高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力

环球市场播报07-13

高盛集团本利·斯奈德（Ben Snider）研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。　　历史数据显示，在过去数十年的七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数在随后三个月内的平均回报率为-2%。但在上述七轮周期中，首次加息后12个月的标普500指数平均回报率则达到9%；除2022年加息周期外，其余各轮周期在首次加息12...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2651196997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-07-13 14:46","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2651196997","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动 盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力","media":"环球市场播报","content":"<div>\n<p>高盛集团本利·斯奈德（Ben Snider）研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。\n　　历史数据显示，在过去数十年的七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数在随后三个月内的平均回报率为-2%。但在上述七轮周期中，首次加息后12个月的标普500指数平均回报率则达到9%；除2022年加息周期外，其余各轮周期在首次加息12...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-13/doc-inihrxax7438665.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动 盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动 盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-13 14:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-13/doc-inihrxax7438665.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛集团本利·斯奈德（Ben Snider）研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。\n　　历史数据显示，在过去数十年的七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数在随后三个月内的平均回报率为-2%。但在上述七轮周期中，首次加息后12个月的标普500指数平均回报率则达到9%；除2022年加息周期外，其余各轮周期在首次加息12...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-13/doc-inihrxax7438665.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BNDC","symbol_name":"FlexShares Core Select Bond Fund","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-13/doc-inihrxax7438665.shtml","article_id":"2651196997","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651196997","pubTimestamp":1783925160,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛集团本利·斯奈德研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。　　报告指出，资产负债表薄弱的个股近期走势与美联储利率预期高度绑定，此类权益资产对货币政策前景的变动仍保持高度敏感。　　高盛进一步强调，当前美国股票市场已基本消化了短期加息预期。未来若美联储货币政策转向鸽派，或将成为催化股市上行的利好因素。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BNDC":"FlexShares Core Select Bond Fund","LTTI":"FT Vest 20+ Year Treasury & Target Income ETF","IFED":"ETRACS IFED INVEST WITH THE FED TR INDEX ETN","SFY":"SoFi Select 500 ETF","PBTP":"INVESCO 0-5 YR US TIPS ETF","BIV":"美国中期债券ETF-Vanguard","SDCP":"VIRTUS NEWFLEET SHORT DURATION CORE PLUS BOND ETF","TLTP":"Amplify Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 12% Premium Income ETF","IBIJ":"Ishares Ibonds Oct 2033 Term Tips Etf","MRSK":"Toews Agility Shares Managed Risk ETF","TFJL":"Innovator 20+ Year Treasury Bond 5 Floor ETF - July","TIPZ":"PIMCO Broad U.S. TIPS Index Ex","FDLS":"INSPIRE FIDELIS MULTI FACTOR ETF","SPD":"Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity ETF","BUFD":"FT Vest Laddered Deep Buffer ETF","RYSE":"Vest 10 Year Interest Rate Hedge ETF","IBIK":"iShares iBonds Oct 2034 Term Tips ETF","LAPR":"Innovator Premium Income 15 Buffer ETF - April","PMMF":"ISHARES PRIME MONEY MARKET ETF","LFAR":"LifeX 2057 Longevity Income ETF","TBJL":"Innovator 20+ Year Treasury Bond 9 Buffer ETF - July","FTSM":"First Trust Enhanced Short Maturity ETF","LIAW":"LifeX 2062 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","OCTT":"AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer10 Oct ETF","TTT":"ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury","GHTA":"Goose Hollow Tactical Allocation ETF","BHK":"黑岩核心债券信托","DFIP":"Dimensional Inflation-Protected Securities ETF","ILTB":"iShares Core Long-Term US Bond","LIAX":"LifeX 2063 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","APCB":"ACTIVEPASSIVE CORE BOND ETF","GDEC":"FT Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - December","AGGY":"WisdomTree Yield Enhanced U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund","LFAK":"LifeX 2052 Longevity Income ETF","SCHP":"Schwab U.S. TIPs ETF","USAF":"Atlas America ETF","SPTL":"SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF","CLSE":"Convergence Long/Short Equity ETF","LDRR":"LifeX 2045 Term Income ETF","GOVI":"Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF","NBSM":"Neuberger Berman Small-Mid Cap ETF","PULS":"PGIM Ultra Short Bond ETF","XTWY":"Bondbloxx Bloomberg Twenty Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","SCHR":"Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Tr","BBLB":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Treasury Bond 20+ Year ETF","AGIH":"iShares Inflation Hedged U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF","TLTI":"NEOS Enhanced Income 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF","LTPZ":"PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index","GCOR":"Goldman Sachs Access U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF","IBIH":"Ishares Ibonds Oct 2031 Term Tips Etf"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs Report: Fed's Monetary Policy Outlook Increases Short-term Volatility in U.S. Stocks Earnings Growth Remains a Core Driver in the Medium and Long Term","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BNDC":1.5,"LIAW":1.5,"TLTI":1.5,"BUFD":1.5,"GCOR":1.5,"IFED":1.5,"PMMF":1.5,"RYSE":1.5,"GOVI":1.5,"NBSM":1.5,"IBIK":1.5,"PULS":1.5,"CLSE":1.5,"USAF":1.5,"LIAX":1.5,"IBIH":1.5,"SFY":1.5,"LDRR":1.5,"PBTP":1.5,"SDCP":1.5,"IBIJ":1.5,"OCTT":1.5,"TIPZ":1.5,"AGIH":1.5,"BIV":1.5,"TTT":1.5,"XTWY":1.5,"LTTI":1.5,"ILTB":1.5,"TLTP":1.5,"MRSK":1.5,"LTPZ":1.5,"SCHR":1.5,"TFJL":1.5,"GHTA":1.5,"BHK":1.5,"SCHP":1.5,"TBJL":1.5,"APCB":1.5,"BBLB":1.5,"LAPR":1.5,"FDLS":1.5,"GDEC":1.5,"AGGY":1.5,"SPTL":1.5,"LFAR":1.5,"FTSM":1.5,"SPD":1.5,"DFIP":1.5,"LFAK":1.5},"content_text":"高盛集团本利·斯奈德（Ben Snider）研究团队最新发布的策略报告指出，美股中长期走势仍将由企业盈利增长主导，但若美联储未来启动加息，股市短期内将面临阶段性回调压力。\n　　历史数据显示，在过去数十年的七轮加息周期开启后，标普500指数在随后三个月内的平均回报率为-2%。但在上述七轮周期中，首次加息后12个月的标普500指数平均回报率则达到9%；除2022年加息周期外，其余各轮周期在首次加息12个月后均录得正收益。\n　　报告指出，资产负债表薄弱的个股近期走势与美联储利率预期高度绑定，此类权益资产对货币政策前景的变动仍保持高度敏感。具体来看，高浮动利率债务股票组合（GSXUHIFL）近期与短期利率表现出显著的相关性。\n　　高盛进一步强调，当前美国股票市场已基本消化了短期加息预期。未来若美联储货币政策转向鸽派，或将成为催化股市上行的利好因素。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：龙运翔","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651196997","isCrawlerRequest":true}

高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动 盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力

精彩评论

高盛报告：美联储货币政策前景加大美股短期波动盈利增长仍为中长期核心驱动力