Heng83
2021-05-07
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3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开AT&T的3个理由</blockquote>
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Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式相当稳定，但我们正在回避该股。</li><li>我们有三个共同的原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T(T)是一只珍贵的股息股票，这有几个很好的理由。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其HBO Max业务感到兴奋，它相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务集合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并不完全看跌该公司——但我们仍然出于以下三个原因在我们的投资组合中避免T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在对DirectTV的收购失败上浪费了670亿美元，后来迫使他们注销了其中高达155亿美元的资产，并承认此次交易导致股东价值损失了近25%。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>结果，如今他们的长期净债务高达约169B美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的长期净债务水平的大约三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的EBITDA在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地应对未来，并且必须将满足债务主人的首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.商业模式薄弱</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T的业务大多非常疲软，盈利能力也很差。如下图所示，T的投资资本回报率和资产回报率相当糟糕，通常徘徊在中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担债务的利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者带来有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和光纤——都是技术密集型的，因此面临着激烈的竞争。由于传统业务的衰落影响了业绩，沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖债务发行来实现增长、资产和投资资本回报率非常疲弱、许多业务的业绩下滑以及T少数增长行业面临的激烈技术竞争，我们并不乐观所有T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。反过来，这将使它们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表，从而加剧它们的债务问题。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.估值不具吸引力</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T丰厚的股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不成熟且毫无戒心的退休人员只是简单地看看股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点而收益率接近历史高点，那么一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年为止，股息已经连续增长了36年，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的固定产品，许多投资者认为它坚如磐石。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人的印象是股息非常安全。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股价的便宜和股息的安全都是幻想。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但更准确反映其当前市场估值的是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T的企业价值超过了其市值三倍多，这意味着股价并不像表面上暗示的那么便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T的企业价值与EBITDA的真实估值使该公司在历史基础上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像65%的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约98%的收入被费用和股息消耗，这使得管理层只有约2%的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前条件下这应该足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示，过去一个季度利息支出相对于收入和EBITDA有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度还有很多事情需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。在如此庞大的债务负担下，如果利率长期大幅上升，随着越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗，T的股息覆盖率将很快受到侵蚀。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持巨额且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T对流媒体和光纤的进军虽然充满增长潜力，但也是非常资本密集型的。我们将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以便在流媒体战争中与Netflix(NFLX)、Amazon(AMZN)、Disney(DIS)和苹果(AAPL)等公司竞争，而且光纤基础设施的建设成本非常昂贵。并面临有限的进入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业企业中的一个或两个最终可能会促使T削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在2020年第四季度收益看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年使用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并利用这些资金减少债务。我们致力于<b>将股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减少债务放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决该问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是一位自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平的事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然T的第一季度业绩可能因HBO Max的强劲表现及其核心无线和宽带业务业绩的改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然过高，他们的成长型业务仍然被财务灵活性远高于他们的竞争对手所超越，而且他们的EV/EBITDA很难达到我们所认为的看涨期权便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率持续大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，T的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来风险调整后的总回报持中性态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开AT&T的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开AT&T的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>T is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.</li> <li>While the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.</li> <li>We share three reasons why.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式相当稳定，但我们正在回避该股。</li><li>我们有三个共同的原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T(T)是一只珍贵的股息股票，这有几个很好的理由。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其HBO Max业务感到兴奋，它相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务集合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并不完全看跌该公司——但我们仍然出于以下三个原因在我们的投资组合中避免T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在对DirectTV的收购失败上浪费了670亿美元，后来迫使他们注销了其中高达155亿美元的资产，并承认此次交易导致股东价值损失了近25%。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>结果，如今他们的长期净债务高达约169B美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的长期净债务水平的大约三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的EBITDA在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地应对未来，并且必须将满足债务主人的首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.商业模式薄弱</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T的业务大多非常疲软，盈利能力也很差。如下图所示，T的投资资本回报率和资产回报率相当糟糕，通常徘徊在中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担债务的利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者带来有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和光纤——都是技术密集型的，因此面临着激烈的竞争。由于传统业务的衰落影响了业绩，沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖债务发行来实现增长、资产和投资资本回报率非常疲弱、许多业务的业绩下滑以及T少数增长行业面临的激烈技术竞争，我们并不乐观所有T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。反过来，这将使它们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表，从而加剧它们的债务问题。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.估值不具吸引力</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T丰厚的股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不成熟且毫无戒心的退休人员只是简单地看看股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点而收益率接近历史高点，那么一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年为止，股息已经连续增长了36年，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的固定产品，许多投资者认为它坚如磐石。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人的印象是股息非常安全。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股价的便宜和股息的安全都是幻想。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但更准确反映其当前市场估值的是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T的企业价值超过了其市值三倍多，这意味着股价并不像表面上暗示的那么便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T的企业价值与EBITDA的真实估值使该公司在历史基础上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像65%的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约98%的收入被费用和股息消耗，这使得管理层只有约2%的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前条件下这应该足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示，过去一个季度利息支出相对于收入和EBITDA有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度还有很多事情需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。在如此庞大的债务负担下，如果利率长期大幅上升，随着越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗，T的股息覆盖率将很快受到侵蚀。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持巨额且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T对流媒体和光纤的进军虽然充满增长潜力，但也是非常资本密集型的。我们将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以便在流媒体战争中与Netflix(NFLX)、Amazon(AMZN)、Disney(DIS)和苹果(AAPL)等公司竞争，而且光纤基础设施的建设成本非常昂贵。并面临有限的进入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业企业中的一个或两个最终可能会促使T削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在2020年第四季度收益看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年使用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并利用这些资金减少债务。我们致力于<b>将股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减少债务放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决该问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是一位自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平的事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然T的第一季度业绩可能因HBO Max的强劲表现及其核心无线和宽带业务业绩的改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然过高，他们的成长型业务仍然被财务灵活性远高于他们的竞争对手所超越，而且他们的EV/EBITDA很难达到我们所认为的看涨期权便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率持续大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，T的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来风险调整后的总回报持中性态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176438696","content_text":"Summary\n\nT is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.\nWhile the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.\nWe share three reasons why.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:\nData by YCharts\nMeanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.\n\nsource\nWhile all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:\n#1. Massive Debt Burden\nIn recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.\nAs a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:\nData by YCharts\nTen years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.\nData by YCharts\nWith such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.\n#2. Weak Business Model\nAdditionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.\nFurthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.\nGiven the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.\n#3. Unattractive Valuation\nEven worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.\nData by YCharts\nMany unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.\nTheir 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.\nUnfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).\nAs you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:\nFurthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.\nWhile the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.\n<<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts\nFurthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.\nLast, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.\nAlready, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:\n\n We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to\n sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.\n\nWhile it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.\nInvestor Takeaway\nWhile T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.\nAll that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/104158084"}
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