宁德时代，继续新低

IPO日报13:00

伴随着大盘的低开，“宁王”同步调下跌，股价继续跳水。　　9月28日，宁德时代以289元开盘，股价创今年来新低，早盘一度跌至286.66元，市盈率15倍。截至9点51分，成交量10.63万手，成交金额30.70亿元，换手率0.25%。　　从趋势上看，宁德时代股价继续呈现下跌之势。从近期成交量来看，由于属于持续放量状态，没有缩量，说明里面的资金还在涌出，恐慌性情绪还在，短期恐难止住跌势。　　投资者需要...

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GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0254981946.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC MARKETS EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0205439572.USD":"富达亚太股息基金","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU2506952410.USD":"BNP PARIBAS CLIMATE IMPACT \"CRH\" (USDHDG) ACC A","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU1255011170.USD":"JPM CHINA A-SHARE OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU2506952253.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GREEN TIGERS \"CRH\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"CATL continues to hit new lows","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1.98,"03750":1.98,"EVS.SI":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"CXSE":0.6},"content_text":"伴随着大盘的低开，“宁王”同步调下跌，股价继续跳水。　　9月28日，宁德时代以289元开盘，股价创今年来新低，早盘一度跌至286.66元，市盈率15倍。截至9点51分，成交量10.63万手，成交金额30.70亿元，换手率0.25%。　　从趋势上看，宁德时代股价继续呈现下跌之势。从近期成交量来看，由于属于持续放量状态，没有缩量，说明里面的资金还在涌出，恐慌性情绪还在，短期恐难止住跌势。　　投资者需要继续关注它的量能变化。另外，从技术上分析，宁德时代的垄断门槛和优势可能也在缩小。　　我们来具体请分析一下它的财务基本面情况和技术优势的领先度，看看它是否有基本面危机。　　2026年上半年，宁德时代实现营业收入2769.17亿元，同比增长54.80%；归母净利润432.84亿元，同比增长41.98%；扣非归母净利润390.13亿元，同比增长43.44%。单季度看，Q1营收1291.31亿元，归母净利润207.38亿元，均创历史同期新高。　　虽然宁王基本面强劲，但盈利端也出现了值得关注的信号：2026年上半年，动力电池系统收入1921.25亿元，同比增长46.02%，毛利率20.63%，同比下降1.78个百分点；储能电池系统收入532.61亿元，同比增长87.54%，毛利率23.96%，同比下降1.56个百分点。　　宁王动力电池收入高增的同时毛利率压缩，单位毛利同环比双降。　　其整体毛利率同样承压。 2026年上半年毛利率23.2%，同比/环比分别下降2.4和1.7个百分点，净利率16.4%。　　从市占率来看，宁王当前的国内市场依然遥遥领先。根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，2026年1-6月公司在国内乘用车装车量份额达46.7%，同比提升5.6个百分点；其中三元动力电池装车量份额达75.2%，同比提升4.3个百分点。　　而在全球市场，宁王同样能打。 根据SNE Research数据，2026年1-5月公司动力电池使用量全球市占率为40.2%，同比提升2.2个百分点；海外市场份额为33.7%，同比提升3.7个百分点。　　不过有一点需要关注。宁王的市场份额提升，可能是以定价上的让步为代价的： 动力电池毛利率同比下降1.78个百分点，恰与国内份额从43.42%（2025全年）反弹至46.7%（2026H1）同步发生。　　在一定程度上，这说明其份额的维持越来越依赖价格策略。　　那么，除了价格策略，宁王的技术优势有被削弱了吗？　　从产品参数看，宁德时代的技术领先度在行业内没有直接对标的竞品。第三代神行超充电池具备等效10C、峰值15C的超充能力，10%充至98%仅需6分27秒，1000次完整循环后容量保持率超90%；在零下30℃环境下仍可在9分钟内从20%充至98%。第三代麒麟电池能量密度达280Wh/kg，系统较同级磷酸铁锂方案减重255kg。麒麟凝聚态电池将航空级技术降维应用于乘用车，电芯能量密度350Wh/kg。　　固态电池方面，公司明确2027年有望实现全固态电池小批量生产，产能约5GWh，能量密度500Wh/kg。但董事长曾毓群表态，全固态电池技术成熟度仅达九级中的第四级，“2030年前实现百万辆级大规模装车可能性很小”。首席科学家吴凯披露，2027年预计达到7-8级水平，仅能小批量试产。　　这意味着现有液态锂电池的技术竞争仍是未来五年的主战场，二线厂商有足够时间追赶。　　来自客户端的挑战也是宁王需要面对的问题。　　2026年以来，长期由宁德时代独供的问界品牌宣布引入中创新航、国轩高科两家二线供应商。小米汽车发布自研品牌“龙甲电池”，澎程系列全系搭载，电芯由中创新航和欣旺达供应，宁德时代缺席。合作十年的理想汽车宣布推出自研电池，销冠车型i6换代后将全部采用自研电池，不再有宁德时代版本；理想以26.5亿元增资欣旺达动力，新一代L8全系切换欣旺达电芯。　　有机构认为，宁王的成本优势还在，但面临的挑战也在不断增加。　　东吴证券测算， 宁德时代与二线电池企业的成本差异为0.05—0.06元/Wh，来源包括原材料采购、制造成本、良率和产能利用率等多维度积累。单Wh盈利方面，宁德时代约0.09元，亿纬锂能约0.02元，国轩高科盈亏平衡，欣旺达动储亏损约0.08元/Wh，龙头与二线差距维持在8-10个百分点。　　这一差距说明二线企业开始亏损时，宁德时代仍能维持正利润，但二线厂商在同等电量电池包报价上已具备竞争力。　　宁德时代过去的高盈利建立在“车企没有替代选项”的基础上，然而当前车企集体推动供应链多元化，宁德时代或许需要用更低的报价来维持份额，这将压缩毛利率空间。　　笔者以为，股价从5月高点467.34元回撤至现在的286元，反映的是市场对宁王市场份额和“定价权”的担忧，对其未来持续强盈利能力的不安。　　当然，市场的下跌往往是非理性的。宁德时代短期内没有被单一对手全面超越的迹象，但它的 “不可替代性”或许正在变弱。而投资者的“抄底”，可能需要等它的极度缩量，不再创新低。　　本文中的市场分析、预测等内容仅代表作者观点，不构成对读者的投资建议。投资者应根据自身风险承受能力做出独立判断。（文章来源：IPO日报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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