大摩(MS.US)：AI 资本开支 1.6 万亿，英伟达(NVDA.US)独吞近 7000 亿

智通财经网10-21

据 Woofun AI 消息，摩根士丹利(MS.US)于 2026 年 10 月 20 日发布重磅研报，指出 AI 资本开支规模已攀升至 1.6 万亿美元量级，这一巨额投入直接驱动 S&P500 指数实现约 25% 的收入增长，尽管其仅占指数总收入的 5%。报告核心逻辑在于，超大规模厂商与新型云厂商的资本支出结构正在发生根本性重构，现金支出与租赁承诺的双轨并行使得实际投入规模远超传统财务披露，而...

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Woofun AI 消息，摩根士丹利(MS.US)于 2026 年 10 月 20 日发布重磅研报，指出 AI 资本开支规模已攀升至 1.6 万亿美元量级，这一巨额投入直接驱动 S&P500 指数实现约 25% 的收入增长，尽管其仅占指数总收入的 5%。报告核心逻辑在于，超大规模厂商与新型云厂商的资本支出结构正在发生根本性重构，现金支出与租赁承诺的双轨并行使得实际投入规模远超传统财务披露，而英伟达(NVDA.US)作为最大受益者，其收入占比与产业链主导地位进一步固化，但增速放缓与电力瓶颈已成为悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。资本开支的统计口径扩展是理解本轮 AI 投资潮的关键变量。大摩将超大规模厂商和新型云厂商的现金开支与租赁开支加总，测算出 2027 年总资本开支为 1.58 万亿美元，2028 年将进一步扩大至 1.81 万亿美元。其中，租赁开支作为新增变量，在 2027 年达到 1950 亿美元，2028 年增至 2460 亿美元，这部分支出主要来自甲骨文(ORCL.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、Meta(META.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)。值得注意的是，截至 2Q26，这些厂商已披露超过 1.118 万亿美元尚未开始的租赁承诺，具体分布为：微软 3290 亿美元、甲骨文 2880 亿美元、Meta 2790 亿美元、亚马逊 1370 亿美元、谷歌 850 亿美元。这些租赁在经济实质上类似债务融资的资本开支，绕过了 GAAP 现金流量表的直接约束。Woofun AI 整理数据显示，大摩通过已签未开始租赁、年度新增容量及每 GW 租赁开支比例三项指标进行估算，得出 2027 年现金资本开支约 1.4 万亿美元，加上租赁后总额达 1.58 万亿美元；2028 年现金部分约 1.57 万亿美元，加租赁后达 1.81 万亿美元。尽管绝对规模持续上升，但增速呈现显著放缓趋势：从 2026 年的约 100% 降至 2027 年的约 60%，再到 2028 年的约 14%。2026 到 2027 年间新增约 7000 亿美元 AI 支出，其中约 65% 流入 S&P500 公司，引发市场对 2028 年减速的担忧。资金流向的高度集中凸显了英伟达的绝对统治力。在 1.6 万亿美元资本开支中，约 1.0 万亿美元转化为 S&P500 公司的收入，其中英伟达独占约 6900 亿美元，占据 S&P500 吸收部分的 2/3，约占 S&P500 2027 年销售额的 1.6%。剩余 3390 亿美元流向其他 S&P500 公司。从客户结构看，英伟达在超大规模厂商资本开支中的份额差异显著：SPCX 约为 79%，AWS 约为 29%。SPCX 和 AWS 合计贡献英伟达超大规模收入的 54%，其余 46% 来自微软、甲骨文、Meta 和谷歌。英伟达 2027 年数据中心总收入预计为 6309 亿美元，其中超大规模部分为 3375 亿美元，占比 53.5%。大摩认为，英伟达在 FY28 以每股收益 15 倍估值交易并不昂贵，其股价可由盈利增长独立驱动。产业链其他受益者包括博通(AVGO.US)、AMD(AMD.US)、美光(MU.US)、三星和 SK 海力士，主要分布在 AI 芯片、存储、网络、光模块及 ODM 服务器领域。从指数表现看，2027 年 AI 相关名称（AI names）在 S&P500 中的销售增长预计为 28%，非 AI 公司为 5%；盈利增长方面，AI 公司为 25%，非 AI 公司为 4%。AI names 贡献了 S&P500 2027 年盈利增长的 78%，占指数净利润的 37%。Magnificent 7 占据 AI 阵营销售的 70% 和盈利的 75%。整体而言，2027 年 S&P500 收入增长 8.6%，剔除 AI 直接收入后仍有 6.6%，表明指数扩散（broadening）正在进行，即使没有 AI 投资，增长依然强劲。未来展望中，增速放缓与电力瓶颈构成主要风险。大摩强调，2028 年资本开支增长 14% 并不意味着见顶，2027 年是采用者的关键年份，AI 对企业及个人的生产率机会正在扩大，远期利润率预期在 AI 采用强、定价权高的公司改善最明显。然而，1.6 万亿美元的资本开支假设每一颗订购的芯片都能通电运行，这忽视了电力基础设施的滞后性。根据 Powering AI 模型，扣除时间到电力解决方案后，美国到 2028 年仍有 32GW 净电力缺口，到 2029 年缺口扩大至约 72GW。通电容量跟不上芯片交付，导致支出风险呈现时间错配特征。存储、网络、光模块、ODM 服务器对电力墙最为敏感，而电力解决方案供应商成为相对受益者。美国电力紧张可能推动超大规模厂商将资本开支转向海外建设。AI names 的领导权正从纯支持者（enabler）向支持者/采用者混合及纯采用者（adopter）转变。2027 年 S&P500 销售增长 9%，剔除 AI 投资后约 7%，仍符合名义 GDP 和历史销售增长回归趋势。AI 开支在增量上推动增长，指数扩散已全面展开，但 2028 年减速是否会被电力瓶颈放大，将是后续市场关注的核心变量。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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