分析师警告：美伊冲突升级重燃通胀担忧，美联储鹰派基调难松动

智通财经07-21

7月21日，分析师表示，美伊紧张局势升级推高油价，再度引发通胀担忧，进而支撑美联储延续鹰派基调。目前，市场认为‌9月是美联储下一轮加息的关键窗口。贝莱德估计，这场冲突将使全球总体通胀率上升约0.8个百分点，但其影响在各个地区并不相同。贝莱德在一份报告中指出，欧洲和部分亚洲地区更加依赖能源进口，因此更容易受到全球整体通胀的影响。华侨银行分析师也认同这一观点，称“鉴于劳动力市场数据表明经济趋于稳定而非...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1470267.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月21日，分析师表示，美伊紧张局势升级推高油价，再度引发通胀担忧，进而支撑美联储延续鹰派基调。目前，市场认为‌9月是美联储下一轮加息的关键窗口。贝莱德估计，这场冲突将使全球总体通胀率上升约0.8个百分点，但其影响在各个地区并不相同。贝莱德在一份报告中指出，欧洲和部分亚洲地区更加依赖能源进口，因此更容易受到全球整体通胀的影响。华侨银行分析师也认同这一观点，称“鉴于劳动力市场数据表明经济趋于稳定而非...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1470267.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"RMIF","symbol_name":"LHA Risk-Managed Income 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Ma表示，虽然美国中小市值公司的利润率上升是一个积极的发展趋势，但“不确定这些趋势能否经受住几个季度的油价上涨和持续的通胀压力。 ”Ma认为，美联储的鹰派立场“将会持续下去”，直到“能源市场、石油市场以及其他领域的通胀压力出现缓解，而这些压力已经重回上升轨道。”他表示：“我们必须考虑构建一个均衡的投资组合，以分散部分风险。”美联储官员密集“放鹰” 9月成关键加息窗口 在中东局势动荡不安的背景下，多位美联储官员上周对物价上涨表达了更为强烈的担忧。2026年FOMC票委、达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根成为首位呼吁加息的美联储官员，表示通胀似乎并未持续回归美联储2%的目标水平。堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德也表示，鉴于未来几个月通胀风险可能进一步加剧，通胀是他当前最担忧的问题。尽管美国6月通胀数据好于市场预期，但施密德警告称，就此判定通胀开启下行趋势为时过早。美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊也表示，如果通胀不能很快降温，美联储应该考虑提高利率，但他同时表示，目前的货币政策形势良好。值得关注的是，美联储新任主席凯文·沃什上周在国会作证时表示，政策制定者对高通胀“零容忍”，并承诺将恢复物价稳定，但他并未明确表示会支持加息。美联储将于7月28日至29日举行下一次货币政策会议。美联储官员本周进入例行静默期，市场在此期间将缺乏新的政策信号。虽然部分官员担忧高通胀并暗示可能需要加息，但市场目前普遍押注美联储在7月会议上将‌维持利率不变‌。‌根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的“美联储观察”工具，交易员目前认为美联储7月维持利率不变的概率达83%‌，市场普遍将下一次加息的窗口‌推迟至9月或10月。其中，美联储9月加息25个基点的概率超过50%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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