美股“超级周”来袭：财报季邂逅通胀数据，中东战火再起搅动市场

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7月13日，在经历了相对平静的上周之后，美股市场将迎来繁忙的一周：第二季度财报季正式拉开帷幕，多项关键经济数据陆续出炉。与此同时，美军对伊朗发起新一轮打击，地缘政治不确定性持续扰动市场。上周五，标普500指数逼近历史新高，SK海力士(SKHYV.US)完成美股史上最大外国公司IPO，上市首日大涨近13%，推动AI交易重回市场主线。上周，标普500累涨1.23%，纳指累涨1.74%，道指则下跌...

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Financial首席股票策略师Jeffrey Buchbinder指出，在美国企业依靠AI提升生产效率的大背景下，利润率“是能否延续高盈利增速的关键因素。”他表示，企业利润率必须实现有效扩张，才能将10%出头的营收增速转化为至少翻倍的盈利增速，而AI赛道将成为拉动业绩增长的核心支柱。Buchbinder特别指出，芯片巨头美光科技(MU.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)预计将贡献标普 500 指数整体盈利增量的40%，而AI基础设施类股票预计贡献约60%。除科技板块外，预计只有能源板块对每股收益增长的贡献超过1个百分点。然而，标普500指数面临的第一个考验将来自金融服务板块，预计银行业将在IPO和交易量激增的背景下，再次实现盈利大幅增长。关键数据出炉：通胀是否迎来降温拐点?6月能否成为美国通胀下行的转折点?经济学家预测这存在一定可能性。美国劳工统计局将于周二公布月度消费者价格指数(CPI)。经济学家预计，该指数继5月份上涨0.5%之后，6月将环比下降0.1%。衡量批发端通胀的生产者价格指数(PPI)将于周三公布。经济学家预计，继5月份环比上涨1.1%之后，6月该指数增速将放缓至0.1%。预计整体CPI、PPI分别同比上涨3.8%和6.2%，绝对值依旧偏高，但对比5月(整体 CPI同比上涨4.2%、整体PPI同比上涨6.5%)已明显降温。剔除食品、能源价格的核心CPI同比增速预计也将放缓。对于投资者而言，这些数据将提供关键信息，帮助判断美联储在努力实现2%通胀目标的过程中，未来可能加息的可能性和时机。市场已完全计价美联储12月前加息25个基点，但经济学家们的观点仍然存在很大分歧。美联储6月议息会议纪要(凯文·沃什就任主席后的首次会议)显示：几乎所有委员均表态，若通胀持续降温，倾向维持利率不变甚至放宽政策;反之，若通胀回落不及预期，几乎全体委员支持收紧货币政策。Capital.com 分析师 Daniela Hathorn在报告中表示：“尽管沃什重申美联储将坚定不移落实2%通胀目标，但他始终拒绝给出明确政策前瞻指引，这也令美股市场走势高度依赖各项经济数据表现。”中东紧张局势再度升温7月13日(周一)亚太盘初，由于中东紧张局势再度升温，美股三大股指期货、贵金属、加密货币全线跳水，国际油价则大幅拉升。据报道，当地时间7月12日，美军中央司令部称，美国东部时间当日17时，美军开始对伊朗发动新一轮打击，“旨在继续削弱其攻击在霍尔木兹海峡自由通行船只的能力”。这是美军一周内第四次对伊朗发动打击。美军中央司令部11日称，美军当天完成了本周对伊朗的第三次打击。美军打击了约140个伊朗军事目标，包括导弹和无人机发射阵地、海军装备、弹药储存设施、通信网络及海岸监视站点等。伊朗随后宣布对美军在中东地区的目标发动一系列打击。当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在接受媒体采访时坚称霍尔木兹海峡“是畅通的”，并把近期美伊互袭的责任推给伊朗。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军当地时间12日凌晨宣布，鉴于外国势力非法干预造成不安全局面，霍尔木兹海峡即日起关闭，直至另行通知以及美国停止干涉这一地区为止。截至发稿，美股三大股指期货集体走低，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.51%，标普500指数期货跌0.26%，道指期货跌0.2%。贵金属和加密货币市场下挫，国际油价则大幅拉升。现货黄金跌1.14%，报4073.37美元/盎司;现货白银大跌2.23%，报58.5美元/盎司。比特币跌0.75%，以太坊跌0.83%。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格大涨4.16%，报74.38美元/桶;布伦特原油期货价格大涨3.93%，报79.00美元/桶。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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