新湖期货：海运费大幅推高原油到岸成本

市场资讯17:29

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　　文：新湖能源分析师（原油沥青）严丽丽

　　受地缘冲突加剧影响，沙特东西输油管道（运输能力高达700万桶/日，其中200万桶/日输送至延布港炼厂）遭袭击，目前处于关停状态。今年3-7月，因霍尔木兹海峡出口量骤降，沙特曾通过东西管道经由延布港至曼德海峡，维持350-400万桶/日的原油出口量。然而，自7月底胡塞武装袭击沙特油轮以来，沙特经由曼德海峡的出口量逐渐下滑，部分原油被迫改道至北向苏伊士管道，但受限于该管道80万桶/日的管输瓶颈，沙特东西管道的整体出口量已显著下降。即便如此，此次管道遇袭关停，也进一步加剧了供应紧张。与此同时，原定于周一举行的海湾国家地区会议（旨在讨论推动海峡通行协议），也因管道遇袭事件被突然推迟，市场避险情绪升温。近两日中东至中国的海运费已由前期的18-20美元/桶飙升至27-28美元/桶（正常情况下该航线运费仅为1-2美元/桶），大幅推高了到岸成本。从采购情绪来说，当前中国市场的采购热情较高。

　　需警惕的是，尽管盘面火热，国内主营炼厂的开工率已连续两周出现下降，高油价对下游需求的负反馈正在显现。目前，外盘油价已站稳100美元/桶关口，SC2610合约也逼近900元/桶大关。在极端的地缘溢价与高升水背景下，需高度警惕短线剧烈波动风险，操作上建议谨慎追高，注意控制仓位。

新浪合作大平台期货开户安全快捷有保障

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