阿里Max级模型将首次开源，最强模型就得闭源的规则变了

第一财经08-04 15:17

超2万亿参数规模模型又添新成员。继Kimi K3之后，当地时间8月3日，阿里巴巴发布新一代基座大模型Qwen3.8-Max。　　该模型总参数量达2.4万亿，采用稀疏混合专家（MoE）架构，单次仅激活约950亿参数，兼顾旗舰级“脑容量”与极低推理延迟。模型支持最长100万Token上下文窗口，原生具备多模态视觉能力。官方宣称该模型在编程、办公、科学研究及长周期任务中的综合表现已进入全球大模型第一梯队...

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K3之后，当地时间8月3日，阿里巴巴发布新一代基座大模型Qwen3.8-Max。　　该模型总参数量达2.4万亿，采用稀疏混合专家（MoE）架构，单次仅激活约950亿参数，兼顾旗舰级“脑容量”与极低推理延迟。模型支持最长100万Token上下文窗口，原生具备多模态视觉能力。官方宣称该模型在编程、办公、科学研究及长周期任务中的综合表现已进入全球大模型第一梯队。　　相比技术指标，此次较为突出的是阿里在商业策略上的转变。官方宣布：Qwen 3.8-Max模型权重预计将于下周正式开源公布，这也是Qwen-Max级别旗舰模型首次对外开源。　　阿里Qwen系列自2023年推出至今，有多款开源模型，Max系列是其中定位最高的闭源旗舰模型，此前仅支持API调用，用户无法下载权重。此次战略调整背后是以DeepSeek为代表的国产开源模型证明了开源与低成本能够独立切开市场空间。与其死守闭源API利润前景，不如尝试通过开源路径争夺未来AI Agent生态话语权。　　DeepSeek V4 Flash因性能与低价优势引发大规模调用后，有分析观点表示，开源策略虽会拖累商业化，但能降低采用门槛、扩大海外覆盖、促进跨多云和异构硬件部署，且有能力的开源替代方案会让闭源模型提供商很难维持高API定价。　　若闭源模式确定遭遇来自开源的冲击，则调整不可避免，对开源厂商的考验也将更加全方位。　　阿里巴巴集团主席蔡崇信在此前的访谈中，将AI开源企业划分为两类：一类是纯模型开发企业，这类企业要直接从开源模型变现，过程中面临本质上的挑战；另一类则是像阿里巴巴及Google等全栈科技企业，涵盖从云基础设施、基础模型到应用层面的完整技术体系，这种全栈布局令相关企业能于其他技术层面中捕捉价值，例如通过销售云计算服务而获利。　　开源让阿里不必将利润压力全部压在API定价上，但这并不意味着可以忽视推理成本。恰恰相反，开源之后的真正门槛转移到了“用不用得起”，尤其是当AI从单轮对话走向长周期Agent闭环时。　　Qwen 3.8-Max每百万输出Token成本约6美元，而此前业内标杆模型（如Fable 5）的成本则高达50美元。在单次对话中，几美元的差距或许可以忽略；但在需要反复调用工具、输出长程代码、接收反馈并不断试错的Agent作业中，这种数倍的边际成本差，将直接划定商业模型能否持续。　　要做到成本降低，除了MoE架构、混合注意力机制等行业普遍方式，阿里还具备软硬件协同的算力生态基础，包括通过旗下芯片公司平头哥，实现从AI芯片到CPU、网卡、存储主控自研。7月，阿里云宣布灵骏真武M890超节点实例已成功适配Qwen3.8，并上线阿里云百炼平台提供模型推理服务，系国内首个成功运行超2万亿参数大模型的超节点。　　算力生态是包括DeepSeek在内模型创业公司的短板。今日，海外开源社区OpenCode发文称：“DeepSeek V4 Flash当前因前所未有的访问量而出现容量不足的问题，可能会遇到报错，正在紧急修复中。”　　如果说DeepSeek代表了算法优化在极致成本控制上的极限，那么阿里此次发布Qwen 3.8-Max及开源策略，则代表了国产模型在全场景应用与Agent生态上的突破，包括长时间自主编程，配套阿里Agent产品千问办公同步上线等。　　业界分析认为，Qwen 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