小摩：AI需求强韧未见周期疲态、存储器是关键瓶颈、ASIC需求增速将超GPU

格隆汇07-14

摩根大通半导体行业分析报告指，人工智能(AI)需求依然强劲，得益于持续不断的新大模型发布，英伟达业绩持续增长及Token消耗量的持续上涨。小摩分析指，当前半导体周期虽已进入上升周期的第三年，即周期后半段，传统来讲这通常预示着周期峰值将至，但此次需求趋势持续超越历史水平，预计实质性产能增长到2027年底及2028年才会出现。 1. 短缺情况不仅限于GPU，还包括先进晶圆代工产能(尤其是3纳米晶圆)、...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2651123727?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-07-14 09:57","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","id":"2651123727","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"小摩：AI需求强韧未见周期疲态、存储器是关键瓶颈、ASIC需求增速将超GPU","media":"格隆汇","content":"<div>\n<p>摩根大通半导体行业分析报告指，人工智能(AI)需求依然强劲，得益于持续不断的新大模型发布，英伟达业绩持续增长及Token消耗量的持续上涨。小摩分析指，当前半导体周期虽已进入上升周期的第三年，即周期后半段，传统来讲这通常预示着周期峰值将至，但此次需求趋势持续超越历史水平，预计实质性产能增长到2027年底及2028年才会出现。\n1. 短缺情况不仅限于GPU，还包括先进晶圆代工产能(尤其是3纳米晶圆)、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_gelonghui","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小摩：AI需求强韧未见周期疲态、存储器是关键瓶颈、ASIC需求增速将超GPU</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小摩：AI需求强韧未见周期疲态、存储器是关键瓶颈、ASIC需求增速将超GPU\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-14 09:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根大通半导体行业分析报告指，人工智能(AI)需求依然强劲，得益于持续不断的新大模型发布，英伟达业绩持续增长及Token消耗量的持续上涨。小摩分析指，当前半导体周期虽已进入上升周期的第三年，即周期后半段，传统来讲这通常预示着周期峰值将至，但此次需求趋势持续超越历史水平，预计实质性产能增长到2027年底及2028年才会出现。\n1. 短缺情况不仅限于GPU，还包括先进晶圆代工产能(尤其是3纳米晶圆)、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0106261372.USD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","article_id":"2651123727","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651123727","pubTimestamp":1783994248,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_gelonghui","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"摩根大通半导体行业分析报告指，人工智能(AI)需求依然强劲，得益于持续不断的新大模型发布，英伟达业绩持续增长及Token消耗量的持续上涨。小摩分析指，当前半导体周期虽已进入上升周期的第三年，即周期后半","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IXG":"全球金融业ETF-iShares","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","JPO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","JPX":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","ON":"安森美半导体","ASIC":"Ategrity Specialty Holdings","BK4141":"半导体产品","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","IYF":"金融指数ETF-iShares Dow Jones","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IYG":"iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4588":"碎股","UYG":"两倍做多金融股ETF-ProShares","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","FNCL":"Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","JPMO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2298322129.HKD":"BGF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","FTXO":"First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","XLF":"金融ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF"},"translate_title":"Xiaomo: AI demand is tough and there is no cycle fatigue, memory is the key bottleneck, and ASIC demand growth will exceed that of GPU","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VTHR":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"IYF":0.6,"KBWB":0.6,"VFH":0.6,"IYG":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"ON":1.5,"FTXO":0.6,"UYG":0.6,"IXG":0.6,"ASIC":1.5,"JPO":0.6,"JPX":0.6,"XLF":0.6,"QTOC":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"FNCL":0.6},"content_text":"摩根大通半导体行业分析报告指，人工智能(AI)需求依然强劲，得益于持续不断的新大模型发布，英伟达业绩持续增长及Token消耗量的持续上涨。小摩分析指，当前半导体周期虽已进入上升周期的第三年，即周期后半段，传统来讲这通常预示着周期峰值将至，但此次需求趋势持续超越历史水平，预计实质性产能增长到2027年底及2028年才会出现。\n1. 短缺情况不仅限于GPU，还包括先进晶圆代工产能(尤其是3纳米晶圆)、高带宽存储器(HBM)及其他存储器组件、ABF基板、先进封装产能以及CPU。在晶圆代工领域，台积电的龙头地位极其稳固，竞争对手短期内几乎无法对其构成实质威胁。\n2. 存储器仍然是AI最关键的瓶颈。然而，随着客户对成本上涨的抵制情绪日益高涨，预计价格上升速度将比上半年有所放缓。该行预计到2027年，约30%的存储器供应或被长期协议锁定。\n3. 超大规模云端服务供应商投入仍然强劲，企业将AI作为必选项而非可选，降低了近期资本支出放缓的可能性。\n4. 随着商业化程度提升及用户更愿意为差异化的AI功能付费，预计AI模型开发商将在今年展现更强劲的经济效益。\n5. 芯片需求正趋向多元化，ASIC(特定应用集成电路，如谷歌的TPU、Meta的MTIA)的需求增长速度预计将超过GPU。随着时间推移，芯片之间的差异的重要性将被全系统解决方案替代。\n6. 中国台湾仍然是首选市场，通过台积电、ASIC供应链、半导体设备公司以及更深厚的技术生态系统，提供了更广泛的AI投资机会。韩国的存储器行业更为集中，故可能面临较大的盈利和估值波动风险。\n7. 数据中心的经济效益依然严峻，预计建设1GW数据中心需要约500至600亿美元的投资，而此前只需约350亿美元，新增成本主要来自存储器价格的上涨。需求边际增长放缓或超大规模云端服务供应商资本支出缩减，是整个半导体生态系统面临的最重要风险。","kind":"live","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.50.0","shortVersion":"4.50.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651123727","isCrawlerRequest":true}