急急急用电！马斯克开造燃气轮机叶片

量子位08-30

鱼羊发自凹非寺量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI夸张…为了搞AI，马斯克连燃气轮机叶片都要自个儿造了。都知道算力紧张，甭管是哪家AI大厂，都在想方设法搞卡搞机房。只是万万没想到，老马这回不是自建数据中心，也不是投资电厂解决电力瓶颈，而是一杵子干到了更更更基础的环节。据The Information消息，SpaceX正在德克萨斯州筹备燃气轮机叶片铸造工厂。相关招聘岗位已经挂在了SpaceX官网上。...

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Musk begins building gas turbine blades","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920189c3b2515e2224a112dec36408e2","symbols_score_info":{"LIT":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"WATS":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLA":1.85,"TSLY":0.6,"09766":0.6,"IDRV":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07766":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"ELOL":0.6,"TESC":0.6,"09366":0.6,"07366":0.6,"STSLAmain":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"SPCE":1.81,"TEST":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"WANT":0.6},"content_text":"鱼羊 发自 凹非寺量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI夸张…为了搞AI，马斯克连燃气轮机叶片都要自个儿造了。都知道算力紧张，甭管是哪家AI大厂，都在想方设法搞卡搞机房。只是万万没想到，老马这回不是自建数据中心，也不是投资电厂解决电力瓶颈，而是一杵子干到了更更更基础的环节。据The Information消息，SpaceX正在德克萨斯州筹备燃气轮机叶片铸造工厂。相关招聘岗位已经挂在了SpaceX官网上。消息一传开，马斯克本人迅速认领，还抛出了一个更夸张的数字：2027年制造出来的AI算力里，大约15GW可能当年根本开不了机。并且在电力供应不足背后，什么变压器、线路、液冷系统……通通都是问题。而燃气发电中燃气轮机的生产瓶颈，“就在于叶片和导叶的铸造”。将燃气轮机生产时间缩短18个月所以详细给大家盘一下马斯克这回的逻辑，就是：AI缺算力 → 建数据中心 → 数据中心缺电 → 搞太阳能发电。但目前来说，太阳能只能说是一个更长远的解决方案：SpaceX和特斯拉都在以最快速度建设每年100GW的太阳能生产能力，但在未来几年内，仍然需要天然气来补充和启动太阳能发电。老马可以画饼，AI这边可是急等着呢——SpaceX今年二季度预计，公司到2026年底就会有超过2GW算力在线；到2027年底，规模将接近10GW。为了把这些GPU跑起来，SpaceX甚至打算准备总计20GW的供电、冷却和电气基础设施项目。马斯克自己估计，即使其中四分之一延期，2027年底真正上线的发电能力仍可能接近15GW。问题是，就是自己部署燃气轮机，买起来也非！常！费！劲！燃气轮机巨头GE Vernova今年二季度披露：燃气轮机订单和产能预定已经达到116GW，预计年底至少达到125GW。公司已经签到了2031年的产能位置。其CEO此前也公开表示，预计2026年底，GE Vernova就会把2030年的产能卖光。继续往下拆解，就是马斯克自己说的，卡住燃气轮机产能的，是叶片——整台燃气轮机的其他组件，可以比叶片和导叶早12-18个月拿到。△AI生成缺啥就自己造啥，这很马斯克。他本人也再次放下狠话：通过在SpaceX内部进行铸造，我们可以将燃气轮机的上线时间提前18个月，这将带来意义深远的变革。AI基础设施竞争，已经不止于GPU咱就是说，没想到AI卷到2026，都给卷到材料科学+精密制造这一块了。但马斯克干这事儿倒也不能说是0基础。叶片和导叶处在超高温气流最先冲击的位置，需要同时承受高温，以及高速旋转带来的机械应力。这种铸造并不简单，好在SpaceX本身就有为Raptor火箭发动机制造极端工况下工作的涡轮机械的经验。另外，也有机智的网友已经联想到：算力需要电力，电力需要燃气轮机，燃气轮机需要铸造，而铸造成品率又是可以通过机器学习解决的问题。好家伙，又一是个左脚蹬右脚螺旋起飞的节奏（doge）。从目前的招聘情况来看，老马在德州Bastrop的这个“Blades and Vanes Foundry”，覆盖从航空航天与机械，到自动化与控制，再到运营、加工、材料各个环节的岗位，俨然是要往完整的精密铸造方向走。不过目前还没有证据证明，该铸造厂已经投产。△AI生成只能说，AI公司的垂直整合，已经不止于GPU、不止于数据中心了。就像马斯克所说，GPU、发电、电网设备、变压器、线缆、液冷、冷水机，以及网络……任何一个环节慢下来，都会影响到最终token的产出。现在，一片燃气轮机叶片，和一颗最新的AI芯片一样，都可能决定AI接下来有多少算力可用。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.53.0","shortVersion":"4.53.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2663468560","isCrawlerRequest":true}