美联储再添官员释放加息信号，会启动新一轮加息周期吗

澎湃新闻09-25 09:12

美联储又有两名官员释放加息信号。　　9月24日，纽约联储主席John Williams表示，今年年底前再次加息是合理的。　　Williams表示，市场参与者认为“今年年底前再次加息可能是合适的”，他认为这种判断是合理的。不过，他同时强调，美联储仍需要观察数据，“我们将收集数据，就像7月至9月期间所做的那样”。　　此前，美联储在9月会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%至...

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Hammack在“通胀驱动因素与动态”会议上发表开场讲话时，也再次强调了当前通胀面临的上行风险。\n　　Hammack指出，“对于货币政策而言，一个尤其具有挑战性的方面是，我们近期持续遭遇一连串冲击。这些冲击既来自供给侧，例如关税和油价，也来自需求侧，例如与人工智能相关的资本支出繁荣。”\n　　Hammack表示，传统观点认为，货币政策可以不理会（look through）供给冲击，因为供给冲击通常是暂时性的，可能导致价格水平一次性上升，而不是持续推高通胀率或通胀预期。但她指出，如果经济变得更容易受到冲击，或者“一系列冲击接连发生”，同时通胀此前已经持续多年处于高位，那么通胀预期和通胀行为变得更加根深蒂固的风险就会增加。\n　　“高通胀持续的时间越长，将其重新降下来就可能越困难，成本也可能越高。”她说。\n　　机构预计美联储可能还会加息，但幅度不会太大\n　　相较于市场对进一步加息的预期，部分机构认为，美联储后续加息幅度可能有限。\n　　9月24日，高盛在最新报告中预计，美联储在10月27日的议息会议上会完成今年的最后一次加息，随后本轮美联储的加息周期可能就结束了。但需要注意的是，该行补充称，实现这一预测的前提条件是，油价持续回落以抑制通胀。\n　　高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius还表示，预计美联储10月继续加息部分原因在于，近年来美联储几乎没有在大选前的议息会议上暂停加息的先例。2022年美国中期选举前6天，美联储还曾加息75个基点。高盛认为，没有明显理由认为美联储主席Kevin Warsh今年会采取不同于以往的做法。\n　　太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）首席美国经济学家Tiffany Wilding表示，美联储未来几次会议仍可能继续加息，预计今年及明年初可能再加息1至2次，每次25个基点。不过，她强调，这更像是一次“政策重新校准”，而非开启新一轮持续的加息周期。Wilding认为，随着关税、能源以及计算设备等因素带来的暂时性成本压力逐步消退，到2027年初，进一步调整货币政策的必要性可能下降。\n　　澎湃新闻见习记者 赵宇琦","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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