泡泡玛特的IP故事还能讲多久？

三里河09-14

潮玩行业的本质从来不是依赖某一个IP的永恒流行，而是持续制造下一个爆款的能力。　　LABUBU降温、星星人接棒，管理层主动降速，潮玩龙头进入经营调整年？　　对多数消费企业而言，171.73亿元营收、23.8%同比增长、50.38亿元归母净利润，足以支撑一份亮眼的半年报。　　近日，泡泡玛特交出的这份2026年半年报，放在任何消费行业都堪称亮眼。　　但泡泡玛特未能说服资本市场。次日开盘股价一度暴跌超...

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href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202609143873712178.html><strong>三里河</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>潮玩行业的本质从来不是依赖某一个IP的永恒流行，而是持续制造下一个爆款的能力。　　LABUBU降温、星星人接棒，管理层主动降速，潮玩龙头进入经营调整年？　　对多数消费企业而言，171.73亿元营收、23.8%同比增长、50.38亿元归母净利润，足以支撑一份亮眼的半年报。　　近日，泡泡玛特交出的这份2026年半年报，放在任何消费行业都堪称亮眼。　　但泡泡玛特未能说服资本市场。次日开盘股价一度暴跌超...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202609143873712178.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PMRTY","symbol_name":"Pop Mart International Group 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MONSTERS系列上半年收入44.54亿元，仍居第一，但同比下滑7.5%，收入占比从去年同期的34.7%降至26%。这是LABUBU成为超级IP以来首次出现收入同比下滑。　　二级市场的信号更为直接。今年6月25日，LABUBU“复古理发店”系列盲盒上线，作为曾经的潮玩顶流，LABUBU系列向来以发售即秒空、二级市场大幅溢价著称，然而本次新品却一改往日盛况，多款常规款式上市后迅速跌破官方发行价，出现罕见的“破发”现象。　　星星人接棒，但海外仍是问号。　　LABUBU的缺口正在被新IP填补。2024年才推出首套产品的星星人，上半年实现收入26.5亿元，同比增长超580%，跃居IP收入榜第二。CRYBABY、DIMOO、SKULLPANDA均取得15亿元以上营收。　　IP结构确实在趋于健康，LABUBU占比已降至26%，对单一IP的依赖度有所下降。　　一个现实的问题是星星人的爆发能否持续？西方市场对星星人的接受度远不及LABUBU，而海外恰恰是泡泡玛特下一阶段增长的关键战场。一个在国内市场被验证的IP，未必能在全球复制LABUBU的奇迹。　　泡泡玛特首席运营官司德坦言，去年大量因社交媒体热潮而来的“流量型用户”正在流失。海外用户与团队均不成熟，当爆发期结束，积累不足导致流量回落和销售回撤。　　面对这一局面，泡泡玛特创始人王宁选择主动承认。　　他在业绩会上直言：“今年大概率完不成年初既定的20%增长目标。”公司将2026年定位为“经营调整年”，销售增长不再是首要目标。　　这种坦诚在企业家身上并不多见，但资本市场并不买账。知名投资人段永平说“我不在乎短期的东西”，可大多数投资者在乎。当一家高增长公司主动宣布“完不成目标”，估值重新定价便不可避免。　　纵观整个情绪经济发展规律，泡泡玛特的故事还能讲多久，取决于三个问题的答案。　　第一，IP制造能力能否持续？ 星星人的崛起证明了泡泡玛特的IP孵化机制并非依赖单一运气，但从3.9亿元到26.5亿元的爆发式增长之后，它能否保持长效生命力，仍是未知数。　　第二，海外市场能否重新起飞？海外收入下滑几乎全部来自线上渠道的退潮，而非线下门店的收缩。随着海外门店拓展至约200家规模，线下渠道能否接住线上流失的流量，是全球化故事能否继续的关键。　　第三，管理层主动降速的战略能否换来更健康的增长？王宁将2026年比作赛车“进站换轮胎”。这场调整能否让泡泡玛特跑得更远，需要时间验证。　　LABUBU的热度正在褪去，但泡泡玛特的故事并未终结。潮玩行业的本质从来不是依赖某一个IP的永恒流行，而是持续制造下一个爆款的能力。　　从这个意义上说，LABUBU的降温恰恰是检验泡泡玛特真正成色的时刻，它究竟是一家靠运气爆红的公司，还是一套能够持续产出全球级IP的系统？（文章来源：三里河）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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