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2021-05-07

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Steel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm<blockquote>钢铁价格翻了两倍。现在美国银行敲响了警钟</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":104394336,"tweetId":"104394336","gmtCreate":1620354077625,"gmtModify":1634205823187,"author":{"id":3578993493947857,"idStr":"3578993493947857","authorId":3578993493947857,"authorIdStr":"3578993493947857","name":"Crod","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05f087e82432205a77fc3e93fb3328ba","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","text":"👍🏻","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104394336","repostId":1159582956,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159582956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620353641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159582956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Steel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm<blockquote>钢铁价格翻了两倍。现在美国银行敲响了警钟</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159582956","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN Business)A bubble could be brewing in steel stocks.The pandemic brought the American s","content":"New York (CNN Business)A bubble could be brewing in steel stocks.<blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）钢铁股可能正在酝酿泡沫。</blockquote>The pandemic brought the American steel industry to its knees last spring, forcing manufacturers to shut down production as they struggled to survive the imploding economy. But as the recovery got underway, mills were slow to resume production, and that created a massive steel shortage.Now, thereopening of the economyis driving a steel boom so strong that some are convinced it will end in tears.<blockquote>去年春天，疫情使美国钢铁行业陷入瘫痪，迫使制造商在经济崩溃中挣扎求生时关闭生产。但随着经济复苏的进行，钢厂恢复生产的速度很慢，这造成了严重的钢铁短缺。现在，经济的开放正在推动钢铁繁荣如此强劲，以至于一些人确信它将以泪水告终。</blockquote>The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"PHIL GIBBS, DIRECTOR OF METALS EQUITY RESEARCH AT KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS\"This is going to be short-lived. It's very appropriate to call this a bubble,\" Bank of America analyst Timna Tanners told CNN Business, using the \"b-word\" that equity analysts from major banks typically avoid.<blockquote>调整会非常激烈。这只是何时以及如何发生的问题。”KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS 金属股票研究总监 PHIL GIBBS 表示：“这将是短暂的。将其看涨期权为泡沫是非常合适的，”美国银行分析师蒂姆纳·坦纳斯 (Timna Tanners) 告诉 CNN Business，他使用了主要银行股票分析师通常避免的“b 字”。</blockquote>After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.<blockquote>在去年触底460美元左右后，美国基准热轧卷钢价格目前徘徊在每吨1500美元左右，创下历史新高，几乎是20年平均水平的三倍。</blockquote>Steel stocks are on fire.US Steel(X), whichcrashed to a record low last Marchamid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months.Nucor(NUE)has spiked 76% this year alone.<blockquote>钢铁股正在燃烧。去年 3 月因破产担忧而暴跌至历史新低的美国钢铁公司 (X) 在短短 12 个月内飙升了 200%。纽柯 (NUE) 仅今年就飙升了 76%。</blockquote>While \"scarcity and panic\" are lifting steel prices and stocks today, Tanners predicted a painful reversal as supply catches up with what she described as unimpressive demand.\"<blockquote>虽然“短缺和恐慌”今天正在推高钢铁价格和库存，但坦纳斯预测，随着供应赶上她所说的平淡无奇的需求，情况将出现痛苦的逆转。”</blockquote>We expect this will correct — and often when it corrects, it over-corrects,\" said Tanners, a two-decade veteran of the metals industry who authored a report last week headlined \"Steel stocks in a bubble.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33289af0729f9042e5dcc23e7f56ad7\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"522\">'A bit frothy'<blockquote>我们预计这种情况会得到纠正——而且当它纠正时，往往会过度纠正，”在金属行业工作了二十年的资深人士坦纳斯说，他上周撰写了一份题为《泡沫中的钢铁股》的报告。“有点泡沫”</blockquote>Phil Gibbs, director of metals equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets, agreed that steel prices are at unsustainable levels.<blockquote>KeyBanc Capital Markets 金属股票研究总监菲尔·吉布斯 (Phil Gibbs) 同意钢铁价格处于不可持续的水平。</blockquote>\"This would be like $170-a-barrel oil. At some point, people will say, 'F this, I'm not going to drive, I will take the bus,'\" Gibbs told CNN Business. \"The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"<blockquote>吉布斯告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道：“这相当于每桶 170 美元的石油价格。在某些时候，人们会说，‘既然如此，我就不开车了，我要坐公共汽车。’”“整改力度会非常大，只是时间和方式的问题。”</blockquote>Gibbs said he is \"more confident the steel price is in a bubble,\" rather than that steel stocks themselves are in a bubble.<blockquote>吉布斯表示，他“更有信心钢铁价格处于泡沫中”，而不是钢铁股本身处于泡沫中。</blockquote>The steel bubble buzz is just the latest debate about the sustainability of booming pockets of the market in this era of rock-bottom interest rates. Bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies are on fire. GameStop (GME), AMC (AMC) and their fellow Reddit-fueled stocks skyrocketed earlier this year. And blank-check companies, some backed by celebrities, are raising gobs of money.<blockquote>钢铁泡沫的传闻只是在这个利率触底的时代，关于蓬勃发展的市场的可持续性的最新辩论。比特币、以太币、狗狗币和其他加密货币正在燃烧。游戏驿站 (GME)、AMC (AMC) 及其 Reddit 推动的股票今年早些时候飙升。空白支票公司，其中一些由名人支持，正在筹集大量资金。</blockquote>Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the risk of overspeculation.<blockquote>就连美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认过度投机的风险。</blockquote>\"You are seeing things in capital markets that are a bit frothy,\" Powell said during last week's press conference. \"That's a fact. I won't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but also it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上表示：“你在资本市场上看到的事情有点泡沫。”“这是事实。我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放也有很大关系。”</blockquote>Yet another shortage as the economy reopens<blockquote>随着经济重新开放，又出现短缺</blockquote>Steel is just the latest shortage to hit the US economy as it recovers from a pandemic that scrambled supply chains and set off sharp shifts in demand.<blockquote>钢铁只是美国经济从疫情中复苏的最新一次短缺，疫情扰乱了供应链，引发了需求的急剧变化。</blockquote>Everything from computer chips and lumber to chlorine and tanker truck drivers are in short supply. Manufacturers, restaurants and other businesses are also desperate for workers.<blockquote>从电脑芯片和木材到氯和油罐车司机，一切都供不应求。制造商、餐馆和其他企业也急需工人。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned this week that there isn't enough copper, lithium and other raw earth minerals available to make global clean energy ambitions a reality. The world risks \"running out of copper,\" Bank of America strategists said in a recent note to clients.<blockquote>与此同时，国际能源署本周警告称，没有足够的铜、锂和其他原始地球矿物来实现全球清洁能源的雄心。美国银行策略师在最近给客户的一份报告中表示，世界面临“铜枯竭”的风险。</blockquote>Much like lumber, the steel industry was caught off guard by the rapid recovery in demand that began last summer — especially in the auto industry.<blockquote>就像木材一样，钢铁行业对去年夏天开始的需求快速复苏感到措手不及——尤其是汽车行业。</blockquote>\"All of a sudden people were buying lots of cars,\" said Tanners, the Bank of America analyst.<blockquote>美国银行分析师坦纳斯表示：“突然间，人们开始购买大量汽车。”</blockquote>And it took time for America's aging steel mills to resume the production they had sharply cut at the onset of the pandemic. Steel inventories shrank rapidly and shipments were delayed, just as steel buyers began ordering more than usual.<blockquote>美国老化的钢铁厂花了一段时间才恢复在疫情爆发时大幅削减的产量。钢铁库存迅速萎缩，发货被推迟，而钢铁买家开始比平时订购更多。</blockquote>'Peak' prices?<blockquote>“峰值”价格？</blockquote>The good news, for steel buyers at least, is that analysts say all of the US steel production capacity that was idled during the pandemic has returned.<blockquote>至少对钢铁买家来说，好消息是分析师表示，疫情期间闲置的所有美国钢铁产能都已恢复。</blockquote>That's why Tanners said she's very confident the shortage will soon end, causing steel prices to collapse. History shows that steel stocks \"tend to peak\" a month or so before steel prices, Tanners wrote in her report.<blockquote>这就是为什么坦纳斯表示，她非常有信心短缺很快就会结束，导致钢铁价格暴跌。坦纳斯在报告中写道，历史表明，钢铁库存“往往会在钢铁价格上涨前一个月左右达到顶峰”。</blockquote>She said US Steel in particular is vulnerable to a commodity downturn because it has the most amount of debt and the greatest need to spend to upgrade its plants.<blockquote>她表示，美国钢铁公司尤其容易受到大宗商品低迷的影响，因为它拥有最多的债务，并且最需要支出来升级其工厂。</blockquote>But for now, steel stocks may continue to look attractive to investors because the industry is minting money at the moment. The North American flat steel sector is expected to generate record earnings in 2021, according to Citigroup.<blockquote>但就目前而言，钢铁股可能会继续对投资者具有吸引力，因为该行业目前正在赚钱。花旗集团表示，北美扁钢行业预计将在 2021 年产生创纪录的盈利。</blockquote>\"Current steel prices are peak (or close to it) ... and will correct sharply lower at some point,\" Citi analyst Alexander Hacking wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. \"The current scenario presents investors with the classic peak earnings dilemma.\"<blockquote>花旗分析师亚历山大·哈金 (Alexander Hacking) 周三在给客户的一份报告中写道：“目前的钢铁价格已达到峰值（或接近峰值）……并将在某个时候大幅回调。”“目前的情况给投资者带来了典型的盈利峰值困境。”</blockquote>Hacking warned though that steel stocks can't escape a commodity downturn. \"We can recall exactly zero examples where steel equities have gone up during 25%+ metal price corrections,\" he wrote.<blockquote>不过，黑客警告说，钢铁股无法逃脱大宗商品低迷的影响。“我们可以回忆起在金属价格调整 25% 以上期间钢铁股上涨的例子，”他写道。</blockquote>The fate of Trump's tariffs<blockquote>特朗普关税的命运</blockquote>Of course, those predicting a steel downturn may be underestimating the strength of the global economic recovery. A longer lasting boom could lift steel demand enough to keep prices lofty. Another risk is whether tougher environmental regulations in China will limit steel supply there.<blockquote>当然，那些预测钢铁低迷的人可能低估了全球经济复苏的力度。持续时间更长的繁荣可能会提振钢铁需求，使钢铁价格保持高位。另一个风险是中国更严格的环境法规是否会限制那里的钢铁供应。</blockquote>One big wildcard is the fate of the tariffs on most imported steel the Trump administration imposed in 2018 to boost the domestic industry.<blockquote>一个很大的未知数是特朗普执政在2018年对大多数进口钢铁征收关税以促进国内工业的命运。</blockquote>If the Biden administration rolls back even just some of those tariffs, it would ease supply constraints and weigh on steel prices.<blockquote>如果拜登政府取消哪怕部分关税，也会缓解供应限制并打压钢铁价格。</blockquote>Tanners thinks that is likely to happen in the next 12 months.<blockquote>坦纳斯认为这可能会在未来12个月内发生。</blockquote>\"We are protecting an industry where there is scarcity and prices are almost triple historical averages,\" she said.<blockquote>“我们正在保护一个短缺且价格几乎是历史平均水平三倍的行业，”她说。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Steel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm<blockquote>钢铁价格翻了两倍。现在美国银行敲响了警钟</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSteel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm<blockquote>钢铁价格翻了两倍。现在美国银行敲响了警钟</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN2021-05-07 10:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)A bubble could be brewing in steel stocks.<blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）钢铁股可能正在酝酿泡沫。</blockquote>The pandemic brought the American steel industry to its knees last spring, forcing manufacturers to shut down production as they struggled to survive the imploding economy. But as the recovery got underway, mills were slow to resume production, and that created a massive steel shortage.Now, thereopening of the economyis driving a steel boom so strong that some are convinced it will end in tears.<blockquote>去年春天，疫情使美国钢铁行业陷入瘫痪，迫使制造商在经济崩溃中挣扎求生时关闭生产。但随着经济复苏的进行，钢厂恢复生产的速度很慢，这造成了严重的钢铁短缺。现在，经济的开放正在推动钢铁繁荣如此强劲，以至于一些人确信它将以泪水告终。</blockquote>The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"PHIL GIBBS, DIRECTOR OF METALS EQUITY RESEARCH AT KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS\"This is going to be short-lived. It's very appropriate to call this a bubble,\" Bank of America analyst Timna Tanners told CNN Business, using the \"b-word\" that equity analysts from major banks typically avoid.<blockquote>调整会非常激烈。这只是何时以及如何发生的问题。”KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS 金属股票研究总监 PHIL GIBBS 表示：“这将是短暂的。将其看涨期权为泡沫是非常合适的，”美国银行分析师蒂姆纳·坦纳斯 (Timna Tanners) 告诉 CNN Business，他使用了主要银行股票分析师通常避免的“b 字”。</blockquote>After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.<blockquote>在去年触底460美元左右后，美国基准热轧卷钢价格目前徘徊在每吨1500美元左右，创下历史新高，几乎是20年平均水平的三倍。</blockquote>Steel stocks are on fire.US Steel(X), whichcrashed to a record low last Marchamid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months.Nucor(NUE)has spiked 76% this year alone.<blockquote>钢铁股正在燃烧。去年 3 月因破产担忧而暴跌至历史新低的美国钢铁公司 (X) 在短短 12 个月内飙升了 200%。纽柯 (NUE) 仅今年就飙升了 76%。</blockquote>While \"scarcity and panic\" are lifting steel prices and stocks today, Tanners predicted a painful reversal as supply catches up with what she described as unimpressive demand.\"<blockquote>虽然“短缺和恐慌”今天正在推高钢铁价格和库存，但坦纳斯预测，随着供应赶上她所说的平淡无奇的需求，情况将出现痛苦的逆转。”</blockquote>We expect this will correct — and often when it corrects, it over-corrects,\" said Tanners, a two-decade veteran of the metals industry who authored a report last week headlined \"Steel stocks in a bubble.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33289af0729f9042e5dcc23e7f56ad7\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"522\">'A bit frothy'<blockquote>我们预计这种情况会得到纠正——而且当它纠正时，往往会过度纠正，”在金属行业工作了二十年的资深人士坦纳斯说，他上周撰写了一份题为《泡沫中的钢铁股》的报告。“有点泡沫”</blockquote>Phil Gibbs, director of metals equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets, agreed that steel prices are at unsustainable levels.<blockquote>KeyBanc Capital Markets 金属股票研究总监菲尔·吉布斯 (Phil Gibbs) 同意钢铁价格处于不可持续的水平。</blockquote>\"This would be like $170-a-barrel oil. At some point, people will say, 'F this, I'm not going to drive, I will take the bus,'\" Gibbs told CNN Business. \"The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"<blockquote>吉布斯告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道：“这相当于每桶 170 美元的石油价格。在某些时候，人们会说，‘既然如此，我就不开车了，我要坐公共汽车。’”“整改力度会非常大，只是时间和方式的问题。”</blockquote>Gibbs said he is \"more confident the steel price is in a bubble,\" rather than that steel stocks themselves are in a bubble.<blockquote>吉布斯表示，他“更有信心钢铁价格处于泡沫中”，而不是钢铁股本身处于泡沫中。</blockquote>The steel bubble buzz is just the latest debate about the sustainability of booming pockets of the market in this era of rock-bottom interest rates. Bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies are on fire. GameStop (GME), AMC (AMC) and their fellow Reddit-fueled stocks skyrocketed earlier this year. And blank-check companies, some backed by celebrities, are raising gobs of money.<blockquote>钢铁泡沫的传闻只是在这个利率触底的时代，关于蓬勃发展的市场的可持续性的最新辩论。比特币、以太币、狗狗币和其他加密货币正在燃烧。游戏驿站 (GME)、AMC (AMC) 及其 Reddit 推动的股票今年早些时候飙升。空白支票公司，其中一些由名人支持，正在筹集大量资金。</blockquote>Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the risk of overspeculation.<blockquote>就连美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认过度投机的风险。</blockquote>\"You are seeing things in capital markets that are a bit frothy,\" Powell said during last week's press conference. \"That's a fact. I won't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but also it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上表示：“你在资本市场上看到的事情有点泡沫。”“这是事实。我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放也有很大关系。”</blockquote>Yet another shortage as the economy reopens<blockquote>随着经济重新开放，又出现短缺</blockquote>Steel is just the latest shortage to hit the US economy as it recovers from a pandemic that scrambled supply chains and set off sharp shifts in demand.<blockquote>钢铁只是美国经济从疫情中复苏的最新一次短缺，疫情扰乱了供应链，引发了需求的急剧变化。</blockquote>Everything from computer chips and lumber to chlorine and tanker truck drivers are in short supply. Manufacturers, restaurants and other businesses are also desperate for workers.<blockquote>从电脑芯片和木材到氯和油罐车司机，一切都供不应求。制造商、餐馆和其他企业也急需工人。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned this week that there isn't enough copper, lithium and other raw earth minerals available to make global clean energy ambitions a reality. The world risks \"running out of copper,\" Bank of America strategists said in a recent note to clients.<blockquote>与此同时，国际能源署本周警告称，没有足够的铜、锂和其他原始地球矿物来实现全球清洁能源的雄心。美国银行策略师在最近给客户的一份报告中表示，世界面临“铜枯竭”的风险。</blockquote>Much like lumber, the steel industry was caught off guard by the rapid recovery in demand that began last summer — especially in the auto industry.<blockquote>就像木材一样，钢铁行业对去年夏天开始的需求快速复苏感到措手不及——尤其是汽车行业。</blockquote>\"All of a sudden people were buying lots of cars,\" said Tanners, the Bank of America analyst.<blockquote>美国银行分析师坦纳斯表示：“突然间，人们开始购买大量汽车。”</blockquote>And it took time for America's aging steel mills to resume the production they had sharply cut at the onset of the pandemic. Steel inventories shrank rapidly and shipments were delayed, just as steel buyers began ordering more than usual.<blockquote>美国老化的钢铁厂花了一段时间才恢复在疫情爆发时大幅削减的产量。钢铁库存迅速萎缩，发货被推迟，而钢铁买家开始比平时订购更多。</blockquote>'Peak' prices?<blockquote>“峰值”价格？</blockquote>The good news, for steel buyers at least, is that analysts say all of the US steel production capacity that was idled during the pandemic has returned.<blockquote>至少对钢铁买家来说，好消息是分析师表示，疫情期间闲置的所有美国钢铁产能都已恢复。</blockquote>That's why Tanners said she's very confident the shortage will soon end, causing steel prices to collapse. History shows that steel stocks \"tend to peak\" a month or so before steel prices, Tanners wrote in her report.<blockquote>这就是为什么坦纳斯表示，她非常有信心短缺很快就会结束，导致钢铁价格暴跌。坦纳斯在报告中写道，历史表明，钢铁库存“往往会在钢铁价格上涨前一个月左右达到顶峰”。</blockquote>She said US Steel in particular is vulnerable to a commodity downturn because it has the most amount of debt and the greatest need to spend to upgrade its plants.<blockquote>她表示，美国钢铁公司尤其容易受到大宗商品低迷的影响，因为它拥有最多的债务，并且最需要支出来升级其工厂。</blockquote>But for now, steel stocks may continue to look attractive to investors because the industry is minting money at the moment. The North American flat steel sector is expected to generate record earnings in 2021, according to Citigroup.<blockquote>但就目前而言，钢铁股可能会继续对投资者具有吸引力，因为该行业目前正在赚钱。花旗集团表示，北美扁钢行业预计将在 2021 年产生创纪录的盈利。</blockquote>\"Current steel prices are peak (or close to it) ... and will correct sharply lower at some point,\" Citi analyst Alexander Hacking wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. \"The current scenario presents investors with the classic peak earnings dilemma.\"<blockquote>花旗分析师亚历山大·哈金 (Alexander Hacking) 周三在给客户的一份报告中写道：“目前的钢铁价格已达到峰值（或接近峰值）……并将在某个时候大幅回调。”“目前的情况给投资者带来了典型的盈利峰值困境。”</blockquote>Hacking warned though that steel stocks can't escape a commodity downturn. \"We can recall exactly zero examples where steel equities have gone up during 25%+ metal price corrections,\" he wrote.<blockquote>不过，黑客警告说，钢铁股无法逃脱大宗商品低迷的影响。“我们可以回忆起在金属价格调整 25% 以上期间钢铁股上涨的例子，”他写道。</blockquote>The fate of Trump's tariffs<blockquote>特朗普关税的命运</blockquote>Of course, those predicting a steel downturn may be underestimating the strength of the global economic recovery. A longer lasting boom could lift steel demand enough to keep prices lofty. Another risk is whether tougher environmental regulations in China will limit steel supply there.<blockquote>当然，那些预测钢铁低迷的人可能低估了全球经济复苏的力度。持续时间更长的繁荣可能会提振钢铁需求，使钢铁价格保持高位。另一个风险是中国更严格的环境法规是否会限制那里的钢铁供应。</blockquote>One big wildcard is the fate of the tariffs on most imported steel the Trump administration imposed in 2018 to boost the domestic industry.<blockquote>一个很大的未知数是特朗普执政在2018年对大多数进口钢铁征收关税以促进国内工业的命运。</blockquote>If the Biden administration rolls back even just some of those tariffs, it would ease supply constraints and weigh on steel prices.<blockquote>如果拜登政府取消哪怕部分关税，也会缓解供应限制并打压钢铁价格。</blockquote>Tanners thinks that is likely to happen in the next 12 months.<blockquote>坦纳斯认为这可能会在未来12个月内发生。</blockquote>\"We are protecting an industry where there is scarcity and prices are almost triple historical averages,\" she said.<blockquote>“我们正在保护一个短缺且价格几乎是历史平均水平三倍的行业，”她说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/06/investing/steel-shortage-stocks-bubble/index.html\">CNN</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/06/investing/steel-shortage-stocks-bubble/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159582956","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)A bubble could be brewing in steel stocks.The pandemic brought the American steel industry to its knees last spring, forcing manufacturers to shut down production as they struggled to survive the imploding economy. But as the recovery got underway, mills were slow to resume production, and that created a massive steel shortage.Now, thereopening of the economyis driving a steel boom so strong that some are convinced it will end in tears.The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"PHIL GIBBS, DIRECTOR OF METALS EQUITY RESEARCH AT KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS\"This is going to be short-lived. It's very appropriate to call this a bubble,\" Bank of America analyst Timna Tanners told CNN Business, using the \"b-word\" that equity analysts from major banks typically avoid.After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.Steel stocks are on fire.US Steel(X), whichcrashed to a record low last Marchamid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months.Nucor(NUE)has spiked 76% this year alone.While \"scarcity and panic\" are lifting steel prices and stocks today, Tanners predicted a painful reversal as supply catches up with what she described as unimpressive demand.\"We expect this will correct — and often when it corrects, it over-corrects,\" said Tanners, a two-decade veteran of the metals industry who authored a report last week headlined \"Steel stocks in a bubble.\"'A bit frothy'Phil Gibbs, director of metals equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets, agreed that steel prices are at unsustainable levels.\"This would be like $170-a-barrel oil. At some point, people will say, 'F this, I'm not going to drive, I will take the bus,'\" Gibbs told CNN Business. \"The correction will be very intense. It's just a matter of when and how it happens.\"Gibbs said he is \"more confident the steel price is in a bubble,\" rather than that steel stocks themselves are in a bubble.The steel bubble buzz is just the latest debate about the sustainability of booming pockets of the market in this era of rock-bottom interest rates. Bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies are on fire. GameStop (GME), AMC (AMC) and their fellow Reddit-fueled stocks skyrocketed earlier this year. And blank-check companies, some backed by celebrities, are raising gobs of money.Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the risk of overspeculation.\"You are seeing things in capital markets that are a bit frothy,\" Powell said during last week's press conference. \"That's a fact. I won't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but also it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.\"Yet another shortage as the economy reopensSteel is just the latest shortage to hit the US economy as it recovers from a pandemic that scrambled supply chains and set off sharp shifts in demand.Everything from computer chips and lumber to chlorine and tanker truck drivers are in short supply. Manufacturers, restaurants and other businesses are also desperate for workers.Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned this week that there isn't enough copper, lithium and other raw earth minerals available to make global clean energy ambitions a reality. The world risks \"running out of copper,\" Bank of America strategists said in a recent note to clients.Much like lumber, the steel industry was caught off guard by the rapid recovery in demand that began last summer — especially in the auto industry.\"All of a sudden people were buying lots of cars,\" said Tanners, the Bank of America analyst.And it took time for America's aging steel mills to resume the production they had sharply cut at the onset of the pandemic. Steel inventories shrank rapidly and shipments were delayed, just as steel buyers began ordering more than usual.'Peak' prices?The good news, for steel buyers at least, is that analysts say all of the US steel production capacity that was idled during the pandemic has returned.That's why Tanners said she's very confident the shortage will soon end, causing steel prices to collapse. History shows that steel stocks \"tend to peak\" a month or so before steel prices, Tanners wrote in her report.She said US Steel in particular is vulnerable to a commodity downturn because it has the most amount of debt and the greatest need to spend to upgrade its plants.But for now, steel stocks may continue to look attractive to investors because the industry is minting money at the moment. The North American flat steel sector is expected to generate record earnings in 2021, according to Citigroup.\"Current steel prices are peak (or close to it) ... and will correct sharply lower at some point,\" Citi analyst Alexander Hacking wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. \"The current scenario presents investors with the classic peak earnings dilemma.\"Hacking warned though that steel stocks can't escape a commodity downturn. \"We can recall exactly zero examples where steel equities have gone up during 25%+ metal price corrections,\" he wrote.The fate of Trump's tariffsOf course, those predicting a steel downturn may be underestimating the strength of the global economic recovery. A longer lasting boom could lift steel demand enough to keep prices lofty. Another risk is whether tougher environmental regulations in China will limit steel supply there.One big wildcard is the fate of the tariffs on most imported steel the Trump administration imposed in 2018 to boost the domestic industry.If the Biden administration rolls back even just some of those tariffs, it would ease supply constraints and weigh on steel prices.Tanners thinks that is likely to happen in the next 12 months.\"We are protecting an industry where there is scarcity and prices are almost triple historical averages,\" she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/104394336"}