软件板块相对芯片板块走出创纪录强势行情

环球市场播报08-25

软件股逼近历史高位。芯片板块仍处在熊市之中 —— 不过英伟达算是个例外，它并未真正陷入熊市。　　板块行情切换几乎就在同一天发生。　　芯片板块于 6 月 22 日见顶；软件板块恰好在同一时间探明底部，随后开启一场数万亿美元级别的行情反转，两大板块走势几乎完全背道而驰。　　如果剔除巨型市值巨头，两者走势的反差会更加惊人。等权版本的标普软件与服务 ETF（XSW）自该时点以来上涨约 24%；而等权...

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—— 不过英伟达算是个例外，它并未真正陷入熊市。\n　　板块行情切换几乎就在同一天发生。\n　　芯片板块于 6 月 22 日见顶；软件板块恰好在同一时间探明底部，随后开启一场数万亿美元级别的行情反转，两大板块走势几乎完全背道而驰。\n　　如果剔除巨型市值巨头，两者走势的反差会更加惊人。等权版本的标普软件与服务 ETF（XSW）自该时点以来上涨约 24%；而等权标普半导体 ETF（XSD）下跌约 24%。\n　　两者近 50 个百分点的收益差，是这两只 ETF 自 2011 年成立以来，软件相对芯片出现过的最大幅度跑赢记录。\n等权软件 ETF 大幅飙升，等权芯片 ETF 大幅下挫，两者创下接近 50 个百分点的历史最大差值。—— 雅虎财经 AlphaSpace\n　　这并非指数编制带来的假象。\n　　雅虎财经跟踪的 45 只软件成分股当中，自 6 月 22 日以来有 37 只股价走高；而 60 只芯片股里，有 59 只出现下跌。\n　　涉及的市值规模极其庞大。自行情切换以来，仅微软一家市值就增加了近 9000 亿美元。美光、台积电、安谋（Arm）与 AMD 合计市值蒸发约 9500 亿美元。\n　　整体对比来看，软件板块市值合计增加约 1.5 万亿美元，芯片板块合计蒸发约 2.6 万亿美元。\n　　Fundstrat 技术策略主管马克・牛顿认为，软件板块率先完成了回调出清。\n\n“软件板块已经经历过一轮调整，如今交易表现明显好转。”\n\n　　软件板块此前也曾出现过反弹，但行情再度消退。\n　　而这一轮情况有所不同。Salesforce 在 6 月 22 日见底；Adobe、ServiceNow 以及微软也在之后三个交易日内相继探底。美光则在 6 月 25 日见到阶段高点。\n　　更长周期的指数数据显示，这一轮板块切换实属罕见。\n　　从 6 月 22 日至上周五，标普北美科技软件指数上涨约 19%；费城半导体指数（SOXX）下跌约 20%。回溯至 1994 年的公开数据中，仅有互联网泡沫顶峰时期出现过更大的两个月差值，但当时软件、芯片两个板块是同步大涨。\n　　而这一次是软件上涨、芯片下跌，为史上首次出现该种级别的分化。\n　　再来看英伟达。\n　　英伟达周一走出 7 月以来最差单日表现，但在芯片板块整体转弱的这大约四个月里，该股基本横盘震荡。在多轮抛售过程中，英伟达走势更贴近大型科技巨头，而非周边的半导体板块。\n\n英伟达 4 月末就已经到达如今的股价水平。—— 雅虎财经 AlphaSpace\n\n　　这也让本周财报季看点十足。\n　　英伟达将于周三发布财报。在其他芯片股大幅走弱的四个月内，英伟达始终横盘抗跌，而这份财报将对它能否继续抵御板块抛售浪潮形成重大考验。\n　　不过牛顿并没有看空半导体板块。\n\n“你应当配置科技股。科技将引领市场，显然也是绝大多数盈利增长的来源。半导体板块终将卷土重来。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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