FPG财盛国际:炼厂利润支撑油市韧性

市场资讯07-14 19:51

7月14日，炼厂利润在近期油品市场中保持韧性，成品油需求和加工价差仍是观察原油链条的重要线索，FPG财盛国际表示，炼厂端盈利改善可能继续支撑采购需求。

　　炼厂利润走强通常意味着成品油消费具备一定支撑，在FPG财盛国际看来，若汽油、柴油和航煤需求稳定，炼厂开工率可能保持高位，从而增加原油采购。

　　油市并非只由原油库存决定，成品油库存和裂解价差同样关键。贸易商会根据炼厂利润调整采购节奏，期货曲线和现货升贴水也会随之变化。与此同时，炼厂利润也会影响原油与成品油之间的传导效率。若裂解价差扩大，炼厂更愿意维持较高开工；若成品油消费转弱，利润回落会抑制采购节奏，并削弱原油价格支撑。这也让炼厂利润成为判断油价韧性的前置指标。短线仍需防范库存数据带来的扰动。保持谨慎观察。

　　后续可关注炼厂开工率、成品油库存和裂解价差，FPG财盛国际分析称，若炼厂利润延续，原油价格下方可能获得支撑；若需求转弱，油市仍会回到震荡状态。

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