区区0.1%，9家投行连夜改口

格隆汇09-12

在8月强劲CPI数据的急风骤雨下，华尔街集体连夜改口，市场预期美联储9月加息的概率直接狂飙至近90%。但资产反而走出利空出尽的走势：美股与黄金在短暂下探后快速反弹，10年期美债收益率逼近5%关口后拐头回落，2年期美债收益率上行。这究竟是怎么样一份CPI数据，打得市场如此措手不及。其实美国8月的CPI数据整体符合预期，最大引爆点在于核心CPI的0.3%环比涨幅，超过市场预期的0.2%。区区0.1个...

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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/6623084><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在8月强劲CPI数据的急风骤雨下，华尔街集体连夜改口，市场预期美联储9月加息的概率直接狂飙至近90%。但资产反而走出利空出尽的走势：美股与黄金在短暂下探后快速反弹，10年期美债收益率逼近5%关口后拐头回落，2年期美债收益率上行。这究竟是怎么样一份CPI数据，打得市场如此措手不及。其实美国8月的CPI数据整体符合预期，最大引爆点在于核心CPI的0.3%环比涨幅，超过市场预期的0.2%。区区0.1个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/6623084\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE0002270589.USD","symbol_name":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) 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overnight.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GSX":0.6,"GS":1.9,"GSIB":0.6,"RY":1.85},"content_text":"在8月强劲CPI数据的急风骤雨下，华尔街集体连夜改口，市场预期美联储9月加息的概率直接狂飙至近90%。但资产反而走出利空出尽的走势：美股与黄金在短暂下探后快速反弹，10年期美债收益率逼近5%关口后拐头回落，2年期美债收益率上行。这究竟是怎么样一份CPI数据，打得市场如此措手不及。其实美国8月的CPI数据整体符合预期，最大引爆点在于核心CPI的0.3%环比涨幅，超过市场预期的0.2%。区区0.1个百分点，杀伤力为何如此瘆人？说白了，美国CPI通胀粘性担忧再起的关键是：能源价格反弹叠加核心服务通胀韧性驱动。8月CPI能源分项环比增长2.1%，重新由负转正，汽油和燃油价格环比均显著反弹。8月核心通胀的超预期是由多个服务价格上涨造成的，包括机票价格大幅反弹2.7%，通信成本上涨2.3%，住宅和交通服务价格也稳健增长，显示出美国本土的内生性通胀压力依然非常顽固。更为重要的是，本周油价突破重回100美元，较8月91美元/桶的均价大增16%，将对下游产品和服务价格起到支撑作用。若9月内油价不明显回落，能源价格对美国本月通胀的拉动会更显著。这也符合美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议讲话提到的：“如果我们无法确信潜在通胀正明确且以足够快的速度向目标靠拢，我们就有工作要做”的评判标准。且8月核心CPI环比数据是在6月0.0%、7月0.2%之后连续第三个月抬升，叠加8月非农数据“爆表”，加息是顺理成章的事。相反，如果不加息，沃什8月讲话将成为全世界的笑话，美联储的公信力将被严重损害，届时美长债利率的飙升，或许就彻底摁不住了。这份CPI数据更是给华尔街带来巨大震撼，成功迫使原本不相信9月会加息的高盛、摩根大通、富国、德银等9家投行，集体认输，数据发布当晚连夜改口：9月将加息。如今，加息在华尔街形成了压倒性的绝对共识：德意志银行：修改预测为9月加息75BPS。高盛：修改预测为9月加息25BPS。摩根大通：修改预测为9月加息25BPS。MPAMacro：修改预测为9月加息50BPS。三菱日联：修改预测为9月加息50BPS。野村证券：修改预测为9月加息50BPS。PiperSandler：修改预测为9月加息50BPS。加拿大皇家银行：修改预测为9月加息75BPS。高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle在9月11日的研报中明确表示，该行现在预计美联储将在9月会议上加息25个基点，此前预测为按兵不动。但高盛仍不愿完全改口，认为经济基本面仍不支持加息，但美联储的信誉考量是关键点。报告指出，沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的偏鹰派讲话，已引导市场预期\"若通胀数据不够完美则加息\"，而8月CPI虽未令人担忧，但确实\"不够完美\"，在此背景下，若美联储选择按兵不动，可能损害市场对其政策可信度的认知，并引发长端利率的即时反应。“但我们怀疑大多数FOMC参与者会担心，如果不实施加息，市场可能会出现反应，而最近联邦储备局的沟通已引导市场几乎完全计价了这一点。主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔的演讲让市场预期，如果通胀数据不尽理想就会加息，虽然CPI数据并不令人担忧，但确实不尽理想。”但出人意料的是，美股居然没被板上钉钉的加息预期吓到，反而上演凌厉反转的剧本，美股结束四连跌，标普500涨0.86%，道指涨0.98%，纳指涨0.96%。反常的背后是因为利率上行对于权益资产的影响主要是分母端的估值。如果市场确信分子端上行速度大于分母端，股价逆风上行的可能性是存在的。兴业证券在报告中指出，历史经验看，当处于一段由大的产业趋势引领的行情时，如果分子端足够强劲，仍然能够一定程度上对冲无风险利率上行的冲击。事实上，7月以来，全球进入AI产业叙事的空窗期，包括token价格在内的高频数据大多处于高位震荡状态，市场仍在等待类似年初Agent的新叙事。A股资金同样选择在周五大跌中“越跌越买”，宽基ETF显著放量，科创50ETF华夏、沪深300ETF华泰柏瑞、通信ETF国泰、科创50ETF易方达净流入额居前。(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）但美联储9月是不是真的加息还不好说，毕竟沃什太有个性了，尤其反感看市场的脸色行事。不过一场市场早已充分定价、且认为确有必要的加息真落地后，反而有助于市场恢复稳定。这场“CPI风暴”看似只是一次数据超预期引发的预期修正，实则折射出当前全球市场更深层的博弈逻辑——通胀尚未彻底驯服，政策信誉与产业基本面之间仍在拉扯博弈，而资产接下来需要做的是：在利率逆风与产业趋势之间，寻找新的平衡点。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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