机构：若霍尔木兹海峡维持关闭状态，英国将面临经济衰退风险

环球市场播报08-03

计师事务所安永（EY）分析师周一警告称，如果霍尔木兹海峡在明年年中之前仍未恢复通航，英国经济在2027年可能出现萎缩。　　基于霍尔木兹海峡将在9月底前恢复通航的假设，安永将英国今年经济增长预测从0.8%小幅上调至0.9%，并预计2027年经济增长1.2%。　　“如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内恢复通航，我们预计英国将避免更严重的经济下滑；但如果关闭状态持续到2027年，则会推高通胀，并可能导致...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-08-03/doc-inikyxup4627602.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>计师事务所安永（EY）分析师周一警告称，如果霍尔木兹海峡在明年年中之前仍未恢复通航，英国经济在2027年可能出现萎缩。\n　　基于霍尔木兹海峡将在9月底前恢复通航的假设，安永将英国今年经济增长预测从0.8%小幅上调至0.9%，并预计2027年经济增长1.2%。\n　　“如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内恢复通航，我们预计英国将避免更严重的经济下滑；但如果关闭状态持续到2027年，则会推高通胀，并可能导致...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-08-03/doc-inikyxup4627602.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FIXT","symbol_name":"TCW Core Plus Bond 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Arnold表示。\n　　安永预测，如果霍尔木兹海峡一直关闭至2027年初至年中，英国今年经济增速将放缓至0.5%，且2027年经济将萎缩0.2%。\n　　在这一情境下，到2026年底通胀率可能升至6.4%；而如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内恢复通航，今年通胀率峰值将为3.5%\n　　英国央行上周的预测显示，在石油和天然气价格持续比市场预期高出30%至60%的不利情景下，明年经济将增长近1%，季度通胀率将在4.5%触顶\n　　安永预计，英国央行今年将维持利率不变，明年则将在4月和7月分别降息，使利率从3.75%下调至3.25%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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