CBCX:黄金跌破关口关注利率

市场资讯07-17 16:11

7月17日，黄金跌破关键心理关口，收益率回升削弱了此前利率降温带来的支撑，CBCX表示，市场正在重新评估贵金属的持有成本，短线资金对美元和债券收益率更敏感。

　　利率预期变化仍是金价波动的主线，在CBCX看来，若美债收益率继续走高，黄金反弹会受到压制；若后续数据重新缓和政策压力，贵金属可能获得修复空间。当前黄金市场并非缺少避险需求，而是避险买盘不足以完全抵消实际利率上行。

　　投资者还会观察ETF资金、期货成交和美元指数，判断跌破关口后是否有稳定承接。若技术支撑迟迟无法收复，市场情绪会更加谨慎。同时，黄金跌破整数关口后，技术交易和宏观交易会同时放大波动。若资金在低位重新承接，市场可能逐步修复；若美元保持强势，贵金属仓位仍会继续被压缩。因此，低位承接是否稳定，会成为判断黄金短线方向的关键。

　　后续可关注美国数据、收益率和黄金资金流，CBCX分析称，若资金重新回到贵金属，金价可能逐步企稳；若收益率保持强势，短线仍需防范继续下探风险。

　　风险提示：本文仅为资讯分享，不构成投资建议。外汇、贵金属属高风险产品，波动较大或致本金亏损。请理性投资、自担风险。

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