. stock market, you should know that profiting from this potential isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It would not be a good idea, for example, to simply place a market order at the end of May to sell if the Dow rises 7.34% by Labor Day. That’s because 7.34% is an average. In some years the Dow has gained far less. In fact, at times the Dow at no point in June, July or August was higher than where it stood at the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>在您急于向美国股市投入新资金之前，您应该知道从这种潜力中获利并不像看起来那么简单。例如，如果道琼斯指数在劳动节前上涨7.34%，那么简单地在5月底下市价单卖出就不是一个好主意。那是因为7.34%是平均值。在某些年份，道琼斯指数的涨幅要小得多。事实上，道琼斯指数在六月、七月或八月的任何时候都不会高于五月底的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there’s nothing special about the market’s rally potential during the summer. This is illustrated in the chart below, reflecting the Dow’s 125-year history. Each month’s column in the chart represents the Dow’s average gain from the end of that month to its higher close at any point over the subsequent three months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，夏季市场的反弹潜力并没有什么特别之处。下图说明了这一点，反映了道琼斯指数125年的历史。图表中每个月的列代表道琼斯指数从该月结束到随后三个月内任何时间点的较高收盘价的平均涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8adc67c9010c2a767ff19ec543d51ae\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the rally potential for several other months is just as high as for May, if not higher. At the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, there is nothing unusual about the market’s rally potential over the three months from the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，其他几个月的反弹潜力与5月份一样高，如果不是更高的话。在统计学家经常用来确定模式是否真实的95%置信水平下，从5月底开始的三个月内市场的反弹潜力没有什么异常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The origins of the ‘summer rally’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季集会”的起源</b></blockquote></p><p> How, then, did Wall Street ever come to believe that there is a summer rally? Though I’ve never been able to discover a definitive answer, my hunch is that it traces back to around the same time decades ago in which investors began focusing on another seasonal tendency — the “Sell in May and go away” pattern. Since Wall Street doesn’t earn any commission income if traders actually go away for the summer, it would have had a powerful incentive to concoct some narrative that could entice buyers and sellers to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>那么，华尔街是如何相信夏季会出现反弹的呢？尽管我从未能够找到明确的答案，但我的直觉是，这可以追溯到几十年前的同一时间，当时投资者开始关注另一种季节性趋势——“五月卖出然后离开”模式。由于如果交易员真的离开这个夏天，华尔街不会赚取任何佣金收入，因此它会有强大的动机编造一些可以吸引买家和卖家留下来的故事。</blockquote></p><p> A summer rally ingeniously fits the bill. Believing in it doesn’t require denying the sell in May premise — that the stock market is a below-average performer during the summer. All the “summer rally” requires is the belief that the market will rally at some point during the summer. So it has a superficial plausibility, but nothing more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季集会巧妙地符合这一要求。相信这一点并不需要否认五月卖出的前提——股市在夏季的表现低于平均水平。“夏季反弹”所需要的只是相信市场将在夏季的某个时候反弹。所以它有一个表面的合理性，但仅此而已。</blockquote></p><p> My skepticism doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rally this summer. My point instead is that, if it does, it won’t be because of the heat.</p><p><blockquote>我的怀疑并不意味着今年夏天股市不会反弹。相反，我的观点是，如果是的话，也不是因为高温。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally<blockquote>道指37,000？如果美国股市出现“平均”夏季反弹，这是可能的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 37,000? It’s possible if U.S. stocks stage an ‘average’ summer rally<blockquote>道指37,000？如果美国股市出现“平均”夏季反弹，这是可能的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 16:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August</p><p><blockquote>美国市场基准6月至8月平均上涨7%</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0baa1f773514a29e3ea7e2f7650c56d6\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"833\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Dow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In fact, all it would take is a summer rally of average magnitude.</p><p><blockquote>夏末道指37,000点？这似乎好得令人难以置信，因为离劳动节只有三个月了。事实上，所需要的只是一场平均规模的夏季反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Many on Wall Street are excitedly talking up the potential for a summer rally this year. Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in June, July or August has been 7.34% higher on average than where it stood at the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的许多人都在兴奋地谈论今年夏季反弹的可能性。自1896年创立以来，道琼斯工业平均指数在6月、7月或8月的某个时候平均比5月底高出7.34%。</blockquote></p><p> Before you rush to put new money into the U.S. stock market, you should know that profiting from this potential isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It would not be a good idea, for example, to simply place a market order at the end of May to sell if the Dow rises 7.34% by Labor Day. That’s because 7.34% is an average. In some years the Dow has gained far less. In fact, at times the Dow at no point in June, July or August was higher than where it stood at the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>在您急于向美国股市投入新资金之前，您应该知道从这种潜力中获利并不像看起来那么简单。例如，如果道琼斯指数在劳动节前上涨7.34%，那么简单地在5月底下市价单卖出就不是一个好主意。那是因为7.34%是平均值。在某些年份，道琼斯指数的涨幅要小得多。事实上，道琼斯指数在六月、七月或八月的任何时候都不会高于五月底的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there’s nothing special about the market’s rally potential during the summer. This is illustrated in the chart below, reflecting the Dow’s 125-year history. Each month’s column in the chart represents the Dow’s average gain from the end of that month to its higher close at any point over the subsequent three months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，夏季市场的反弹潜力并没有什么特别之处。下图说明了这一点，反映了道琼斯指数125年的历史。图表中每个月的列代表道琼斯指数从该月结束到随后三个月内任何时间点的较高收盘价的平均涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8adc67c9010c2a767ff19ec543d51ae\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the rally potential for several other months is just as high as for May, if not higher. At the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, there is nothing unusual about the market’s rally potential over the three months from the end of May.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，其他几个月的反弹潜力与5月份一样高，如果不是更高的话。在统计学家经常用来确定模式是否真实的95%置信水平下，从5月底开始的三个月内市场的反弹潜力没有什么异常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The origins of the ‘summer rally’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季集会”的起源</b></blockquote></p><p> How, then, did Wall Street ever come to believe that there is a summer rally? Though I’ve never been able to discover a definitive answer, my hunch is that it traces back to around the same time decades ago in which investors began focusing on another seasonal tendency — the “Sell in May and go away” pattern. Since Wall Street doesn’t earn any commission income if traders actually go away for the summer, it would have had a powerful incentive to concoct some narrative that could entice buyers and sellers to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>那么，华尔街是如何相信夏季会出现反弹的呢？尽管我从未能够找到明确的答案，但我的直觉是，这可以追溯到几十年前的同一时间，当时投资者开始关注另一种季节性趋势——“五月卖出然后离开”模式。由于如果交易员真的离开这个夏天，华尔街不会赚取任何佣金收入，因此它会有强大的动机编造一些可以吸引买家和卖家留下来的故事。</blockquote></p><p> A summer rally ingeniously fits the bill. Believing in it doesn’t require denying the sell in May premise — that the stock market is a below-average performer during the summer. All the “summer rally” requires is the belief that the market will rally at some point during the summer. So it has a superficial plausibility, but nothing more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季集会巧妙地符合这一要求。相信这一点并不需要否认五月卖出的前提——股市在夏季的表现低于平均水平。“夏季反弹”所需要的只是相信市场将在夏季的某个时候反弹。所以它有一个表面的合理性，但仅此而已。</blockquote></p><p> My skepticism doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rally this summer. My point instead is that, if it does, it won’t be because of the heat.</p><p><blockquote>我的怀疑并不意味着今年夏天股市不会反弹。相反，我的观点是，如果是的话，也不是因为高温。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-37-000-its-possible-if-u-s-stocks-stage-an-average-summer-rally-11621899736?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-37-000-its-possible-if-u-s-stocks-stage-an-average-summer-rally-11621899736?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141703612","content_text":"U.S. market benchmark has gained 7% on average between June and August\nGETTY IMAGES\nDow 37,000 by the end of the summer? That seems too good to be true, since Labor Day is just three months away. In fact, all it would take is a summer rally of average magnitude.\nMany on Wall Street are excitedly talking up the potential for a summer rally this year. Since its creation in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at some point in June, July or August has been 7.34% higher on average than where it stood at the end of May.\nBefore you rush to put new money into the U.S. stock market, you should know that profiting from this potential isn’t as straightforward as it seems. It would not be a good idea, for example, to simply place a market order at the end of May to sell if the Dow rises 7.34% by Labor Day. That’s because 7.34% is an average. In some years the Dow has gained far less. In fact, at times the Dow at no point in June, July or August was higher than where it stood at the end of May.\nMoreover, there’s nothing special about the market’s rally potential during the summer. This is illustrated in the chart below, reflecting the Dow’s 125-year history. Each month’s column in the chart represents the Dow’s average gain from the end of that month to its higher close at any point over the subsequent three months.\n\nNotice that the rally potential for several other months is just as high as for May, if not higher. At the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is genuine, there is nothing unusual about the market’s rally potential over the three months from the end of May.\nThe origins of the ‘summer rally’\nHow, then, did Wall Street ever come to believe that there is a summer rally? Though I’ve never been able to discover a definitive answer, my hunch is that it traces back to around the same time decades ago in which investors began focusing on another seasonal tendency — the “Sell in May and go away” pattern. Since Wall Street doesn’t earn any commission income if traders actually go away for the summer, it would have had a powerful incentive to concoct some narrative that could entice buyers and sellers to stick around.\nA summer rally ingeniously fits the bill. Believing in it doesn’t require denying the sell in May premise — that the stock market is a below-average performer during the summer. All the “summer rally” requires is the belief that the market will rally at some point during the summer. So it has a superficial plausibility, but nothing more.\nMy skepticism doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rally this summer. My point instead is that, if it does, it won’t be because of the heat.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/110665900"}
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