美国6月PCE时隔四年再次回落，美联储下一步会怎么走

第一财经07:35

沃什最新表态让华尔街陷入疑惑。　　在美联储最新利率决议公布后的第二天，货币政策制定者重点追踪的通胀指标在6月有所回落，但仍远高于央行2%的目标水平。考虑到经济内在驱动因素整体稳健，新任主席凯文・沃什领导下的美联储接下来将作出何种政策应对引发了市场更多猜测，央行政策路径变得扑朔迷离。　　通胀压力犹存　　美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，受能源价格走低拖累整体物价，个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）上月...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-07-31/doc-iniksaip0886578.shtml><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>沃什最新表态让华尔街陷入疑惑。\n　　在美联储最新利率决议公布后的第二天，货币政策制定者重点追踪的通胀指标在6月有所回落，但仍远高于央行2%的目标水平。考虑到经济内在驱动因素整体稳健，新任主席凯文・沃什领导下的美联储接下来将作出何种政策应对引发了市场更多猜测，央行政策路径变得扑朔迷离。\n　　通胀压力犹存\n　　美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，受能源价格走低拖累整体物价，个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）上月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-07-31/doc-iniksaip0886578.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DBND","symbol_name":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-07-31/doc-iniksaip0886578.shtml","article_id":"2655387844","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-07-31/doc-iniksaip0886578.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, 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0.2%、同比上涨3.3%。\n　　分部门看，得益于中东冲突阶段性缓和，6月能源商品与服务价格环比大跌5.9%，汽油价格下滑9.2%。住房通胀同步降温，仅上涨0.2%。与此同时，商品整体物价下跌0.6%，服务业物价仅微增0.1%。\n　　美联储将PCE指数，尤其是核心PCE，视作衡量美国通胀趋势最可靠的指标。数据显示，通胀水平连续第六年显著高于央行2%的政策目标。\n　　与此同时，6月消费支出保持韧性，个人消费支出环比上升0.3%，与预期一致。不过个人收入环比增长0.2%，低于0.3%的市场预期。受此影响，民众只能依靠动用储蓄维持开支，个人储蓄率回落至 2.7%，创下四年新低。\n　　政策前景扑朔迷离\n　　考虑到今年劳动力市场各项指标趋于稳定，通胀因此成为美联储政策制定者的首要关注点。\n　　然而通胀能否延续降温态势仍存在较大不确定性。6月通胀回落的核心驱动因素是美伊达成脆弱停火、开启和谈带来的油价下跌。但双方分歧依旧巨大，原油价格仍处于相对高位。第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街预计今年年底前通胀水平大概率持续高于3%，给美联储施加政策收紧压力。\n　　美联储周三宣布维持利率不变，美联储主席沃什在新闻发布会上表示，尽管美联储决心遏制通胀，但过去数周市场利率上行，为央行争取到一定政策缓冲空间。不过，由12名成员组成的政策委员会中有三名委员持异议、主张加息；叠加周三长期美债收益率大幅攀升，种种迹象表明美联储面临的加息压力正在加剧。\n　　然而沃什不愿充分阐述观点，令市场倍感失望。外界开始质疑：他能否拿出实质性政策行动，兑现对抗通胀的强硬表态。当天股市大跌，债市同样遭遇抛售。PGIM全球债券主管兼首席投资策略师罗伯特・蒂普称：“市场评价普遍不佳。”\n　　当下断言沃什与美联储公信力受损尚且为时过早，但华尔街各大资产的剧烈反应已是不祥信号。当然，部分失望情绪仅仅源于市场需要适应沃什截然不同的沟通风格 ———相较于伯南克、耶伦与鲍威尔三位前任。沃什并不认同所谓前瞻指引，也就是向市场释放利率政策动向与逻辑线索。过去15年美联储一直奉行高度透明的沟通机制，如今政策信息出现明显真空。\n　　摩根大通本周也调整预期，预判美联储将在12月加息25个基点，较此前2027 年下半年加息的预期显著提前。摩根大通预测，美联储12月加息后，利率区间将上调至3.75%-4.00%并维持不变；该行同时提示，若通胀继续升温，9月加息仍存在可能性。芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch）数据显示，当前市场定价9月加息概率为65.2%，较政策声明发布前的81%明显回落。\n　　事实上，目前各大投行观点分歧显著：高盛、巴克莱继续预判美联储年内维持利率不变；美银全球研究则预计从9月开启，合计进行三次加息。与之形成对比，长期秉持鸽派立场的花旗在7月议息会后维持原有判断：美联储将于今年10月、12月降息，并在2027年1月再度降息。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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