分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险

期货日报08-31 11:18

上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

靠天靠地不如靠自己__
08-31 23:15
靠天靠地不如靠自己__
最大的风险不是国际原油市场！而是国内原油市场炒作？

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2663725029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-08-31 11:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2663725029","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险","media":"期货日报","content":"<div>\n<p>上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"east_fut","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-31 11:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_BZ","symbol_name":"布油现金","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html","article_id":"2663725029","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"east_fut","url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2663725029","pubTimestamp":1788146316,"columns":[{"name":"原油","id":4,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"east_fut","name":"东方财富_期货"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"【分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险】受访人士均表示，全球原油供应持续减少已成定局，成品油市场逐渐进入淡旺季切换阶段。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"eastmoney.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"translate_title":"Analysts: Crude oil traders need to be wary of three major risks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":1.5,"USO":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"QMmain":1.5,"MCLmain":1.5,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"DUG":0.6},"content_text":"上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机资金涌入，近月合约涨幅远超远月合约，收益率曲线逐渐陡峭。　　格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏表示，宏观方面，美元指数涨跌也会影响油价，当前市场持续交易美联储9月加息预期，所以后续需重点关注美国非农就业数据和CPI变动。　　受访人士均表示，全球原油供应持续减少已成定局，成品油市场逐渐进入淡旺季切换阶段。　　孙伏鲲称，在霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航前，供应缺口与低库存仍是原油多头的“底牌”，油价易涨难跌。中长期来看，随着北半球夏季出行旺季步入尾声及全球经济复苏乏力，市场交易重心正向“需求预期”切换。IEA等机构已下调全年需求预期，高油价对需求的破坏作用显现。一旦地缘风险溢价被消化，疲弱的需求预期将成为驱动油价下行的核心力量。　　展望9月，王骏表示，需要重点关注中东局势，如果美伊和谈没有进展，随着全球战略石油储备下降至极低水平，亚洲炼厂补库和国内消费旺季来临，原油价格将维持高位震荡态势。若美伊谈判进展顺利，地缘风险溢价将消退，但在偏强的基本面支撑下，油价短期下行空间也有限。　　对普通交易者而言，孙伏鲲表示，在“低库存、高波动”的原油市场格局下，需警惕三大风险：一是爆仓风险，极端行情下反向波动易触发强平；二是流动性风险，在极端行情中可能出现点差扩大、无法平仓的情况；三是当地缘风险溢价被挤出后，盲目追多或恐慌杀跌，会面临极高行情反转风险。（文章来源：期货日报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":602766063161344,"gmtCreate":1788189325410,"gmtModify":1788189327349,"author":{"id":"3519789006914309","authorId":"3519789006914309","name":"靠天靠地不如靠自己__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e8c0335ae089b93f843db1140acf45","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3519789006914309","idStr":"3519789006914309"},"htmlText":"最大的风险不是国际原油市场！而是国内原油市场炒作？","listText":"最大的风险不是国际原油市场！而是国内原油市场炒作？","text":"最大的风险不是国际原油市场！而是国内原油市场炒作？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602766063161344","repostId":2663725029,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2663725029","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1788146316,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2663725029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-31 11:18","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2663725029","media":"期货日报","summary":"【分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险】受访人士均表示，全球原油供应持续减少已成定局，成品油市场逐渐进入淡旺季切换阶段。","content":"<div>\n<p>上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分析人士：原油交易者需警惕三大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-31 11:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202608313859891276.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2663725029","content_text":"上周，国际油价呈现高位震荡态势。库存方面，截至8月21日当周，美国商业原油库存为4.289亿桶，环比基本持平，同比增长2.5%；美国战略储备原油库存为2.897亿桶，环比减少1.26%，同比减少28.3%。　　“当前，原油市场定价逻辑转向地缘局势。”华源期货副总经理孙伏鲲在接受记者采访时表示，中东局势及霍尔木兹海峡通航情况主导油价走势，关键航道通航受阻导致油轮绕行、运费及保费飙升。原油期货市场投机资金涌入，近月合约涨幅远超远月合约，收益率曲线逐渐陡峭。　　格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏表示，宏观方面，美元指数涨跌也会影响油价，当前市场持续交易美联储9月加息预期，所以后续需重点关注美国非农就业数据和CPI变动。　　受访人士均表示，全球原油供应持续减少已成定局，成品油市场逐渐进入淡旺季切换阶段。　　孙伏鲲称，在霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航前，供应缺口与低库存仍是原油多头的“底牌”，油价易涨难跌。中长期来看，随着北半球夏季出行旺季步入尾声及全球经济复苏乏力，市场交易重心正向“需求预期”切换。IEA等机构已下调全年需求预期，高油价对需求的破坏作用显现。一旦地缘风险溢价被消化，疲弱的需求预期将成为驱动油价下行的核心力量。　　展望9月，王骏表示，需要重点关注中东局势，如果美伊和谈没有进展，随着全球战略石油储备下降至极低水平，亚洲炼厂补库和国内消费旺季来临，原油价格将维持高位震荡态势。若美伊谈判进展顺利，地缘风险溢价将消退，但在偏强的基本面支撑下，油价短期下行空间也有限。　　对普通交易者而言，孙伏鲲表示，在“低库存、高波动”的原油市场格局下，需警惕三大风险：一是爆仓风险，极端行情下反向波动易触发强平；二是流动性风险，在极端行情中可能出现点差扩大、无法平仓的情况；三是当地缘风险溢价被挤出后，盲目追多或恐慌杀跌，会面临极高行情反转风险。（文章来源：期货日报）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":1.5,"USO":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"QMmain":1.5,"MCLmain":1.5,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"DUG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2663725029","isCrawlerRequest":true}