783只个股缺席两年牛市，万科、五粮液、迈瑞医疗等昔日大白马在列

第一财经09-06 16:18

2026.09．06 　　作者 | 第一财经魏中原　　“9·24”行情启动即将满两年。Wind数据显示，2024年9月24日至最新收盘日，剔除78只ST、*ST风险警示股后，沪深两市仍有783只个股录得下跌，占全市场5557只个股的比例为14.09%。　　这批股票并不都是绩差小盘股。万科A（000002.SZ）区间跌幅53.25%，洋河股份（002304.SZ）跌40.79%，长安汽车（...

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| 第一财经 魏中原 \n　　“9·24”行情启动即将满两年。Wind数据显示，2024年9月24日至最新收盘日，剔除78只ST、*ST风险警示股后，沪深两市仍有783只个股录得下跌，占全市场5557只个股的比例为14.09%。\n　　这批股票并不都是绩差小盘股。万科A（000002.SZ）区间跌幅53.25%，洋河股份（002304.SZ）跌40.79%，长安汽车（...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2026-09-06/doc-iniqwssv0027987.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999002562.SGD","symbol_name":"LionGlobal Asia Pacific SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2026-09-06/doc-iniqwssv0027987.shtml","article_id":"2665361404","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2026-09-06/doc-iniqwssv0027987.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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| 第一财经 魏中原 \n　　“9·24”行情启动即将满两年。Wind数据显示，2024年9月24日至最新收盘日，剔除78只ST、*ST风险警示股后，沪深两市仍有783只个股录得下跌，占全市场5557只个股的比例为14.09%。\n　　这批股票并不都是绩差小盘股。万科A（000002.SZ）区间跌幅53.25%，洋河股份（002304.SZ）跌40.79%，长安汽车（000625.SZ）与片仔癀（600436.SH）均跌超35%，长城汽车（601633.SH）、五粮液（000858.SZ）、迈瑞医疗（300760.SZ）等昔日大白马也在这份名单中。过去两年的多数交易日里，A股并不缺少赚钱效应，但这批公司至今没有回到两年前的起点。\n　　从行业分布看，783只股票高度集中在医药生物、汽车、电力设备三大板块。而本周以来，猪肉、白酒等前期持续被资金抛售的传统板块出现反弹，市场关注的问题也随之转向：这轮“老登”的反弹能走多远？\n　　783只股票缺席这轮牛市\n　　2024年9月24日以来，A股启动一轮上行行情，两年间指数中枢整体抬升。以当日为统计起点，至今有861只个股的股价低于起点，剔除78只被实施风险警示的ST、*ST个股后为783只。\n　　还需要区分的是，783只中约235只为2024年9月24日之后上市的次新股，其“区间涨跌幅”实际从上市首日算起，下跌主要来自新股估值回落，与“9·24”行情关联度较低。剔除这部分股票后，行情启动前已上市、至今仍在下跌的老股为548只。\n　　在这份名单里，最醒目的是过去几轮牛市的一批“核心资产”。白酒是2021年前后核心资产行情的主角之一，也曾是机构配置比例最高的板块。按申万二级行业划分，白酒行业共有15只个股处于下跌区间：口子窖（603589.SH）以43.75%的跌幅居首，洋河股份跌逾40%，五粮液跌28.95%，古井贡酒（000596.SZ）跌24.11%，山西汾酒（600809.SH）、泸州老窖（000568.SZ）的跌幅均超过12%。\n　　值得注意的是，贵州茅台（600519.SH）虽未出现在这份名单中，但其年初至今仍下跌1.14%。今年以来白酒板块延续调整，洋河股份年初至今跌32.34%，五粮液跌29.68%，泸州老窖、山西汾酒、古井贡酒均跌逾20%。\n　　2021年至2022年最受资金追捧的光伏、新能源赛道，同样在名单中占据重要位置。通威股份（600438.SH）年初至今跌44.49%，隆基绿能（601012.SH）跌35.33%，晶科能源（688223.SH）跌28.01%。以“9·24”行情起点计，光伏支架企业中信博（688408.SH）区间跌幅达61.92%，是光伏板块中跌幅最深的品种之一。组件商天合光能（688599.SH）在9月3日创下历史最低股价11.14元，年内累计下跌32.02%，较历史高点回撤86.8%。\n　　汽车板块的下跌与近年持续的价格竞争相伴。长安汽车、长城汽车、赛力斯（601127.SH）均跌超34%，广汽集团（601238.SH）跌29.30%。地产与消费龙头同样未能修复，万科A跌超53%，招商蛇口（001979.SZ）跌25.66%，片仔癀跌逾35%，上海莱士（002252.SZ）、迈瑞医疗等亦表现低迷。\n　　第一财经注意到，这份名单呈现出两个共同特征：一是下跌个股高度集中于过去两年供给过剩或需求端承压的行业；二是其中相当一部分公司的基本面尚未出现实质性修复，估值消化仍在进行。\n　　按申万一级行业划分，783只下跌个股中，医药生物以103只居首，汽车79只、电力设备66只、基础化工62只、机械设备57只、电子49只、计算机47只、轻工制造32只、食品饮料32只、传媒24只。医药生物、汽车、电力设备三个行业合计248只，占三成以上。以医药生物为例，下跌个股覆盖中药、医疗器械、体外诊断等多个细分环节，同仁堂（600085.SH）跌19.17%，新产业（300832.SZ）跌20.13%。\n　　下沉到申万二级行业，下跌个股的分布更为清晰：汽车零部件61只、医疗器械41只、化学制品31只、光伏设备25只、专用设备23只，化学制药与软件开发各21只，电网设备、家居用品、房地产开发各19只。汽车零部件与医疗器械两个细分行业合计102只，占下跌总数的13%。\n　　若看跌幅最深的品种，则集中于光伏设备、电池、电网设备、汽车零部件、医疗器械等领域：中信博跌近62%，医疗器械企业健尔康（603205.SH）跌57.44%，电池企业尚水智能（301513.SZ）跌56.25%，地产股中交发展（000736.SZ）、电网设备股三星电气（601567.SH）、汽车零部件股泰鸿万立（603210.SH）的跌幅都超过55%。\n　　从市值看，下跌个股中50亿至100亿元区间最集中，为208只；50亿元以下合计296只，两者相加占下跌股票总数的六成以上。但500亿元以上市值的公司也有64只，大市值股并不天然安全。\n　　跌幅分布上，跌10%以内的有291只，跌10%至30%的270只，跌30%至50%的157只，跌50%至70%的59只，跌超70%的6只。其中跌超50%的65只，投资者已不只是“被套牢”，以当前价格计算，需要上涨一倍以上才能回到起点。\n　　传统板块反弹：流动性回补还是基本面反转\n　　进入9月，传统行业个股的情况出现了些许变化。8月31日至9月4日的五个交易日里，前期持续低迷的部分传统板块出现反弹。\n　　按申万一级行业划分，9月以来，农林牧渔、商贸零售、银行、传媒、食品饮料五个指数的涨幅居前，农林牧渔月内上涨3.86%，为全行业第一。\n　　猪肉板块反弹幅度最大。天康生物（002100.SZ）、神农集团（605296.SH）近20日均涨超18%；温氏股份（300498.SZ）、新希望（000876.SZ）、牧原股份（002714.SZ）月内涨幅也都跑赢大盘。\n　　白酒板块同步回暖但幅度温和。古井贡酒五日涨7.74%、20日涨10.34%，山西汾酒五日涨2.97%，贵州茅台、泸州老窖与洋河股份也较此前明显上涨。家电与消费板块中，海尔智家（600690.SH）五日涨4.17%，中国中免（601888.SH）涨2.34%，美的集团（000333.SZ）涨1.55%。地产板块则呈现分化，万科A五日涨2.53%，保利发展（600048.SH）涨1.16%，招商蛇口跌2.65%。\n　　对于这轮反弹的原因，接受采访的一位券商分析师认为，传统行业经过长期下跌后筹码已明显出清，近期的反弹更接近一次流动性回补。过去一段时间资金集中流向科技板块，传统行业被持续抽血，一旦科技板块拥挤度上升，部分资金会回流到位置低、预期高的品种上。\n　　“超跌板块反弹的第一阶段通常不看基本面，看的是位置和筹码。5~6月科技主升浪虹吸市场资金时，传统行业连续超跌，筹码得到进一步出清。近两周，A股市场持续缩量，存量博弈的环境下，股价超跌、筹码干净、拉升阻力较小的传统行业成为存量博弈的首选。”一位华东地区私募基金经理对记者表示。\n　　不过，流动性回补并没有在所有传统板块上同步发生。光伏板块本周仍在下跌，说明资金对供需格局改善持谨慎预期。\n　　对于传统行业的后续行情，机构之间亦存在分歧。有观点认为，经过两年调整，部分传统行业的估值已较为充分地反映了悲观预期，机构仓位处于相对低位，估值具备修复空间；也有观点提示，传统行业在业绩拐点确认之前，缺乏盈利支撑的上涨更容易呈现脉冲特征。流动性回补能否转化为趋势性行情，最终仍取决于业绩预期。\n　　从2026年半年报看，上述板块的业绩拐点尚未出现。猪肉板块中，牧原股份上半年营业收入594.10亿元，同比下降22.30%，是近十年同期首次收入下滑，归母净利润亏损60.78亿元。新希望、温氏股份等龙头猪企中报也都录得巨额亏损。\n　　光伏板块仍处在2023年四季度以来的下行周期，通威股份、隆基绿能、TCL中环（002129.SZ）净利润已连亏11个季度。其中，通威股份上半年营业收入创下2021年以来同期最低，为343.57亿元，同比下降15.19%，归母净利润亏损51.19亿元。\n　　白酒板块更是一朝回到十年前，贵州茅台上半年归母净利润445.17亿元，同比下降1.95%，是近20年同期首次下滑；洋河股份营收规模跌至2016年同期水平，在上年同期同比减少35.32%的基础上，今年上半年进一步下降28.7%至105.40亿元，归母净利润26.02亿元，同比下降40.10%，为2012年以来新低；五粮液上半年归母净利润87.53亿元，同比增长89.30%，但这一增速建立在上年同期较低的基数之上。\n　　“股价可以先行于基本面，但不能长期脱离基本面。”前述券商分析师表示，在流动性回补推动的估值修复之后，市场仍需重新审视白酒、地产、消费的业绩何时出现实质性反转，这决定了本轮行情究竟是一轮修复，还是一次反弹。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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