高盛拆解美股二季报：AI基础设施赚得盆满钵满，应用端盈利仍像“画饼”

智通财经08-17

8月17日，高盛策略师本·斯奈德指出，企业正以前所未有的速度加大人工智能(AI)投入，然而对多数公司而言，这项技术迄今尚未转化为实质性的盈利改善。高盛在8月14日发布的一份报告中称，在今年第二季度财报季中，标普500指数成分股中仅有2%的企业量化了AI对盈利的具体影响;11%的企业则表示在软件编程、客户支持等特定领域已观察到可测量的生产率提升。不过，这些实现效率改善的企业，其盈利增长并未显著跑赢...

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AI指数显示，企业每月人均AI支出已从年初的5美元升至7月的12美元;排名前10%的企业此项支出则从240美元飙升至650美元。在第二季度财报电话会议上，约7%的标普500企业讨论了AI部署成本。多数企业表示相关支出规模尚小，或强调将以审慎原则推进投资，也有企业称AI带来的收益已超过投入成本。高盛估算，目前AI推理成本在标普500企业营收中所占比例不足0.5%。而其最新IT支出调查显示，89%的受访者表示AI支出占其IT预算的1%至5%。需要注意的是，上述估算并未涵盖AI部署相关的全部成本，如专业人员配备和技术基础设施建设等。现有预算内部腾挪支撑转型高盛的调查发现，约三分之二的企业通过从既有预算中调配资源来支持AI投入，而非完全依赖新增资金。具体而言，35%的受访者表示AI支出来自新增预算;18%通过成本效率提升项目筹集资金;另有18%从软件预算中调拨，11%从人力成本中转移，10%来自云服务预算，9%则源于数据分析支出。高盛认为，IT预算内部的结构性调整，更可能在不同企业间重新分配利润，而不会显著改变标普500整体的盈利水平。但若人力成本被大幅削减，则可能产生更广泛的经济影响。不过就目前而言，劳动力市场所受冲击仍集中于市场营销、平面设计、客户服务及部分技术岗位，而数据中心建设带来的新增就业一定程度上抵消了上述岗位的减少。高盛经济学家预计，AI最终将替代部分劳动力，但认为这一冲击将是暂时性的，且规模小于许多投资者的预期。软件行业冲击尚不明显市场此前担忧，客户会借助AI自行开发应用，从而减少对外部软件供应商的依赖。但高盛发现，目前并未出现大范围的行业洗牌。在其IT调查中，仅有17%的受访企业表示计划增加内部软件开发、减少外购成品软件。高盛覆盖的软件公司中位数年度经常性收入(ARR)增速，从2025年第四季度的18%升至今年第一季度的22%，第二季度进一步加快至23%。当然，这并不意味着个体供应商便可高枕无忧。高盛提到，有报道称星巴克(SBUX.US)正研发内部AI工具，以取代部分由微软(MSFT.US)、IBM(IBM.US)等公司提供的软件。但从行业整体数据来看，尚未出现普遍的恶化趋势。高盛筛选潜在受益标的高盛认为，劳动力成本较高、且大量岗位具备自动化潜力的企业，最终或将从AI中获益最多。目前，劳动力成本约占标普500企业总营收的12%，年规模约2.1万亿美元。各行业差异显著：工业企业中占比达21%，信息技术行业为16%，而能源行业仅为5%。高盛从罗素1000指数成分股中筛选出劳动力成本较高、AI自动化替代潜力较大、且管理层曾在财报中提及AI相关效率提升的企业，名单包括：科斯塔(CSGP.US)、美元树公司(DLTR.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)、亚瑟加拉格尔(AJG.US)、Axon Enterprise(AXON.US)、The Trade Desk(TTD.US)、爱彼迎(ABNB.US)、波音(BA.US)、洛克希德·马丁(LMT.US)、嘉信理财(SCHW.US)及摩根士丹利(MS.US)。但高盛也指出，这份筛选名单并不意味着这些企业已实现显著的AI降本增效——事实上，这批潜在受益者的盈利数据尚未显示出实质性的提升。就目前而言，AI的投资逻辑依然泾渭分明：一边是基础设施供应商，利润已清晰可见;另一边是技术部署者，财务回报仍更多停留在预期层面。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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