数据：2025 年买入的 BTC 至今仍亏损，相关筹码较峰值下降 41.5%

链捕手08-14 16:34

ChainCatcher 消息，链上数据分析师 Murphy 发文指出，2025 年买入的 BTC，持有至今均处于浮亏状态。目前 2025 年筹码仍有约 477 万枚，较去年 12 月峰值下降 41.5%。下降斜率呈现两段：2 月前急速下降，2 月后有所减缓，但仍保持一定斜率。该群体目前是市场规模最大的供应端。

对比 2024、2023、2022 年数据发现，仍有浮盈的旧筹码已基本度过下降斜率陡峭期，时间越久斜率越小，2 月后曲线几乎走平。即便价格再跌，这些筹码数量变化也不明显，该换手的已换手完毕。历史数据方面，2022 年熊底时 2021 年高位筹码下降 51%，2018 年熊底时 2017 年高位筹码下降 62%。

Murphy 认为，若单纯参照历史，本轮熊底 2025 年筹码最大降幅或在 50%-60%（当前为 41%），且尚未计入 2025 年 ETF 及 MicroStrategy 等机构买入的 BTC，其中大部分处于锁定状态。

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