//@爱吃紫色的鱼:_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

//@爱吃紫色的鱼:$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$亿航智能(EH)$$小米集团-W(01810)$幸存者偏差

@粮厂研究员Will：$小米集团-W(01810)$每当股价大涨或大跌时，总会看到一些帖子出来说自己明智地抄底或者逃顶，并侃侃而谈自己是如何判断的。这种现象在逻辑学上叫作“幸存者偏差”（survivor bias），意思是只有抄底（或逃顶）成功的人才会出来发帖，而剩下的绝大多数人只会选择沉默；另外，对同一个投资者，一次成功并不代表每次抄底或逃顶都会成功，一直判断正确的概率是趋近于零的，所以每次出来发帖的人都不同。因此，对于价值投资来说，粮厂研究员从来没有想过抄底或者逃顶，只要小米的核心逻辑没有改变，就一直持有，直到瓜熟蒂落的那一天。

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