EIA上调今明两年油价预测，中东供应预计到2027年二季度才接近战前水平

环球市场播报09-10

美国能源信息署上调2026年和2027年原油价格预测，将今年布伦特原油和WTI原油均价分别调至每桶91.01美元和84.65美元。EIA预计，中东石油生产和贸易流量最快到2027年第二季度才会大体恢复至冲突前平均水平。　　四项年度油价预测均获上调　　EIA在9月9日发布的《短期能源展望》中，将2026年布伦特原油现货均价预测由每桶86.81美元上调至91.01美元，增幅约4.8%；WTI现货...

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Bear 2X ETF","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF","EIA":"Eaton Vance California Municip","BWET":"BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF","SPXT":"ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF","PEJ":"INVESCO LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","BK4588":"碎股","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X ETF","SDOG":"ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","TPOR":"Direxion Daily Transportation Bull 3X ETF"},"translate_title":"The EIA has raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, with Middle East supply not expected to approach pre-war levels until the second quarter of 2027.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WEEI":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"XES":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"VOOV":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"SPXT":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"USE":1.5,"PEJ":1.5,"PXJ":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"USL":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"EIA":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"TPOR":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"UAE":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"SDOG":1.5,"XLEX":1.5,"BWET":1.5,"DUG":1.5},"content_text":"美国能源信息署上调2026年和2027年原油价格预测，将今年布伦特原油和WTI原油均价分别调至每桶91.01美元和84.65美元。EIA预计，中东石油生产和贸易流量最快到2027年第二季度才会大体恢复至冲突前平均水平。\n\n　　四项年度油价预测均获上调\n　　EIA在9月9日发布的《短期能源展望》中，将2026年布伦特原油现货均价预测由每桶86.81美元上调至91.01美元，增幅约4.8%；WTI现货均价预测由80.88美元上调至84.65美元，增幅约4.7%。\n　　2027年布伦特原油均价预测由69.39美元上调至73.74美元，增幅约6.3%；WTI均价预测由65.39美元上调至69.74美元，增幅约6.7%。\n　　EIA仍预计2027年油价低于2026年。按照其基准情景，随着中东出口逐步增加、停产产能恢复及全球库存重新积累，布伦特原油均价将从2026年的91.01美元降至2027年的73.74美元。\n　　中东停产规模8月升至每日670万桶\n　　EIA估计，中东地区原油停产量8月平均达到每日670万桶，高于7月的每日500万桶。霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡运输受限，令部分产油国难以把原油运出该地区。\n　　沙特经红海沿岸延布港出口的石油数量8月较7月下降约一半。沙特随后增加通过苏伊士运河的运输，但这条线路距离更长，对亚洲客户的运输成本也更高。\n　　EIA假设中东石油运输限制将在2026年第四季度持续，届时区域停产量预计平均为每日570万桶。管道、公路运输及船对船转运等替代方式将帮助出口逐渐恢复，但短期内难以完全弥补主要海上通道受阻造成的缺口。\n　　多数生产和贸易流量最快明年二季度恢复\n　　EIA预计，如果其运输和供应假设成立，中东多数石油生产及贸易流量要到2027年第二季度才能回到冲突前平均水平。部分波斯湾产油国在整个预测期内可能仍无法完全恢复原有产量。\n　　随着出口增加和停产产能重新启动，EIA预计布伦特原油均价将在2027年第二季度降至每桶77美元。多数停产产能预计于2027年下半年恢复，全球石油库存也将重新增长，布伦特原油在当年下半年的平均价格可能进一步降至每桶67美元。\n　　相关判断属于基准预测。EIA指出，霍尔木兹海峡和其他替代通道的流量仍会随冲突变化而波动，短期油价的实际振幅可能高于模型所显示的水平。\n　　库存下降支撑年内价格\n　　EIA估计，2026年以来全球石油库存已减少约4亿桶。第二季度库存平均每天减少390万桶，预计第三季度和第四季度还将分别平均每天减少300万桶和170万桶。\n　　库存持续消耗使原油市场对新的供应中断更加敏感。EIA预计，2026年下半年布伦特原油现货均价约为每桶90美元，比上月预测高出8美元。\n　　9月9日，布伦特原油结算价升至每桶101.21美元，WTI原油报96.05美元。当天价格已经高于EIA的年度均价预测。\n　　EIA此次预测所采用的模型输入于9月3日完成，因此没有具体计入此后发生的油轮袭击及布伦特原油再次突破100美元等事件。若后续冲突进一步影响生产设施或运输通道，10月发布的新一期预测可能重新调整供应和价格假设。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.50.1","shortVersion":"4.50.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2666507225","isCrawlerRequest":true}