马斯克想自己制造燃气轮机部件，但这绝非易事

环球市场播报09-02

叶片和导叶制造商的股价应声下跌，但来自马斯克的威胁仍然遥远埃隆·马斯克6月在纳斯达克市场网站通过视频连线在大型屏幕上讲话。　　只有少数几家公司能够制造AI数据中心亟需的燃气轮机关键部件。埃隆·马斯克想要自己生产这些部件。这让这个寡头垄断市场中的投资者感到不安。　　上周末，马斯克在X平台上确认，SpaceX将开始制造用于天然气燃气轮机的叶片和导叶。他在回应The Information的一篇...

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Castparts是该市场的两大巨头，这些部件还包括用于航空航天和国防领域的叶片和导叶。较小的参与者DPC的股价也受到冲击。\n　　现在将SpaceX视为威胁还为时过早。但Howmet Aerospace和DPC的股价或许早就该回调了：它们分别是AI领域最昂贵的“卖铲子”标的之一，远期市盈率分别达到42倍和45倍。轮机制造商GE Vernova和卡特彼勒的市盈率分别为33倍和26倍。\n　　DPC在该领域最易受到冲击。它规模较小，约40%的收入来自天然气轮机。而Howmet虽然占据全球天然气轮机部件市场约一半的份额，但其业务多元化，横跨航空航天和国防领域，仅有11%的收入来自燃气轮机。\n　　SpaceX将面临进入壁垒。该领域企业如此之少的原因之一在于，制造叶片在技术上极具挑战性，叶片必须承受极端温度和高速旋转。\n　　铸造过程每次都需要从零开始制作新的蜡模。据SemiAnalysis分析师Nigel Chiang称，制造这些部件需要在真空炉中将叶片“培育”成镍基高温合金单晶。他补充说，即使是杂散晶粒或发丝般的缺陷也意味着该部件必须报废。一条新的生产线可能在很长一段时间内报废超过一半的产品。\n　　这也是一个高度保密的过程。Howmet首席执行官John Plant在今年早些时候的一次投资者会议上表示，部件生产完成后，用于制造它们的陶瓷芯和蜡模都会被销毁。这防止了竞争对手进行逆向工程。\n　　如果SpaceX制造的部件是供自身使用，那么高报废率可能不那么重要。摩根士丹利的报告指出，“我们预计SpaceX不会成为叶片和导叶的重要外部供应商。”考虑到变化的AI电力负荷对燃气轮机可能产生的巨大压力，让xAI的数据中心拥有内部替换部件供应可能会很方便。\n　　SpaceX对发动机技术并不陌生；它自行设计和制造“相当大比例”的零部件。根据其首次公开募股文件，这些零部件包括火箭发动机和航空电子设备。\n　　据摩根士丹利报告，SpaceX计划中的铸造厂将为其猛禽火箭发动机的涡轮泵和燃气轮机制造单晶镍基高温合金部件。报告称，目前尚不清楚SpaceX是否已在为其猛禽涡轮泵铸造自己的叶片。\n　　即便如此，行业分析师估计，一座全新的工厂至少需要四年时间，这在AI世界中是一段很长的时间。据Chiang称，制造这些部件所需的专用真空炉的交货周期超过两年。\n　　招聘和培训人员也需要时间。据DPC称，关键岗位需要六个月到一年的培训，该公司技术人员（如工程师和冶金学家）的平均任期为9.5年。\n　　如果说有什么启示的话，马斯克的铸造厂计划恰恰凸显了这些叶片和导叶对AI基础设施建设的关键性。近期的股价回调为投资者提供了一个机会，思考他们愿意为这种市场权力付出什么代价。但这并不会削弱Howmet Aerospace和DPC的投资逻辑。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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