【券商聚焦】华泰证券：AI缺电链条投资出现“缩圈”

金吾财讯08:59

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，尽管燃机/缺电链条企业二季度新签订单全面超预期，但股价并不尽如人意，背后的担忧该机构汇总来看是围绕AI电力需求和供给叙事的两个变化：1.市场对AIDC建设需求增速的争议开始增多：围绕大模型企业ARR增速和CSP企业CAPEX增速的讨论引发市场对美国AIDC年新增规模的再校准，需求侧预期的变化引发供给侧燃机紧缺程度和灵活性电源市场空间可持续性的担忧，该机构认为市场回归乐观情绪或需要2030年美国AIDC新增规模预期重新回到80-100GW/年。2.审批/民意/EPC等因素的出现削弱“电力（设备）是AI最大瓶颈”的叙事：根据Aterio追踪，1-7月美国新建数据中心约7GW，距离全年15-20GW的市场预期有一定距离。今年以来电网接入、厂址环评、管道审批、居民反对、EPC紧缺等因素对数据中心建设节奏的影响开始显现，2Q26美国电源设备/电力设备/液冷企业订单确已受到小幅影响。在上述背景下，市场更加需要企业订单和收入能在一定能见度内确认来自北美缺电的收益，而不再买入远期叙事，导致AI缺电链条投资出现“缩圈”。缺电叙事变化+标的缩圈背景下，当前位置更看好什么？1.订单已在手，未来几个季度能释放北美缺电业绩的燃机链条企业。2.交付周期更短，订单更可能超预期的SOFC/气发主机厂。3.需求从0-1，对于总量叙事变化相对脱敏的储能企业。

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华泰证券表示，尽管燃机/缺电链条企业二季度新签订单全面超预期，但股价并不尽如人意，背后的担忧该机构汇总来看是围绕AI电力需求和供给叙事的两个变化：1.市场对AIDC建设需求增速的争议开始增多：围绕大模型企业ARR增速和CSP企业CAPEX增速的讨论引发市场对美国AIDC年新增规模的再校准，需求侧预期的变化引发供给侧燃机紧缺程度和灵活性电源市场空间可持续性的担忧，该机构认为市场回归乐观情绪或需要2030年美国AIDC新增规模预期重新回到80-100GW/年。2.审批/民意/EPC等因素的出现削弱“电力（设备）是AI最大瓶颈”的叙事：根据Aterio追踪，1-7月美国新建数据中心约7GW，距离全年15-20GW的市场预期有一定距离。今年以来电网接入、厂址环评、管道审批、居民反对、EPC紧缺等因素对数据中心建设节奏的影响开始显现，2Q26美国电源设备/电力设备/液冷企业订单确已受到小幅影响。在上述背景下，市场更加需要企业订单和收入能在一定能见度内确认来自北美缺电的收益，而不再买入远期叙事，导致AI缺电链条投资出现“缩圈”。缺电叙事变化+标的缩圈背景下，当前位置更看好什么？1.订单已在手，未来几个季度能释放北美缺电业绩的燃机链条企业。2.交付周期更短，订单更可能超预期的SOFC/气发主机厂。3.需求从0-1，对于总量叙事变化相对脱敏的储能企业。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":true,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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