国际金价失守4100美元，地缘冲突为何没能提振走势？

澎湃新闻07-13

黄金价格再度下跌。　　7月13日亚洲时段开盘后，现货黄金跌破4100美元/盎司关口，盘中一度跌破4050美元/盎司。截至发稿，据Wind数据，现货黄金报4056.795美元/盎司，下跌1.54%；COMEX黄金期货报4064.9美元/盎司，跌幅达1.19%。　　国内金饰市场价格随之下跌。7月13日，国内多家品牌足金饰品克价下跌至1240元左右，和年内高点相比下跌约470元，跌幅超27%。具体来看...

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Why did geopolitical conflict fail to boost the trend?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SHNY":0.6,"GLDI":1.5,"YGLD":0.6,"GLDY":0.6,"GLL":0.6,"OUNZ":0.6,"GLDM":0.6,"DULL":0.6,"BAR":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"UGL":0.6,"FGDL":0.6,"BGLD":1.5,"GDMN":1.5,"USG":0.6,"DZZ":0.6,"IGLD":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"KGLD":0.6,"AAAU":0.6,"IAUM":0.6,"IAUI":0.6,"SGOL":0.6,"DGZ":0.6,"DGP":0.6,"IAU":0.6},"content_text":"黄金价格再度下跌。　　7月13日亚洲时段开盘后，现货黄金跌破4100美元/盎司关口，盘中一度跌破4050美元/盎司。截至发稿，据Wind数据，现货黄金报4056.795美元/盎司，下跌1.54%；COMEX黄金期货报4064.9美元/盎司，跌幅达1.19%。 　　国内金饰市场价格随之下跌。7月13日，国内多家品牌足金饰品克价下跌至1240元左右，和年内高点相比下跌约470元，跌幅超27%。具体来看，周大福、潮宏基、老凤祥、周大生足金饰品克价最新报1240元/克。更有多家品牌已经跌破1240元，周生生、六福珠宝、金至尊足金饰品克价报1238元/克，老庙黄金足金饰品克价报1237元/克，周六福珠宝足金饰品克价报1235元/克。 　　消息面上，据新华社报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军7月12日凌晨宣布，霍尔木兹海峡即日起关闭，任何船只不得通行。声明称，数小时前，数艘船只试图沿未经伊方批准的路线航行，并无视伊方关于修正航向的提示和警告。其中一艘船只关闭自动识别系统，被伊方警告性射击击中并停航。美国中央司令部随后宣布，美军已发起本周内第三轮对伊朗的打击行动。　　受此消息影响，原油价格持续上升，引发的通胀担忧和美联储加息预期强化压制了黄金的表现。　　“主要因素是美伊紧张局势再度重启，投资者现阶段普遍不愿持有黄金和白银，这就是我们看到金价向4100美元水平回落的原因。”道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示。　　中信期货指出，短期来看，地缘冲突升级本应提升黄金避险需求，但当前市场更关注其对能源价格和通胀预期的影响。短期黄金或维持低位震荡，地缘冲突反复提供阶段性支撑，但能源通胀和美联储偏鹰预期仍限制反弹空间。　　对于未来的黄金走势，市场观点出现分歧。Kitco新闻每周黄金调查显示，华尔街分析师意见分裂。本期调查共有13位分析师参与，其中5位（占比38%）预期金价未来一周将上涨，3位（23%）预期下跌，另有5位（38%）预期金价将维持横盘整理。　　StoneX Group高级大宗商品经纪人Daniel Pavilonis判断，黄金与白银在获得实质性支撑前仍将进一步走弱。他指出，当前技术图形显示黄金走势破位明显，短期内仍有继续下探空间。他分析称，此前推动金银上涨的部分亚洲市场资金已转向科技股等其他领域，黄金短期内“光芒不再”。　　Ninepoint Partners高级投资组合经理Nawojka Wachowiak指出，目前市场几乎把注意力全部放在美联储政策和美元走势上，但黄金价格的长期驱动因素仍然存在。　　在Wachowiak看来，央行持续购金仍是黄金市场最重要的支撑之一，黄金一度跌破每盎司4000美元后迅速反弹，显示实物需求依然坚实。　　“我认为非常有意思、也非常关键的一点是，黄金守住了4000美元水平。它之所以能够守住，是因为实物市场中存在一个重要买家。每当我们看到回调，这个买家就会入场。” Wachowiak说，“如果有这样规模的买家在回调时入场，你就会看到市场形成底部。”　　嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen建议，在黄金长期下行走势中继续参考反弹做空的思路。短线跌破4060美元/盎司后或下探4025美元/盎司区域。更下方的3960美元/盎司可以视为阶段性底部，尽管近期走势较弱，但短期跌破该水平的风险较低，更可能看到的是持续的低位震荡。而反弹方向仍需耐心等待，4165美元/盎司有效突破后才能激发更多多头入场。（文章来源：澎湃新闻）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651112148","isCrawlerRequest":true}