沃尔玛领衔零售财报来袭！美国消费若“降温但不失速”，“软着陆交易”有望再获积极燃料

智通财经08-18

8月18日，尽管汽油和食品价格高企，美国消费者今年以来依然展现出了令投资者们感到惊喜的消费者支出韧性。但高盛经济学家们警告称，这种强劲韧性可能很快就将面临考验。包括通胀以及零售销售额在内的最新公布的一组消费数据对于削减美联储加息预期乃至大幅提振美国经济“软着陆(Soft Landing)”前景而言堪称是边际利好，但前提是当前的放缓停留在“需求正常化”而不是滑向衰退。高盛资深经济学家Jan ...

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If US consumption \"cools down but does not stall\", the \"soft landing deal\" is expected to gain another positive fuel","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50aa1503800146ea9761872adcd1a6f2","symbols_score_info":{"PG":1.85,"TRUO":0.6,"HOMZ":0.6,"WMT":1.96,"TGT":1.89,"FSTA":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"WMTI":0.6,"LOW":1.85,"HD":1.85,"XLP":0.6,"PKB":0.6},"content_text":"8月18日，尽管汽油和食品价格高企，美国消费者今年以来依然展现出了令投资者们感到惊喜的消费者支出韧性。但高盛经济学家们警告称，这种强劲韧性可能很快就将面临考验。包括通胀以及零售销售额在内的最新公布的一组消费数据对于削减美联储加息预期乃至大幅提振美国经济“软着陆(Soft Landing)”前景而言堪称是边际利好，但前提是当前的放缓停留在“需求正常化”而不是滑向衰退。高盛资深经济学家Jan Hatzius领导的经济学家团队在最新报告中写道，第二季度面向消费者们的美国企业销售额保持健康增长。受高于原先计划的退税规模推动，标普500指数中的非必需消费品成分公司中位数基准的第二季度销售额同比增长5.9%，必需消费品企业中位数的销售额同比增长3.9%。消费者支出的强劲表现具有广泛性。对于同时面向低收入和高收入消费者的企业而言，同店销售额指标——零售行业的一项关键指标——均出现加速增长。与此同时，7月零售销售环比下降0.6%，为14个月最大跌幅，GDP核算关联度更高的控制组销售(Control-group Sales)下降0.4%;但其中确有Prime Day提前至6月、此前超额退税透支消费等技术性因素，而且二季度美国实际GDP仍按年率增长1.5%、个人消费支出则增长3.2%。Jan Hatzius领衔的高盛经济学家团队预计，下半年实际消费增速将降至1%—1.5%，本质上是从春季异常强劲的退税驱动状态回落至更可持续水平。本周将开启的这一轮以沃尔玛、塔吉特等零售巨头们业绩为核心的零售巨头财报季，是验证美国经济能否继续走向“软而不衰”式软着陆路径或经济轨迹的最重要微观窗口之一。退税红利退潮，美国消费支出马上要“降速”了?不过，前方已经出现阴云。Hatzius领衔的经济学家们写道：“我们预计未来消费者支出增长将较为疲弱。尽管上周五公布的7月零售销售下降，部分反映了Amazon Prime Day较往年提前举行所造成的负面影响，但经过修正后的环比路径如今已经更加符合我们的判断，即春季实际消费者支出的强劲表现，只是退税激增所带来的暂时性副产品。随着实际现金流陷入停滞，我们预计下半年实际消费者支出增速将放缓至1%—1.5%。”需要注意的一点是：美国经济第二季度按年化计算(即年化季率基准指标)仅增长1.5%，较第一季度2.1%的增速进一步放缓。尽管整体经济增速有所放缓，但个人消费者支出却加快至按年化基准计算增长3.2%，高于第一季度意外疲弱的0.5%，并成为底层私人国内需求的主要增长引擎。家庭支出同时受到商品和服务消费增长的推动，其中处方药、机动车以及餐饮服务支出的增长尤其明显。宝洁公司首席财务官Andre Schulten在7月下旬接受媒体节目采访时表示：“美国消费者们总体支出状况还不错，而且总体稳定。”不过，Schulten解释称，宝洁观察到不同收入群体消费者之间正在出现分化趋势。高收入消费者仍然愿意为宝洁最新推出的创新产品进行强劲消费支出;但那些依靠每月工资维持生活的低收入消费者，在补充日用品以及决定从货架上购买哪些商品时依然保持谨慎。高盛有关“下半年消费者支出放缓”的判断，将在本周接受来自家得宝Home Depot(HD.US)、Lowe's(LOW.US)，以及沃尔玛(WMT.US)与塔吉特(TGT.US)财报和业绩展望的重要检验。在所有这些公司中，沃尔玛与塔吉特业绩可能最受市场关注，尤其是其对第三季度的展望。德意志银行分析师Krisztina Katai在一份关于美国零售业超级巨头沃尔玛(Walmart)的报告中写道：“在消费者态度谨慎、同时促销活动可能更加频繁的背景下，要进一步实现超预期的销售额增长步伐可能会变得更加困难。”零售、就业与通胀三重降温，高盛押注9月不加息，“软着陆交易”再获燃料最新的这批经济与消费层面数据对美国“软着陆”是边际利好，但前提是当前的放缓停留在“需求正常化”而不是滑向衰退。对资产定价体系而言，最理想的结果恰恰不是零售“爆表”，而是“消费温和、盈利稳定”——这将最大程度强化软着陆并继续压制美联储鹰派加息交易。7月零售销售环比下降0.6%，为14个月最大跌幅，GDP核算关联度更高的控制组销售下降0.4%;但其中确有Prime Day提前至6月、此前超额退税透支消费等技术性因素，与此同时，二季度美国实际GDP仍按年率增长1.5%、个人消费支出则增长3.2%。对美联储和风险资产最理想的情景恰恰是“(软而不衰)”式软着陆经济增长轨迹，即消费足够弱，但是可以压低需求型通胀;但又没有弱到触发企业盈利、就业和信用周期全面恶化。更明确的变化发生在利率预期：零售、就业和CPI/PPI正在形成一组越来越不利于鹰派加息的证据链。7月CPI环比仅升0.1%、核心CPI升0.2%，同比核心通胀降至2.5%;随后PPI环比0.0%，明显低于市场预期的+0.2%，同比由5.5%降至4.7%;再叠加7月非农意外减少2.3万人，美联储“必须立即重新收紧”的理由显著弱化。截至8月17日，CME定价的9月加息概率已降至约33%，一个月前为51.2%;Reuters在8月12—17日调查的经济学家中，绝大多数预计政策利率3.50%—3.75%将在2026年余下时间保持不变。 这与Hatzius“除非8月数据发生戏剧性反转，否则9月加息已经非常不可能”的判断高度一致。换句话说，此前美联储FOMC鹰派点阵与三张加息反对票依然构成政策尾部风险，但市场正在从何时再加息重新转向“美联储还能按兵不动观察多久”。对全球股票市场而言，这恰恰是当前AI/成长股最理想、但也最需要拿捏边界的宏观组合：增长降温降低政策利率与贴现率的右尾风险，而AI资本开支和企业盈利尚未同步坍塌。因此，零售销售疲弱本身并不会增加GPU、HBM或AI推理相关联庞大云计算需求，它对AI牛市的作用主要是降低无风险利率上行风险与融资成本，提高长久期科技资产未来现金流的现值;这也是近期温和CPI/PPI后股市能够把“弱数据”解读成利好的原因。但股票市场投资边界同样愈发清楚：如果美国消费支出从1%—1.5%的温和增长进一步掉入负增长，同时就业持续收缩，那么“降息/不加息利好估值”的逻辑最终会被“盈利衰退”取代;反之，只要就业没有失速、企业资本开支和AI盈利继续强劲，当前最有利于风险资产的剧本就是——消费适度降温、通胀继续下行、美联储按兵不动，而盈利周期保持扩张。如果沃尔玛等零售巨头们最新业绩与展望证明居民部门只是降速而没有失速，那么市场获得的就是风险资产最喜欢的组合：消费不再制造通胀压力+企业盈利没有坍塌+美联储无需继续提高无风险利率，这对长久期科技股和AI算力基础设施科技资产尤其友好。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.50.1","shortVersion":"4.50.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2660567574","isCrawlerRequest":true}