沪指险守3900点，存储龙头一天5次跌停！“二冰”出现后，A股能否修复？

每日经济新闻07-13

记者|肖芮冬编辑|赵云　　7月13日，市场震荡调整，三大指数集体大跌。截至收盘，沪指跌2.06%，深成指跌3.48%，创业板指跌3.1%。　　板块来看，医药板块逆势走强，银行板块震荡拉升，电子特气概念表现活跃。下跌方面，光纤概念遭重挫，存储芯片概念集体大跌，MLCC概念震荡下挫。　　全市场超4600只个股下跌，逾百股跌停。沪深两市成交额2.82万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量...

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After the appearance of \"Second Ice\", can A shares be repaired?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600999":1.81,"603986":1.88,"000001":1.93,"06099":1.81,"03986":1.88},"content_text":"记者|肖芮冬    编辑|赵云    \n　　7月13日，市场震荡调整，三大指数集体大跌。截至收盘，沪指跌2.06%，深成指跌3.48%，创业板指跌3.1%。\n　　板块来看，医药板块逆势走强，银行板块震荡拉升，电子特气概念表现活跃。下跌方面，光纤概念遭重挫，存储芯片概念集体大跌，MLCC概念震荡下挫。\n　　全市场超4600只个股下跌，逾百股跌停。沪深两市成交额2.82万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量5708亿。\n　　今天午后，A股突现神奇一幕：\n　　早间就连续跌破多个支撑位（比如年线）的沪指，在13：29下探至日内新低——3902.61点后，与其他主要股指同步开启了短暂反攻。\n\n　　这里值得玩味的是，3902.61点，恰好是今年4月7日沪指盘中的高点。次日（4月8日）迎来跳空高开，留下了3902.61~3926.25这一段缺口。\n　　也就是说，今天沪指完成了“一分钱不差”的精准补缺，随后市场资金达成某种共识，开启了一小段脉冲反弹。\n　　可惜，短暂反弹并未扭转恐慌。午后跌停家数持续增加；14：34，沪指将日内低点刷新至3900.67点，才再度反弹。\n\n　　这对所有市场参与者来说，有何启示呢？\n　　首先，就指数而言，止跌的第一步是后续几天“不再创出新低”。\n　　若个股情绪未同步回暖，则需要（对指数贡献度更大的）权重股率先止跌；近期来看，沪指往往更需要银行等红利板块的支撑，而创业板指（以及科创板）还受到外围科技股走势影响。\n　　比如今天，韩国股市就多次向下熔断，压制了科技股修复的情绪。以成交额达377.37亿元、居全A股第二的兆易创新为代表，高位科技股面临的局势仍不乐观。\n　　分时图来看，兆易创新今天分别于13：19、13：22、14：10、14：21和14：52，共五次触及跌停，并最终收于跌停价。\n\n　　其次，尽管日内有沪指精准补缺后触发的反弹，但从日K来看，主要股指在上周五大跌后再度向下，目前仍处于比较难看的形态。\n\n　　这意味着，第二个冰点出现后（上周五午后为“一冰”），市场短线迎来修复的概率在变大，但修复能“一步到位”的概率在变小，转而倾向于“以时间换空间”。\n　　当然，我们仍然期待“大奇迹日”出现。因为大阳线是提振情绪最快最有效的方式。\n　　最后是一点提醒：\n　　“泥沙俱下”的行情中，我们不必太纠结自己做错了什么——只要还在市场里，总会有一些极端行情是无法规避的。\n　　招商证券研报认为，择时层面，目前市场尚未完全“转危为安”，虽然上周五量能情绪有所回升，但估值分布仍在收缩，且本周重要IPO事件或进一步加大市场波动，故短期内仍建议维持中低仓位观望。\n　　具体来看，一方面，当前市场基本面仍未明显改善，从最新通胀数据上来看，CPI同比增速为1.0%，低于市场预期中值的1.18%，且CPI-PPI剪刀差继续走扩，表明当前内需层面仍偏弱且结构性景气度仍未缓解。\n　　另一方面，目前市场的情绪与价量波动明显加大，其中该机构核心观察的PB离散度目前仍偏弱，表明市场整体估值处于顶部收缩状态。\n　　此外，7月16日有重要IPO事件，从最近一期重要科技股上市（摩尔线程2025/12/5）的情况来看，虽然低流通股模式下对市场资金虹吸效应不大且长期有望进一步提振科技板块中枢，但短期内仍会对市场造成波动（摩尔上市前3日科创50走势分别为-1.24%/-0.89%/1.36%），故从择时层面来看，建议仍维持观望态度，待局势明朗后再做决断。\n　　申万宏源策略团队则表示，调整波段已进入收尾阶段：5-6月非科技方向先调整，6-7月科技赛道后调整，调整结构正走向完备，赚钱效应、动量效应收缩充分，调整波段已具备收尾条件。\n　　但新一轮上涨还需徐徐图之。2025年11月中旬开始的算力通胀波段，行情演绎的宽度和深度都已趋于充分。短期，资金供需惯性被打破已是大概率，这可能是科技赛道中波段行情分段的一个节点。科技赛道行情节奏放缓，进入等待新的产业重大催化的阶段。行情再启动，大概率是新的行情阶段，而不是上一阶段行情线索的简单延续。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：宋雅芳","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651117199","isCrawlerRequest":true}