toonwk
2021-05-31
Oh... I will wait for it.
Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果 iPhone 销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌 30%</blockquote>
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I will wait for it.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110292090","repostId":1135341835,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135341835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622453167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135341835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 17:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果 iPhone 销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌 30%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135341835","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the i","content":"<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年推出的iPhone 12一样，人们的期望很高，需求也会飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括支持5G的新手机上市整整三个月，苹果iPhone销量飙升66%。强劲的需求至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但迫在眉睫的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者可能是iPhone 13）的秋季发布。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，关于下一轮iPhone的传闻并不多，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能会为需求疲软创造条件。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上就是 New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌 20% 至 30%，并将目标价从 135 美元下调至 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>费拉古认为，iPhone 12 确实刺激了一个 “超级周期”，苹果手机的销量增长是自 2014 年 iPhone 6 推出以来最强劲的。但他认为，目前的销量激增正在 “振兴 ”安装基数，并有可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计，随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出普遍会减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的受欢迎程度可能是 “不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu 指出，2022 年 9 月财年 iPhone 销量的华尔街共识评级为 2.34 亿部，比 2021 财年的共识增长了 2%。但他说，这意味着今年秋季的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机--他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低 15%，在 1.8 亿至 2 亿辆之间。他认为该公司 9 月和 12 月季度的预期都将低于华尔街预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌 0.5%，至 124.61 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果 iPhone 销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌 30%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果 iPhone 销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌 30%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 17:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年推出的iPhone 12一样，人们的期望很高，需求也会飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括支持5G的新手机上市整整三个月，苹果iPhone销量飙升66%。强劲的需求至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但迫在眉睫的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者可能是iPhone 13）的秋季发布。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，关于下一轮iPhone的传闻并不多，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能会为需求疲软创造条件。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上就是 New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌 20% 至 30%，并将目标价从 135 美元下调至 90 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>费拉古认为，iPhone 12 确实刺激了一个 “超级周期”，苹果手机的销量增长是自 2014 年 iPhone 6 推出以来最强劲的。但他认为，目前的销量激增正在 “振兴 ”安装基数，并有可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计，随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出普遍会减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的受欢迎程度可能是 “不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu 指出，2022 年 9 月财年 iPhone 销量的华尔街共识评级为 2.34 亿部，比 2021 财年的共识增长了 2%。但他说，这意味着今年秋季的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机--他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低 15%，在 1.8 亿至 2 亿辆之间。他认为该公司 9 月和 12 月季度的预期都将低于华尔街预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌 0.5%，至 124.61 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135341835","content_text":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.\nBut looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.\nThat’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.\nFerragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”\nFerragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. 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