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2021-05-03

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Wall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街的乐观情绪达到金融危机后的高点</blockquote>

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That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.<blockquote>该指数已连续四个月上涨，距离反向卖出信号（60.3%）仅 50 个基点。这是自 2007 年 5 月以来最接近卖出信号的一次，标普500 (SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY) 在未来 12 个月内下跌了 7%。</blockquote>\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"<blockquote>以萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚姆 (Savita Subramaniam) 为首的美国银行策略师在一份报告中写道：“日益乐观的情绪是我们更加谨慎前景的驱动因素，因为我们相信疫苗部署、经济重新开放、刺激措施等在很大程度上已经被定价。”“我们没有在六个月内看到 5% 的回调（平均每年发生 3 次），也没有在 14 个月内经历 10% 的回调（历史上每年一次的现象）。”</blockquote>\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen &gt;3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"<blockquote>“随着市场持续上涨，市场情绪继续攀升：我们卖方指标的同比增幅处于我们数据历史记录的第 85 个百分位，并且超过 1 个标准差，”他们补充道。“自 2020 年 3 月以来，股票配置的增长速度比熊市后通常的增长速度快 3.5 倍以上。”</blockquote>\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"<blockquote>“高估值，加上恶性通胀、利率上升以及企业和消费者税收增加的可能性。但我们看好经济/利润/资本支出增长，这推动了我们对周期性股票的偏好。”</blockquote>While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.<blockquote>虽然处于 13 年来的高点，但该指标在技术上仍处于中立区域，表明未来 12 个月将出现正回报。</blockquote>But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.<blockquote>但该公司预测回报率仅为 6%，远低于金融危机以来 12 个月平均预测 14%。</blockquote>Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.<blockquote>其他情绪指标也处于历史高位。</blockquote>The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).<blockquote>花旗恐慌/兴奋情绪指标从一周前向上修正的 1.17 升至 1.22，接近互联网泡沫期间积极情绪的峰值（兴奋情绪高于 0.38）。</blockquote>But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.<blockquote>但 Cannacord 分析师托尼·德怀尔 (Tony Dwyer) 表示，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔 (Jay Powell) 上周新闻发布会上提出的此类问题可能表明市场情绪出现拐点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ff75f216b53f3a5505519f2c396927\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street bullishness hits post-Financial Crisis high, BofA says<blockquote>美国银行表示，华尔街的乐观情绪达到金融危机后的高点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-05-03 22:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBofA Securities' measure of Wall Street sell-side sentiment is pushing into euphoria territory, at the highest level since the FinancialCrisis.<blockquote>美国银行证券对华尔街卖方情绪的衡量标准正在推进至欣快区域，达到金融危机以来的最高水平。</blockquote>The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks the recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists rose to 59.8% from 59.4%, the highest it's been in 13 years.<blockquote>跟踪卖方策略师推荐股票配置的卖方指标从 59.4% 升至 59.8%，为 13 年来的最高水平。</blockquote>It has risen four month in the row and is just 50 basis points away from a contrarian Sell signal (60.3%). That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.<blockquote>该指数已连续四个月上涨，距离反向卖出信号（60.3%）仅 50 个基点。这是自 2007 年 5 月以来最接近卖出信号的一次，标普500 (SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY) 在未来 12 个月内下跌了 7%。</blockquote>\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"<blockquote>以萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚姆 (Savita Subramaniam) 为首的美国银行策略师在一份报告中写道：“日益乐观的情绪是我们更加谨慎前景的驱动因素，因为我们相信疫苗部署、经济重新开放、刺激措施等在很大程度上已经被定价。”“我们没有在六个月内看到 5% 的回调（平均每年发生 3 次），也没有在 14 个月内经历 10% 的回调（历史上每年一次的现象）。”</blockquote>\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen &gt;3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"<blockquote>“随着市场持续上涨，市场情绪继续攀升：我们卖方指标的同比增幅处于我们数据历史记录的第 85 个百分位，并且超过 1 个标准差，”他们补充道。“自 2020 年 3 月以来，股票配置的增长速度比熊市后通常的增长速度快 3.5 倍以上。”</blockquote>\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"<blockquote>“高估值，加上恶性通胀、利率上升以及企业和消费者税收增加的可能性。但我们看好经济/利润/资本支出增长，这推动了我们对周期性股票的偏好。”</blockquote>While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.<blockquote>虽然处于 13 年来的高点，但该指标在技术上仍处于中立区域，表明未来 12 个月将出现正回报。</blockquote>But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.<blockquote>但该公司预测回报率仅为 6%，远低于金融危机以来 12 个月平均预测 14%。</blockquote>Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.<blockquote>其他情绪指标也处于历史高位。</blockquote>The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).<blockquote>花旗恐慌/兴奋情绪指标从一周前向上修正的 1.17 升至 1.22，接近互联网泡沫期间积极情绪的峰值（兴奋情绪高于 0.38）。</blockquote>But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.<blockquote>但 Cannacord 分析师托尼·德怀尔 (Tony Dwyer) 表示，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔 (Jay Powell) 上周新闻发布会上提出的此类问题可能表明市场情绪出现拐点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ff75f216b53f3a5505519f2c396927\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689170-wall-street-bullishness-hits-post-financial-crisis-high-bofa-says\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689170-wall-street-bullishness-hits-post-financial-crisis-high-bofa-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150516400","content_text":"BofA Securities' measure of Wall Street sell-side sentiment is pushing into euphoria territory, at the highest level since the FinancialCrisis.The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks the recommended equity allocation by sell-side strategists rose to 59.8% from 59.4%, the highest it's been in 13 years.It has risen four month in the row and is just 50 basis points away from a contrarian Sell signal (60.3%). That's the closest it's been to a sell signal since May 2007, with the S&P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)seeing a drop of 7% over the next 12 months.\"Increasingly euphoric sentiment is a driver of our more cautious outlook as we believe that vaccine deployment, economic reopening, stimulus, etc. are largely priced in,\" BofA strategists led by Savita Subramaniam, wrote in a note. \"We have not seen a 5% pullback in six months (they have occurred on average 3x per year) nor have we experienced a 10% correction in 14 months (a once per year phenomenon, historically).\"\"Sentiment continues to climb as market gains continue: the year-over-year rise in our Sell Side Indicator is in the 85th percentile of our data history and above 1 std. deviation,\" they add. \"Since March 2020, equity allocations have risen >3.5x faster than they typically do following bear markets.\"\"Lofty valuations, juxtaposed against the potential for bad inflation, rising rates, and higher taxes on corporates and consumers. But we are bullish on economic/profits/capex growth, driving our preference for cyclical stocks.\"While at a 13-year high, the indicator is still technically in Neutral territory, indicating positive returns over the next 12 months.But it is forecasting returns of just 6%, well below the average 12-month forecast of 14% since the financial crisis.Other sentiment measures are also at historically high levels.The Citi Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure ticked up to 1.22 from an upwardly revised 1.17 the week before, near the peaks of positive sentiment seen during the dot-com bubble (euphoria is anything above 0.38).But Cannacord analyst Tony Dwyer says thatthe type of questions asked at Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's press conference last week may indicate an inflection point on sentiment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/108782090"}