天风·AI投研 | 整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续

天风研究09-07 07:36

1、权益市场：整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续。2、债券市场：利率模型延续看多。3、贵金属市场：金银持续走弱，调整压力延续。

1、权益市场：整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续

从全周行业聚类表现看，国防军工、传媒、农林牧渔、银行等板块录得一定涨幅，有色、非金属材料等板块跌幅较大，市场结构分化特征较为明显。

主线轮动模型仍将通信、电子、计算机、有色、煤炭列为前五，科技主线地位延续。行业择时中，传媒由走弱转为看多，国防军工、农林牧渔、银行等维持看多，与聚类涨幅表现形成印证。

宽基择时方面，上证50、中证2000、上证指数继续维持看多，而沪深300、中证500、中证1000、科创50、创业板指则转入或延续走弱，整体观点由此前偏多转为震荡，指数间分化有所加大。总体来看，科技行业主线依然稳固，权益市场或进入震荡区间。

2、债券市场：利率模型延续看多

利率短期与中期模型本周继续维持看多观点，观点稳定性较强，多头格局延续。尽管市场存在短期波动，利率下行趋势尚未改变。

3、贵金属市场：金银持续走弱，调整压力延续

黄金、白银择时观点本周连续维持走弱，行情表现上，周中虽有反弹，但整体仍呈下行趋势，模型观点与价格走势相互印证，贵金属市场短期调整压力尚未解除。

风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型稳定性风险，数据质量风险。

点击以下小程序链接

阅读报告原文

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2665919863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-09-07 07:36","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","id":"2665919863","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"天风·AI投研 | 整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续","media":"天风研究","content":"<html><body><div><p><strong><span leaf=\"\"><img/><img/><img/><img/><img/></span></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2cc75e3722a421baaae50c53f7d7b05\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f8a9d6f3f44f7d934ec753825d0efa\"/></p><p><sdt docpart=\"31BC7FF5CA7A4D48A87435B426A4436B\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><p><span leaf=\"\"></span><sdt docpart=\"31BC7FF5CA7A4D48A87435B426A4436B\" para=\"\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><span><sdt docpart=\"31BC7FF5CA7A4D48A87435B426A4436B\" mpa-font-style=\"mav6v8k2y17\" para=\"\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><p><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">1、权益市场：</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">。</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">2、债券市场：利率模型延续看多。</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">3、贵金属市</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">场：</span></span><b><span leaf=\"\" para=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">金银持续走弱，调整压力延续。</span></span></b></p></sdt></span></sdt></p></sdt></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce15d6884f014850a1ce7b2fd72f7c5b\"/></p><p><b><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">1</span></span></span></b><b><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、权益市场：整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续</span></span></b></p><p><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">从全周行业聚类表现看，国防军工、传媒、农林牧渔、银行等板块录得一定涨幅，有色、非金属材料等板块跌幅较大，市场结构分化特征较为明显。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">主线轮动模型仍将通信、电子、计算机、有色、煤炭列为前五，科技主线地位延续。行业择时中，传媒由走弱转为看多，国防军工、农林牧渔、银行等维持看多，与聚类涨幅表现形成印证。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">宽基择时方面，上证</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">50</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、中证</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">2000</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、上证指数继续维持看多，而沪深</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">300</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、中证</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">500</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、中证</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">1000</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、科创</span></span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">50</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、创业板指则转入或延续走弱，整体观点由此前偏多转为震荡，指数间分化有所加大。总体来看，科技行业主线依然稳固，权益市场或进入震荡区间。</span></span></p><p><b><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">2</span></span></span></b><b><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、债券市场：利率模型延续看多</span></span></b></p><p><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">利率短期与中期模型本周继续维持看多观点，观点稳定性较强，多头格局延续。尽管市场存在短期波动，利率下行趋势尚未改变。</span></span></p><p><b><span lang=\"EN-US\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">3</span></span></span></b><b><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">、贵金属市场：金银持续走弱，调整压力延续</span></span></b></p><p><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">黄金、白银择时观点本周连续维持走弱，行情表现</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">上，</span></span></span><span arial=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">周中虽有反弹，但整体仍呈下行趋势，模型观点与价格走势相互印证，贵金属市场短期调整压力尚未解除。</span></span></p><p><sdt docpart=\"CCBF7952017C42FFA6347BD52C811831\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><p><sdt docpart=\"EB2EDEFBDA4941868F7D54515AFD878A\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><p><sdt docpart=\"8BC0433A2E88422490E544E68512DA6C\" sdttag=\"BDCONTENTCONTROL_AUTO_SAVE_Summary\" title=\"摘要\"><p><strong><span leaf=\"\">风险提示</span></strong><strong><span leaf=\"\">：</span><span><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">市场环境变动风险，模型稳定性风险，数据质量风险。</span></span></span><span><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" mp-quote=\"\" mpa-font-style=\"mmhsz7bl62w\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"></span></span></strong></p></sdt></p></sdt></p></sdt></p><p><sdt docpart=\"8BC0433A2E88422490E544E68512DA6C\" 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href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMzIzNzcwMg==&mid=2649154389&idx=6&sn=26d6eef91786c4b47c2c378465946632&chksm=825a83980addcd0ac1c13f4b74a5895f6af19a2aa3efe8138330201d83d77e5add0399873ed0&scene=0#rd><strong>天风研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1、权益市场：整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续。2、债券市场：利率模型延续看多。3、贵金属市场：金银持续走弱，调整压力延续。1、权益市场：整体择时转入震荡，科技主线地位延续从全周行业聚类表现看，国防军工、传媒、农林牧渔、银行等板块录得一定涨幅，有色、非金属材料等板块跌幅较大，市场结构分化特征较为明显。主线轮动模型仍将通信、电子、计算机、有色、煤炭列为前五，科技主线地位延续。行业择时中，传媒由走弱...</p>\n\n<a 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AI Investment Research | Overall market timing shifts to volatility, technology continues its leading 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