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2021-05-05

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Here's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特对伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司银行抛售的解释</blockquote>

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Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up onBank of America(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司s(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)年度股东大会及其马拉松式问答环节再次来来去去，让投资者再次一窥传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的非凡头脑。周六直播中出现的一些问题涉及伯克希尔在去年大流行早期采取的举措，包括是什么导致该公司退出大部分银行头寸，同时增加美国银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BAC）。经过几个月的猜测，巴菲特对推动他决策的因素有了一些见解。</blockquote> Too much exposure<blockquote>暴露过多</blockquote> Prior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.<blockquote>在大流行之前，伯克希尔拥有一系列银行股，巴菲特似乎对该行业持乐观立场。然而，随着居家令和经济停摆蔓延到全国各地，银行准备面临严重的贷款损失，巴菲特似乎来了个180度大转弯，退出了许多持有的股票。</blockquote> Berkshire eliminated its stake in investment bankGoldman Sachs&nbsp;and eventuallyJPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks likePNC Financial Services Group&nbsp;andM&amp;T Bank. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favoriteWells Fargo, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.<blockquote>伯克希尔清算其在投资银行的股份高盛最终摩根大通按资产计算是美国最大的银行。伯克希尔还出售了其在地区性银行的头寸，例如PNC金融服务集团和M&amp;T银行巴菲特似乎正在寻求摆脱昔日的宠儿富国银行，在过去几个季度逐渐出售股票。</blockquote> While all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.<blockquote>在这一切发生的同时，巴菲特和伯克希尔向美国银行注入了超过 20 亿美元的股票，并将该公司的股份增加到流通股的 11.9%，此举需要监管机构的特别批准。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2da7d6438277757a73f9e626ebc6fc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> While we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.<blockquote>虽然我们还不知道巴菲特在2021年采取了什么行动，但他似乎并没有做太多，因为伯克希尔银行、保险和金融股在第一季度后的成本基础仅略高于2020年底。</blockquote> During the Q&amp;A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.<blockquote>在伯克希尔股东大会的问答部分，巴菲特被问及为什么他去年出售了大部分银行股票。</blockquote> \"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"<blockquote>巴菲特表示：“总的来说，我喜欢银行，我只是不喜欢我们与可能的风险进行比较的比例，如果我们得到了迄今为止我们还没有得到的糟糕结果。”“总的来说，我们不想要像现在这样多的银行。”</blockquote> The Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"<blockquote>奥马哈先知补充道：“银行业比 10 或 15 年前的美国要好得多。世界各地的银行业务——在不同的地方——可能会让我担心。但我们的银行比 10 或 15 年前好得多。但当事情在短时间内冻结时，银行对他们来说最大的好处是美联储支持他们，而美联储并不支持伯克希尔。这取决于我们自己照顾好自己。”</blockquote> What to make of this<blockquote>如何看待这个</blockquote> Buffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.<blockquote>巴菲特是有史以来最伟大的投资头脑之一，如果不是第一的话，因此重要的是要认识到我们很难像他一样准确地看到这些举动。我当然可以欣赏他关于曝光太多的评论。请记住，巴菲特管理着数千亿美元的股票投资组合，因此无论哪种方式，几个百分点都是巨大的。他需要比标准的负责任投资者更多地考虑安全性（巴菲特有时称自己为伯克希尔的“首席风险官”，周六他又这样做了）。但我真的很难理解所有这些动作。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.<blockquote>高盛的贷款并不是很重，因此它并没有真正面临与美国银行和摩根大通等其他大型银行相同程度的风险。投资银行在波动时期也往往表现得更好，高盛正在努力建立其消费者银行以及资产和财富管理部门，以产生更稳定的收入。高盛的股价比大流行之前上涨了近 40%，许多 thinkit 的交易价格仍然很便宜。</blockquote> Buffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.<blockquote>巴菲特买入美国银行并抛售摩根大通的决定对我来说是一个更大的谜。摩根大通不仅业务更加多元化，而且盈利能力也更强。银行也非常安全。2020 年，其贷款损失准备金达到峰值 340 亿美元，但该银行已为其准备金达到峰值 520 亿美元的情况做好了准备。摩根大通也比美国任何一家最大的银行都更好地应对了大衰退。巴菲特在今年第四季度正式清算了伯克希尔在摩根大通的股份。与此同时，按周二的价格计算，该股今年迄今已上涨近 21%，考虑到巴菲特在 2020 年第三季度出售了大部分摩根大通头寸，他可能会错过更多升值。</blockquote> Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.<blockquote>事后看来，当然是20/20，但数字也是数字，巴菲特错过了他以前持有的银行股可能刚刚开始的巨大收益。银行可能会迎来多年的强劲表现，预计在利率上升的环境下盈利将大幅增长。巴菲特周六确实表示，他担心“非常严重的通胀”，因此他可能认为过高的通胀可能会抑制贷款需求，或者利率上升可能会暴露出糟糕的信贷质量。然而，银行和金融股等周期性股票在通货膨胀期间往往比高增长科技股表现更好，伯克希尔最近将高增长科技股纳入其投资组合的比例超过了金融股。</blockquote> Is Buffett done with banking?<blockquote>巴菲特银行业结束了吗？</blockquote> Buffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behindApple. Berkshire also still has large positions inAmerican Express,&nbsp;U.S. Bancorp, andBank of New York Mellon. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.<blockquote>巴菲特并没有完全放弃这个行业。美国银行仍然是伯克希尔第二大持股苹果伯克希尔在美国运通, 合众银行，和纽约梅隆银行巴菲特也可能不是在这里操纵一切——他已经将伯克希尔的大部分投资权力让给了其他可能做出决策的人。众所周知，巴菲特的两名副手托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒现在更多地参与伯克希尔的投资组合决策。此外，伯克希尔最近证实，伯克希尔副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔预计将在巴菲特最终卸任后接替他担任首席执行官。</blockquote> But with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.<blockquote>但鉴于最近发生的一切，我们似乎还需要一段时间才能看到伯克希尔再次购买传统银行股。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特对伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司银行抛售的解释</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特对伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司银行抛售的解释</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe motley fool2021-05-05 10:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBerkshire Hathaway's(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and-answer session have once again come and gone, offering investors another glimpse into the extraordinary mind of legendary investor Warren Buffett. Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up onBank of America(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司s(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)年度股东大会及其马拉松式问答环节再次来来去去，让投资者再次一窥传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的非凡头脑。周六直播中出现的一些问题涉及伯克希尔在去年大流行早期采取的举措，包括是什么导致该公司退出大部分银行头寸，同时增加美国银行（纽约证券交易所代码：BAC）。经过几个月的猜测，巴菲特对推动他决策的因素有了一些见解。</blockquote> Too much exposure<blockquote>暴露过多</blockquote> Prior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.<blockquote>在大流行之前，伯克希尔拥有一系列银行股，巴菲特似乎对该行业持乐观立场。然而，随着居家令和经济停摆蔓延到全国各地，银行准备面临严重的贷款损失，巴菲特似乎来了个180度大转弯，退出了许多持有的股票。</blockquote> Berkshire eliminated its stake in investment bankGoldman Sachs&nbsp;and eventuallyJPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks likePNC Financial Services Group&nbsp;andM&amp;T Bank. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favoriteWells Fargo, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.<blockquote>伯克希尔清算其在投资银行的股份高盛最终摩根大通按资产计算是美国最大的银行。伯克希尔还出售了其在地区性银行的头寸，例如PNC金融服务集团和M&amp;T银行巴菲特似乎正在寻求摆脱昔日的宠儿富国银行，在过去几个季度逐渐出售股票。</blockquote> While all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.<blockquote>在这一切发生的同时，巴菲特和伯克希尔向美国银行注入了超过 20 亿美元的股票，并将该公司的股份增加到流通股的 11.9%，此举需要监管机构的特别批准。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2da7d6438277757a73f9e626ebc6fc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> While we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.<blockquote>虽然我们还不知道巴菲特在2021年采取了什么行动，但他似乎并没有做太多，因为伯克希尔银行、保险和金融股在第一季度后的成本基础仅略高于2020年底。</blockquote> During the Q&amp;A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.<blockquote>在伯克希尔股东大会的问答部分，巴菲特被问及为什么他去年出售了大部分银行股票。</blockquote> \"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"<blockquote>巴菲特表示：“总的来说，我喜欢银行，我只是不喜欢我们与可能的风险进行比较的比例，如果我们得到了迄今为止我们还没有得到的糟糕结果。”“总的来说，我们不想要像现在这样多的银行。”</blockquote> The Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"<blockquote>奥马哈先知补充道：“银行业比 10 或 15 年前的美国要好得多。世界各地的银行业务——在不同的地方——可能会让我担心。但我们的银行比 10 或 15 年前好得多。但当事情在短时间内冻结时，银行对他们来说最大的好处是美联储支持他们，而美联储并不支持伯克希尔。这取决于我们自己照顾好自己。”</blockquote> What to make of this<blockquote>如何看待这个</blockquote> Buffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.<blockquote>巴菲特是有史以来最伟大的投资头脑之一，如果不是第一的话，因此重要的是要认识到我们很难像他一样准确地看到这些举动。我当然可以欣赏他关于曝光太多的评论。请记住，巴菲特管理着数千亿美元的股票投资组合，因此无论哪种方式，几个百分点都是巨大的。他需要比标准的负责任投资者更多地考虑安全性（巴菲特有时称自己为伯克希尔的“首席风险官”，周六他又这样做了）。但我真的很难理解所有这些动作。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.<blockquote>高盛的贷款并不是很重，因此它并没有真正面临与美国银行和摩根大通等其他大型银行相同程度的风险。投资银行在波动时期也往往表现得更好，高盛正在努力建立其消费者银行以及资产和财富管理部门，以产生更稳定的收入。高盛的股价比大流行之前上涨了近 40%，许多 thinkit 的交易价格仍然很便宜。</blockquote> Buffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.<blockquote>巴菲特买入美国银行并抛售摩根大通的决定对我来说是一个更大的谜。摩根大通不仅业务更加多元化，而且盈利能力也更强。银行也非常安全。2020 年，其贷款损失准备金达到峰值 340 亿美元，但该银行已为其准备金达到峰值 520 亿美元的情况做好了准备。摩根大通也比美国任何一家最大的银行都更好地应对了大衰退。巴菲特在今年第四季度正式清算了伯克希尔在摩根大通的股份。与此同时，按周二的价格计算，该股今年迄今已上涨近 21%，考虑到巴菲特在 2020 年第三季度出售了大部分摩根大通头寸，他可能会错过更多升值。</blockquote> Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.<blockquote>事后看来，当然是20/20，但数字也是数字，巴菲特错过了他以前持有的银行股可能刚刚开始的巨大收益。银行可能会迎来多年的强劲表现，预计在利率上升的环境下盈利将大幅增长。巴菲特周六确实表示，他担心“非常严重的通胀”，因此他可能认为过高的通胀可能会抑制贷款需求，或者利率上升可能会暴露出糟糕的信贷质量。然而，银行和金融股等周期性股票在通货膨胀期间往往比高增长科技股表现更好，伯克希尔最近将高增长科技股纳入其投资组合的比例超过了金融股。</blockquote> Is Buffett done with banking?<blockquote>巴菲特银行业结束了吗？</blockquote> Buffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behindApple. Berkshire also still has large positions inAmerican Express,&nbsp;U.S. Bancorp, andBank of New York Mellon. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.<blockquote>巴菲特并没有完全放弃这个行业。美国银行仍然是伯克希尔第二大持股苹果伯克希尔在美国运通, 合众银行，和纽约梅隆银行巴菲特也可能不是在这里操纵一切——他已经将伯克希尔的大部分投资权力让给了其他可能做出决策的人。众所周知，巴菲特的两名副手托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒现在更多地参与伯克希尔的投资组合决策。此外，伯克希尔最近证实，伯克希尔副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔预计将在巴菲特最终卸任后接替他担任首席执行官。</blockquote> But with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.<blockquote>但鉴于最近发生的一切，我们似乎还需要一段时间才能看到伯克希尔再次购买传统银行股。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/04/heres-how-warren-buffett-explained-berkshire-hatha/\">The motley fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/04/heres-how-warren-buffett-explained-berkshire-hatha/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132504423","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and-answer session have once again come and gone, offering investors another glimpse into the extraordinary mind of legendary investor Warren Buffett. Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up onBank of America(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.\nToo much exposure\nPrior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.\nBerkshire eliminated its stake in investment bankGoldman Sachs and eventuallyJPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks likePNC Financial Services Group andM&T Bank. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favoriteWells Fargo, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.\nWhile all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nWhile we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.\nDuring the Q&A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.\n\"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"\nThe Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"\nWhat to make of this\nBuffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.\nGoldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.\nBuffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.\nHindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.\nIs Buffett done with banking?\nBuffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behindApple. Berkshire also still has large positions inAmerican Express, U.S. Bancorp, andBank of New York Mellon. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.\nBut with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/102848660"}