预测平台Kalshi交易员押注标普500指数年末站上8000点机率约66%

格隆汇10:28

预测交易平台Kalshi最新合约显示，交易员押注标普500指数今年收盘站上8000点的机率约66%。Kalshi合约以Google Finance收盘价结算，投机者另押注今年触及8200点机率约33%。该机率虽非机构共识，但反映散户与量化资金对获利驱动+利率回落组合的定价。若10年期美债收益率稳住4.7%下方、美联储年内不重启升息，8000点将从情绪目标变成可结算路径。

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