从光芯片到覆铜板 A股AI硬件板块因何轮番走低？

东方财富网10-09

国庆假期后的A股市场AI硬件赛道遭遇接连下跌。　　继10月8日光芯片板块集体跌停后，10月9日，覆铜板接棒领跌，金安国纪（002636.SZ）、华正新材（603186.SH）盘中双双跌停，PCB、存储、电子布等板块纷纷下挫，创业板指盘中一度跌破3000点。午后资金入场，各大指数相继翻红。　　科技股经过一个季度筹码整理后，10月伊始却连续破位下跌。从光芯片到覆铜板、PCB、存储，近两个交易日里被抛售...

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declining?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300308":1.93,"300502":1.93,"601869":1.93,"603186":1.96,"603986":1.93,"688020":1.9,"688825":1.93,"06869":1.93,"03986":1.93,"03308":1.93,"002371":1.93,"002916":1.93,"002636":1.96},"content_text":"国庆假期后的A股市场AI硬件赛道遭遇接连下跌。　　继10月8日光芯片板块集体跌停后，10月9日，覆铜板接棒领跌，金安国纪（002636.SZ）、华正新材（603186.SH）盘中双双跌停，PCB、存储、电子布等板块纷纷下挫，创业板指盘中一度跌破3000点。午后资金入场，各大指数相继翻红。　　科技股经过一个季度筹码整理后，10月伊始却连续破位下跌。从光芯片到覆铜板、PCB、存储，近两个交易日里被抛售的标的，高度重合于公募基金二季报显示的季度加仓名单，当重仓的方向接连成为抛压来源，市场内关于“抱团是否松动”的讨论也越来越热。　　科技股全天剧烈震荡，筹码松动迹象未消　　10月9日早盘，热门科技赛道的抛压如注，长鑫科技（688825.SH）、中际旭创（300308.SZ）、新易盛（300502.SZ）、北方华创（002371.SZ）、深南电路（002916.SZ）、兆易创新（603986.SH）、长飞光纤（601869.SH）等AI硬件侧核心标的集体下滑。　　覆铜板环节的抛售最为集中。早盘10点刚过，金安国纪、华正新材双双跌停打击板块人气，其余个股抛盘不断涌出，生益科技盘中一度触及跌停，方邦股份（688020.SH）跌幅一度超过14%。存储、液冷、半导体设备、光模块等板块同步走低，MLCC板块亦大幅调整，风华高科跌停，国瓷材料、昀冢科技跌超10%。　　午后资金再度放量回流，部分科技股盘中跌幅明显收窄，市场情绪回暖，三大指数全部翻红。科创50早盘一度跌超4%，午后收复日内失地，权重股中芯国际、寒武纪、澜起科技、盛合晶微集体发力。　　一天之前，类似剧本已在光通信上演。10月8日，源杰科技、长光华芯双双20%跌停，东山精密跌停，“易中天”同步下跌，申万通信设备板块单日下跌4.48%。　　科技抱团松动进行时？　　节后两个交易日，光通信、PCB、半导体等科技板块轮番下跌，甚至一度在盘中呈现出科技普跌的情形，而这些被资金集中抛售的品种几乎都是公募基金二季度主要加仓的品种，而非边缘品种。　　过去两年，通信与电子一直是公募基金的“心头好”，而在今年二季度末，机构对电子与通信的配置比例上升至本轮行情以来最高水位。据统计，主动偏股基金对电子、通信两个行业的持仓占比合计接近60%，双双创出2015年以来的新高；主动权益基金前十大重仓股持仓集中度升至56.61%。从赛道口径看，主动偏股基金对AI硬件（光模块、PCB、半导体等）的配置比例升至54%，超配比例达到30.4个百分点，超配比例为历史主流赛道的最高值。　　兴证策略团队的统计显示，今年二季度主动公募对AI上游材料的持仓比例大幅提升5.6个百分点至12.9%。细分方向上，主动公募对半导体、PCB、覆铜板CCL、电阻上游材料加仓较多，对光模块、光纤、液冷上游材料则有所减仓；其中覆铜板CCL中的电子布、电子铜箔均在加仓之列。　　科技连续下跌之际，主动基金是否真在三季度反弹中集中减仓？目前不能下此定论，还有待三季报披露数据。　　不过，盘后龙虎榜数据揭示了机构的短期博弈态度。10月8日盘后龙虎榜显示，当天抛售光芯片的主力集中在“机构席位”。源杰科技卖出前五席位中有4个是“机构专用”，合计净卖出14.36亿元，买入前五则清一色为券商营业部与外资席位，无一家机构专用出现在买方席位；长光华芯当天机构专用席位合计净卖出3.77亿元，买方仍以沪股通，以及中金、瑞银等券商营业部席位为主。也就是说，两只光芯片股跌停背后，机构席位是当日最坚决的卖家。　　高集中度本身就是波动放大器，高仓位意味着基金净值对电子、通信板块的波动更加敏感，一旦出现赎回或主动减仓，调整幅度可能较大。科技在三季度迎来的是一轮罕见的下跌：创业板指三季度累计下跌27.8%、科创50指数累计下跌30.7%，双双创下各自历史单季度最大跌幅；行业层面，电子、通信三季度累计跌幅分别为32.6%和28.7%，在所有申万一级行业中位列前二。　　一位接受记者采访的机构人士表示，多只公募重仓的半导体、算力硬件股近期持续下跌，叠加热门股跌停板上的巨额抛压，如此量级的筹码，只有机构能够做到。“回顾7月至10月，每一次反弹之后，部分细分科技板块都再度走低，抛压与仓位兑现的路径较为吻合，我们认为，在目前的市场背景下，行业政策层面的风吹草动都可能引发个股异动，部分机构或是为了避险，或是出于锁定部分收益的目的，正在调整对相关行业的配置。”上述机构人士说。　　科技股的基本面之强与筹码之弱，构成当前板块最大的矛盾。三季报披露窗口即将打开，届时基金前十大重仓股数据将给出主动基金真实仓位，究竟是阶段性出清，还是趋势性逆转，也将揭晓。（文章来源：第一财经）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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