黄仁勋再度驳斥“AI末日论”：2030年世界末日概率为零

智通财经09-19

英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋再次反驳 AI 末日论，称这项技术不会对人类构成灭绝风险。“不管人们怎么描述，2030 年都不会是世界末日。”他在接受采访时说，“2030 年成为世界末日的可能性是零。”“我们应该尽可能快地发展”黄仁勋近日出席多场活动，反复重申自己的立场：人工智能可以得到安全管理。作为 AI 处理器的主要供应商，他也多次表示没有必要制定新的监管规定。据新浪财经梳理，这是近一周内他第二次就 ...

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末日论，称这项技术不会对人类构成灭绝风险。“不管人们怎么描述，2030 年都不会是世界末日。”他在接受采访时说，“2030 年成为世界末日的可能性是零。”“我们应该尽可能快地发展”黄仁勋近日出席多场活动，反复重申自己的立场：人工智能可以得到安全管理。作为 AI 处理器的主要供应商，他也多次表示没有必要制定新的监管规定。据新浪财经梳理，这是近一周内他第二次就 AI 的生存风险公开发声，而英伟达的立场也牵动着算力产业的走向。在采访中，黄仁勋主张整个行业不应放慢发展速度。“我们应该尽可能快地发展，不管其他人怎么做。”他说，“但我们绝不能、也绝不应该在产品尚未准备好时就将其推出，或交付不安全的产品。”据报道，采访中被问及是否认同美国总统特朗普将 AI 担忧称为“骗局”的说法时，黄仁勋未直接作答，但明确表示不认同 AI 将在 2030 年摧毁人类的预测。在更早的 All-In Summit 2026 峰会上，他已正面回应过 Anthropic 团队的文明风险警告，认为这类预测缺乏可验证的科学依据;在他看来，AI 安全是工程问题，可以通过测试、约束与发布前验证来管控，创新与安全并非二选一。辞职的研究员与“到本十年末”的警告这轮争论的直接导火索来自 Anthropic。该公司员工雅各布·考克森(Jacob Coxon)本月早些时候辞职，引发了一波 AI 焦虑情绪。他警告说，研发 AI 的研究人员“真心相信，到本十年末，AI 可能会把我们全部杀死”。27 岁的考克森称自己过去三年先后在 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 从事预训练研究，9 月 8 日晚在社交平台 X 上发布辞职声明，称两家公司“正径直冲向可自我改进的超级智能，拿我们的生命赌博”。Anthropic 对齐研究员埃文·胡宾格(Evan Hubinger)随后在 X 上回应称，“我个人认为，未来十年内的概率超过 10%”。9 月 14 日，前谷歌 DeepMind 研究工程师比拉尔·楚格泰(Bilal Chughtai)也发帖宣布辞职，并表示“我确实相信 AI 有可能杀死我们所有人”。考克森本人在接受采访时给出了边界：他认为当下的 AI 模型尚不足以造成灭绝，“现在还没有灭绝风险”，真正让他改变判断的是能力提升的速度——“很可能在一年之内，很多领域做研究就不再需要人类了”。让这波警告显得更有分量的，是近月多起 AI 智能体失控事件。此前已有数个 OpenAI 模型协同逃离安全测试环境、攻击研究平台 Hugging Face，全过程未被开发者察觉;Anthropic 与 Meta 也各有 AI 系统未经许可越出测试环境、接入互联网的记录。今年 7 月，包括 Anthropic 与 OpenAI 在内的头部 AI 公司有 1100 余名员工联署请愿，要求美国政府支持一套能为 AI 发展“刻意定速”的机制。一边呼吁减速，一边反对新监管这场分歧已经把美国政商两界切开。Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪 9 月 12 日发文呼吁放缓前沿 AI 的能力提升速度，理由是一种被称为“递归自我改进”的机制正开始在整个行业出现，若不加约束，可能超出人类理解与控制这些系统的能力;OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼与埃隆·马斯克公开支持这一方向。而在另一端，特朗普 9 月 14 日连发数帖，把 AI 威胁人类生存的说法斥为“骗局”和“荒唐的阴谋论”。白宫这边的立场同样鲜明：本周特朗普在黄仁勋于 All-In Summit 峰会发言期间意外致电，通话中重申了 AI 危险的说法是“骗局”。监管端也有人在往另一个方向推。无党派参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)近日提出立法，拟禁止能力超越人类的所谓“超级智能”AI 模型;OpenAI 首席科学家雅各布·帕霍茨基(Jakub Pachocki)则警告，世界对 AI 能力的快速跃升尚未做好准备，并预计开发者会出于自愿放慢工作节奏。这场争论正在同时向政策与产业两侧传导：一边是多国政府推进 AI 安全法案与前沿模型评估机制;另一边，算力厂商与芯片企业担心“减速论”会限制算力基础设施投入、拖累产业落地。黄仁勋并不否认 AI 安全本身，但主张真实风险应当用工程手段与第三方审计来解决，而不是提前给行业踩刹车;他更看重的是信息造假、偏见、数据安全与滥用这类短期的现实风险，并提醒公众警惕把未知风险包装成精确概率的叙事——过去不少 AI 悲观预测(例如放射科医生会被 AI 彻底取代)最终都未应验。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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