招商证券：单耗增加叠加供给紧张 VC价格上涨有潜力

智通财经08-20

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近期国内VC均价大幅上涨，在上半年阶段性回调后重回20万/吨以上。需求端，锂电出货扩张叠加动力电池安全新国标下VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增;供给端，VC名义产能快速扩张，但二代工艺难度较大，预计有效供给释放有限。该行预计VC短缺格局有望延续，后续价格具备显著弹性，建议持续关注。招商证券主要观点如下：VC价格重回上行通道，行业景气度明显修复截至2026年...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2660401898?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-08-20 15:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2660401898","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"招商证券：单耗增加叠加供给紧张 VC价格上涨有潜力","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近期国内VC均价大幅上涨，在上半年阶段性回调后重回20万/吨以上。需求端，锂电出货扩张叠加动力电池安全新国标下VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增;供给端，VC名义产能快速扩张，但二代工艺难度较大，预计有效供给释放有限。该行预计VC短缺格局有望延续，后续价格具备显著弹性，建议持续关注。招商证券主要观点如下：VC价格重回上行通道，行业景气度明显修复截至2026年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1482519.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>招商证券：单耗增加叠加供给紧张 VC价格上涨有潜力</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n招商证券：单耗增加叠加供给紧张 VC价格上涨有潜力\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-20 15:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1482519.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近期国内VC均价大幅上涨，在上半年阶段性回调后重回20万/吨以上。需求端，锂电出货扩张叠加动力电池安全新国标下VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增;供给端，VC名义产能快速扩张，但二代工艺难度较大，预计有效供给释放有限。该行预计VC短缺格局有望延续，后续价格具备显著弹性，建议持续关注。招商证券主要观点如下：VC价格重回上行通道，行业景气度明显修复截至2026年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1482519.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0188","symbol_name":"融资融券","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1482519.html","article_id":"2660401898","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2660401898","pubTimestamp":1787210297,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近期国内VC均价大幅上涨，在上半年阶段性回调后重回20万/吨以上。需求端，锂电出货扩张叠加动力电池安全新国标下VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增;供给端，VC名义产能快速扩张，但二代工艺难度较大，预计有效供给释放有限。该行预计VC短缺格局有望延续，后续价格具备显著弹性，建议持续关注。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600999":"招商证券","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0010":"央企","BK1564":"中资券商股","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","LU1815336091.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0757428866.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL SMALLER COMPANIES \"AE\" (USD) ACC","BK0028":"国家队","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0183":"MSCI概念","VC":"伟世通","BK0012":"证金概念","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","06099":"招商证券"},"translate_title":"China Merchants Securities: Increased unit consumption superimposed tight supply VC price rise has potential","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600999":1.5,"VC":1.5,"06099":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，近期国内VC均价大幅上涨，在上半年阶段性回调后重回20万/吨以上。需求端，锂电出货扩张叠加动力电池安全新国标下VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增;供给端，VC名义产能快速扩张，但二代工艺难度较大，预计有效供给释放有限。该行预计VC短缺格局有望延续，后续价格具备显著弹性，建议持续关注。招商证券主要观点如下：VC价格重回上行通道，行业景气度明显修复截至2026年8月14日，国内VC均价已达22.5万元/吨，6月以来涨幅超70%，受苏州华一大连1万吨产能停产等因素影响，价格上涨明显提速。长期来看，VC价格经历了2021年冲高、2022-2025年持续下行、2025年底触底反转的完整周期。2025年7-8月均价一度降至约4.6万元/吨，随后储能需求爆发叠加龙头停产检修，价格快速反弹。2026年上半年经历阶段性回调后，6月以来再次冲高，当前价格已较2025年低点上涨约4倍，价格仍处于上行通道。锂电出货扩张叠加VC单耗提升，全球需求有望持续高增预计2027年全球锂电池出货量约3600GWh，2025-2027年CAGR约26%，其中储能电池占比由27%提升至31%。需求总量增长外，动力电池安全新国标推动VC添加比例提升，预计后续动力LFP/三元体系VC添加比例提升约33%/67%;储能电池循环寿命和长期稳定性要求更高，LFP体系VC添加比例预计提升约10%。叠加LFP渗透率提升及高VC单耗储能电池占比增加，预计行业平均VC单耗由30吨/GWh提升至38吨/GWh，2025-2027年全球VC需求量CAGR约42%，远超行业增速。新技术扩产难度高，预计有效供给释放有限过去一段时间，头部企业绑定大客户名义产能快速扩张，亘元、华盛、永太都有2-10万吨扩产计划;此外二线厂家多采用技改降本增效，产能有20-30%的提升。本轮扩产多由一代长流程转向二代短流程技术，较一代降本约1.5-2万元/吨，但产业反馈二代工艺难度较高，产能释放进度较慢。该行预计27年VC全球名义产能可达40万吨，但实际释放约11万吨，供给释放整体有限。VC短缺格局有望延续，价格和盈利具备显著弹性产业反馈，下游需求旺盛，目前VC已出现供需缺口，后续可能持续紧张。该行预计若供给释放不及预期，2026年下半年开始供需将由紧平衡转向短缺加剧。VC在电芯价值量中占比较低，即使按当前价格测算占比仍仅约1.9%，下游对涨价承受能力较强;在需求高增、有效供给释放偏慢背景下，预计VC价格仍具备较强支撑，且价格及盈利弹性有望进一步强化，建议持续关注。建议关注：华盛锂电、海科新源、日科化学、天赐材料，永太科技、孚日股份、富祥股份等。风险提示：下游需求不及预期、新产能投放或爬坡过快等风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2660401898","isCrawlerRequest":true}