告别无脑暴涨！美股财报季上演极致分化，华尔街共识：AI投入进入“验真期”，唯有盈利能穿越震荡

智通财经08-03

智通财经APP获悉，进入2026年第二季度财报季的尾声，全球投资者正经历一场认知重塑：人工智能(AI)叙事远未结束，但“风口飞猪”式的普涨已不复存在。面对企业真金白银的巨额投入，市场开始用脚投票，严格区分“烧钱者”与“收租者”。尽管如此，以高盛为代表的部分华尔街大行认为，当前AI板块的剧烈震荡并非意味着市场崩溃的起点，反而是长期牛市在强劲盈利支撑下的正常盘整。从全局数据看，这个财报季不仅没有戳破...

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The earnings season of U.S. stocks staged extreme differentiation, and Wall Street consensus: AI investment has entered the \"authenticity period\", and only profits can cross the shock","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5ec6b0f230dbdc4ca9061cf7f50cde1","symbols_score_info":{"ARTY":1.5,"XAUG":1.5,"SIXO":1.5,"SEPI":1.5,"MAYM":1.5,"UXOC":1.5,"JUST":1.5,"NOEQ":1.5,"TSPA":1.5,"PQXX":1.5,"OCTP":1.5,"UXAP":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"FAUG":1.5,"BJUL":1.5,"SPUS":1.5,"ZAPR":1.5,"ZECP":1.5,"PQX":1.5,"PBMY":1.5,"FOCT":1.5,"OMFL":1.5,"UPRO":1.5,"HMAY":1.5,"PALC":1.5,"IVV":1.5,"LAPR":1.5,"FBUF":1.5,"XBAP":1.5,"UJUL":1.5,"PBUS":1.5,"SCHB":1.5,"UOCT":1.5,"BKLC":1.5,"BAMG":1.5,"RANK":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"USPX":1.5,"PBFB":1.5,"PMOC":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"SIXZ":1.5,"EQLS":1.5,"USSE":1.5,"UXJL":1.5,"DMAR":1.5,"PMAP":1.5,"AUGZ":1.5,"TFGZ":1.5,"SSO":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，进入2026年第二季度财报季的尾声，全球投资者正经历一场认知重塑：人工智能(AI)叙事远未结束，但“风口飞猪”式的普涨已不复存在。面对企业真金白银的巨额投入，市场开始用脚投票，严格区分“烧钱者”与“收租者”。尽管如此，以高盛为代表的部分华尔街大行认为，当前AI板块的剧烈震荡并非意味着市场崩溃的起点，反而是长期牛市在强劲盈利支撑下的正常盘整。从全局数据看，这个财报季不仅没有戳破市场的乐观情绪，反而交出了一份堪称“有史以来最强之一”的成绩单。根据高盛截至7月31日的统计，已公布业绩的标普500成分股(占指数总市值约三分之二)中，64%的公司盈利超出华尔街预期至少一个标准差，为罕见的高质量超预期。高盛测算显示，若剔除几家科技巨头异常庞大的投资收益，标普500整体盈利同比增幅约为26%;计入后，整体增幅更飙升至45%。即便是代表性更强的成分股盈利中位数增速也达到了12%，显著高于分析师在季度初预期的9%。其他机构研究的数据同样呈现了类似的强劲势头，显示标普500公司二季度每股盈利同比增速有望达29%，为脱离危机后复苏年份之外的最高水平之一。这一强劲底色并非美国独有。欧洲斯托克600指数成分股的利润在经历了两年几乎零增长后，本季度同比跃升19%。这使得欧洲市场成为本轮财报季的亮点之一，斯托克600指数自7月中旬以来逆势上涨1.3%，并一度刷新历史高位。AI交易不再“一视同仁”：花钱受罚，守财受赏尽管整体盈利光芒四射，股票投资者却在本季度学到了一堂异常严厉的课：并非所有AI概念股都能躺着享受溢价，资金正在对AI支出策略进行极其苛刻的审查。分化集中体现在大型科技股的走势上。 Facebook母公司Meta(META.US)交出财报后股价大跌8%，原因是其给出的营收指引令人失望，且自由现金流创下多年新低，背后直指其在AI领域不断膨胀的支出。谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)同样因释放出继续扩大资本开支的信号而遭到市场惩罚。相反，微软(MSFT.US)却凭借一份惊艳答卷单日暴涨16%，市值暴增近5000亿美元。催化剂源于四年来最快的云业务增速，以及公司“变相”下调年内资本支出规模。亚马逊(AMZN.US)也因云业务收入超预期缓解了市场对其巨额AI投入回报的担忧，股价单日上涨15%。“投资者终将对超大规模企业的无止境支出感到厌倦，” Explosive Options创始人兼首席期权分析师Bob Lang对此评论称，“因此，看到某家企业因选择暂缓脚步而受到奖励，这丝毫不令人意外。”Leverage Shares高级研究分析师Violeta Todorova进一步指出：“盈利虽然保持韧性，但投资者已不再愿意为大市值科技公司支付越来越高的估值。投资者已变得更加理性。”高盛：支出飙升非警报，AI回报证据正在增多然而，在市场的剧烈奖惩背后，高盛给出了一个截然不同的解读角度：AI投资竞赛非但没有熄火，反而在加速，而且开始显现回报。高盛策略师Ben Snider在报告中指出，Alphabet、亚马逊和微软三家超大规模云服务商本季度云收入合计同比猛增48%，较上季度的39%进一步提速。这让分析师们竞相上调对未来资本开支的预测。高盛目前预计，到2027年，超大规模企业的年度资本支出将突破1万亿美元，比财报季开始前的预测高出逾1000亿美元。如此庞大的开支并非没有代价。数据显示，五大超大规模企业在第二季度合计消耗了1820亿美元的资本支出，而同期产生的自由现金流仅约50亿美元。为弥合这一巨大鸿沟，它们在本季度通过发债和股权融资合计筹集了约1010亿美元。对此，高盛并不视其为警报。相反，该行认为这恰恰反映出企业对AI投入正产生足够强劲的营收增长，足以支撑持续扩张的信心。分析师当前的预测显示，即便资本支出继续攀升，云服务提供商在未来两年仍有望交出更快的营收增速。Snider写道，当前投资者的核心问题已从“AI支出是否过度”转向“盈利能否持续证明支出合理”。据其测算，仅AI基础设施公司就贡献了二季度标普500盈利增长的约三分之一，且在2026年下半年至2027年间，这一比例可能升至一半以上。英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)以及前述几家云巨头仍是其中最大贡献者。动荡本质是拥挤交易的“出清”，而非溃堤对于近期AI相关股票的急剧回撤，高盛认为这更像是一次熟门熟路的历史重演，而不是崩盘的序幕。Snider指出，当前的大幅震荡与历史上动量因子交易过度拥挤后的表现极为相似。在那几次情景中，市场通常会先经历一段剧烈的去杠杆和筹码出清，随后进入盘整，最终恢复长期上行趋势。高盛注意到，对冲基金和ETF投资者目前已显著降低了杠杆水平，这一发展将有助于平抑后续波动。“投资者不应将近期AI股票的动荡误认为更广泛市场溃败的开始，” Snider强调，“除非盈利本身开始恶化，否则本轮更广泛的牛市仍然建立在企业利润上升的坚实基础之上，而非单纯由投机驱动。”繁荣扩散，欧洲与价值板块悄然接棒值得注意的是，支撑市场的力量正在从单一的AI赢家向外扩散，这为当前牛市提供了更厚实的安全垫。高盛强调，衡量市场广度的标普500等权重指数正随着盈利预期的稳步改善而持续走高，这表明即便剔除少数科技巨头的巨大推力，更广泛的企业基本面依然健康。从行业看，金融、能源和医疗保健是本季美欧市场业绩超预期比例最高的板块之一。华尔街对未来更加乐观，花旗编制的美国盈利修正指数已连续15周实现净上调，为2022年以来最长记录;欧洲分析师上调盈利预测的数量也创下2021年以来新高。高盛表示，市场对2027年标普500盈利的共识预期自本季度初以来已整体上修约1%，其中能源和金融企业获得的调升幅度最大。欧洲更是在本轮获得了实实在在的资金青睐。欧洲最大资产管理公司Amundi的高级多资产组合经理Amelie Derambure透露：“我们在财报季前就降低了美国敞口，并将部分仓位转向了欧洲。我们对AI主题的过度集中和权重感到不安，同时预期欧洲能兑现其高企的盈利预期——事实证明它做到了。”隐忧仍在：利润率与“审美疲劳”的考验尽管盈利增长的引擎看似强劲，但脆弱点同样清晰。高盛敏锐地察觉到，虽然多数公司有力消化了更高的关税和能源成本，但分析师已开始下调许多公司的利润率预测，暗示投入成本压力依然是悬在企业头上的风险。这表明，尽管营收端保持健康，但若成本侵蚀利润，再乐观的AI故事也将面临考验。与此同时，市场对“只见投入、不见利润”的容忍度正在急速收窄。Mahoney Asset Management首席执行官Ken Mahoney表示：“起初，良好的业绩对很多人来说还不够好。如今，随着大量个股经历显著回调，我们正密切关注它们能否在此企稳，并找到一些更高的低点。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.50.1","shortVersion":"4.50.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2656449213","isCrawlerRequest":true}